Draft Inspection

Last week one of our readers participated in a draft and he asked me to assess the results. The interesting element here is that I had provided him with a tiered cheat sheet and a game plan prior to draft day. This was the first time that I had done this for someone and I was interested to hear the results.

A little background is in order. The reader is a former astute fantasy baseball player. Over the years he has gravitated away from playing in multiple leagues and has given less time to player analysis. This year he did not do any research and it was up to me to bring him up to speed. This is important because I don't want to mislead you into thinking that I was working with a clean slate.

The league has an atypical setup. The rosters are shallow: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, Util, 4 SP, 3 RP, 5 bench and 2 DL spots. It is a H2H, daily roster change league and the scoring categories are as follows:

Offense: R, HR, RBI, SB, TB, K, OBP
Pitching: W, W%, K/9, IP, SV, ERA, WHIP

I provided him with an Excel file containing a tiered cheat sheet, an overall top 30, ADP values from ESPN, and a plan that included a general strategy and some notes about the cheat sheet. Here are the results:

C: Chris Snyder (20th round)
1B: Paul Konerko (12)
2B: B.J. Upton (3)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Miguel Tejada (8)
OF: Carl Crawford (2)
OF: Alfonso Soriano (4)
OF: Alex Rios (5)
Util: Corey Hart (7)
BN: Dustin Pedroia (18)
BN: Kevin Kouzmanoff (21)

SP: Cole Hamels (6)
SP: John Smoltz (10)
SP: Yovani Gallardo (13)
SP: James Shields (14)
RP: Billy Wagner (9)
RP: Francisco Cordero (11)
RP: Matt Capps (16)
BN: Adam Wainwright (15)
BN: Ted Lilly (17)
BN: Rand Johnson (19)

The reader took Miguel Cabrera with the number 7 pick, with Hanley Ramirez still on the board. This was by design. I feel that Hanley carries some risk heading into this season, and it’s a risk I would rather not take. I had him rated 8th overall and Cabrera 6th overall. On the way back Ryan Braun was still available, but he drafted Carl Crawford instead. His rationale was that he wanted to grab elite speed to balance out his selection of Cabrera in the first. I would have taken Braun here but Crawford is a fine pick.

BJ Upton is a STEAL in the 3rd round, let alone 27th overall. The average may drop into the .280 range but he will threaten 30/30 this season. I was able to land Upton this late in one league but I used a 2nd round pick on him in two other leagues.

This is where the confusion sets in for me: Alfonso Soriano is on the board 34 picks into the draft. Granted, strikeouts are a category and Soriano will accumulate 125+ this year. But a potential 40/40 hitter should not be around this late, and neither should Rios at 47th overall.

Pitchers apparently were flying off the board yet our loyal reader stuck to the plan and waited until Round 6 to grab his first arm. Cole Hamels should thrive in this scoring format, provided he has a healthy season. Corey Hart in the 7th round is incredible value (probably 4 rounds worth). Tejada in the 8th is solid, as is Wagner in the 9th.

Seven of the next eight picks were arms and all are at great values. The only pick that I would not have made in this sequence was Adam Wainwright. I am a little nervous about his innings jump last year (127 inning increase from 2006 to 2007). I probably would have taken Lilly at this spot and Dustin McGowan later on.

Pedroia and Kouzmanoff will probably not start too many games for this squad. I would probably drop Pedroia right away and grab Manny Parra (whom I know is still available). Kouzmanoff is in for a nice year but it would be impossible to start him over Hart in the Util spot or Cabrera at 3B. I would consider dropping him for another arm.

Part of the plan I devised revolved around the two DL spots. The reader correctly made sure to grab two guys that were DL bound (Gallardo and Johnson). This allowed him to pick up both Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez after the draft. I probably would have taken Parra over Volquez but that is just splitting hairs.

Overall this will be a top 3 team. Strikeouts (on the offensive side) are the only apparent weakness. Since I have a vested interest in this team’s performance I will be monitoring the progress all season. Hopefully this one will be a contender.

NL Only Auction League - Part II

For all of us who’ve gone from having one fantasy team to someone who is in more leagues than we can keep track of, our first experience in fantasy sports will always be something memorable. Whether you were one of the trendsetters who were doing this when the commissioner had to tally up stats by hand every Sunday or you came to the party a bit later, one thing is for sure……. you are now hooked. My first fantasy league was an 8 team, NL only auction league. That league is still going strong with the same basic core of 8 owners that have made fantasy sports more than just a passing hobby. While the league has lost a few owners, we’ve added some passionate ones that have kept the competition at a nice level. Our draft was last Friday, and as expected with any auction draft, there were a few surprises.

Here are the basic rules – it’s a head to head points league with an extra OF, MI & CI slot. There’s a $330 salary cap that gets you 24 players. Included in this is 1 keeper from the prior year at the price you paid to acquire them ($1 for pickups and carry-over price in trades). We start 5 SPs, 1 RP & 1 P. The scoring structure is as follows:

Scoring for Batting Categories
1B – Singles 1 point
2B – Doubles 2 points
3B – Triples 3 points
BB - Walks (Batters) 1 point
CYC - Hitting for the Cycle 10 points
GSHR - Grand Slam Home Runs 4 points
HP - Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR - Home Runs 4 points
KO - Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
R – Runs 1 point
RBI - Runs Batted In 1 point
SB - Stolen Bases 1.25 points

Scoring for Pitching Categories
BBI - Walks Issued (Pitchers) -0.5 points
BS - Blown Saves -2 points
CG - Complete Games 5 points
ER - Earned Runs -1 point
HA - Hits Allowed -0.25 points
HB - Hit Batsmen -0.25 points
INN – Innings 1 point
K - Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1.25 points
L – Losses -5 points
NH - No-Hitters 10 points
PG - Perfect Games 15 points
QS - Quality Starts 2 points
S – Saves 5 points
SO – Shutouts 10 points
W – Wins 10 points

As Chris mentioned in his post-draft analysis, a hot pitcher can easily win a week for you with this point structure. The holy grail in this league is a CGSO, which can get you 40 or more points in a league where 280 is typically enough to win a week.

Going into an auction draft, the best strategy to have is to not have a strict strategy at all and to be flexible. Anything can happen & you have to make sure to adjust your budgets based on what’s taken place. It’s hard to let an opponent get someone you want, but there comes a time when you have to just let it go and move on to the next player. There’s so much psychology in an auction draft and reading your opponents can be just as important as knowing your stats.

On to the analysis. We all know the stats by now, so I’ll tackle this analysis from a salary cap perspective. To start, I had a tough choice with my keeper decision. I narrowed my choices to James Loney for $1 or Brandon Phillips for $25. I figured Phillips would go in the mid $30s while Loney would be had for something in the low $20s. Based on these projected inflation numbers, I decided to go with Loney. $1 down....$329 to go.

The first player to go in the draft was Prince Fielder for $45. People in this league tend to call out the big names first, so the dollar amounts for these players is sometimes skewed higher because people will spend a bit recklessly when they have their entire cap in front of them. However, just 3 players deep, someone called out Bengie Molina. I hate spending money on catchers. Especially this year in an NL only league. While everyone was saving their cash for the impact guys, I was happy to swoop in and grab Molina for $6. I would not have gone a dollar higher though.

The names you’d expect all went next and their prices were scary to me. I’m always reluctant to spend big early and it got me in trouble this year. 22 picks in and the only money I’d spent was $6 for Bengie Molina. There were only a few big names left – David Wright, Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday & Brandon Webb. I knew Wright would be too much for my budget (there are a few Met fans in the league) so at that point, I decided that I would not let all of those guys get past me and come out with at least one. Howard was called next & I ponied up $49 to get him. While I’m not a huge fan of him in this league, he should be a top 10 offensive player. His Ks are certainly a detriment, but his power numbers will more than make up for it. In his MVP year of 2006, he was the 5th best offensive player in the league. Last year, in his down year, he was 18th.

The next player I grabbed was Aramis Ramirez for $37. Again, I wasn’t necessarily targeting him, but when the bidding seemed to slow down around $35, I couldn’t resist. His production (should be 300-25-100) in a dangerous Cubs lineup makes him a $40 player. Having kept Loney, I had my 1B, 3B & CI slot already occupied with some big names.

As Chris pointed out in his analysis, there is a common misconception in this league that big power, big strikeout guys are not valuable because of the negative points for striking out. Simply put, that’s a narrow view on the stats and that logic will get you in trouble. I grabbed Adam Dunn next for $27 and was pretty happy about it. You can pretty much guarantee 40 HRs from Dunn and a ton of Ks. But, his 100+ walks a year balance out his high K rate. Dunn is about as low-risk as it gets in this league. He’s not going to be much better than last year (if he’s even better at all), but you know he’s not going to be much worse.

I tend to spend a lot on pitching in this league. Whether or not this works is still up for debate. But, I came in 2nd 2 years ago and won the league last year with this strategy, so I’m sticking with it. I had 5 big guys targeted that I was willing to spend on. They were Webb, Hamels, Chris Young, Brett Myers & John Smoltz. I knew Santana would go for over $50, & I wanted no part of that. Not that he won’t be worth it, but I just didn’t want to tie that much up in 1 pitcher. Webb went for $50, which was higher than I thought he’d go for. I assumed mid $40s would be where he’d go, but the owner who wanted him sort of tipped his hand that he was willing to break the bank and another astute league member seized the opportunity to bid him up. So that left me with the next 4 pitchers on my list. I set a budget of $100 to get 3 of them. Chris Young was the first of the group called, & I grabbed him for $30. Young can’t finish his own games, but his high K/9 rate combined with his home in a great pitcher’s park will provide me with an excellent start to my pitching staff. And for only $30.

Hamels was the next player called and I was willing to go up in the $40s to get him. Luckily, it didn’t get that far and he was mine for $39. I love how Hamels improved last year and built himself into a bona fide stud. He gets a lot of Ks and pitches on a team that will win a lot of games for him, even when he’s not on. Citizens Bank Park is somewhat of a detriment, but that he plays on one of the league’s best teams easily washes out that concern for me.

Continuing the spending spree, I dropped $10 on the next player called, Brad Lidge. You can’t win in this league without 2 reliable closers to run out there every week. There just isn’t enough depth at starting pitching to be able to get consistent production from 6 guys every week. Utilizing that flex pitching spot with a second closer gives you a much better chance to win. Lidge might not be the definition of “reliable,” but a new start in Philadelphia and a healthy year should set him up for a nice year. His spring training knee surgery does not seem to be an issue. Unfortunately, I have to bench him in week 1 since Philly seems to be cautious in handling his return.

I took a bit of a break, and waited to spend until John Smoltz was called out 15 picks after Lidge. I was already $69 into my budget of $100 for my top 3 pitchers, so with Myers still available, I wouldn’t have gone past $30 to get Smoltz. That’s exactly what it took to get him & I had my top 3 with $1 to spare. Not too long after I dropped money on Smoltz, news broke that he was experiencing arm troubles. With any 40 year old pitcher, this is definitely cause for concern. It sounds like he is fine & that the Braves are just taking it easy with him, but it’s another pitcher that I can’t start in week one. Myers was actually called next and went for the same $30.

Who doesn’t love Cory Hart? I guess the rest of the people in my league because I was able to get the darling of fantasy baseball for just $22. Granted, his numbers are better suited for a roto league, but I couldn’t pass this one up at that price. An improving player on an improving team should provide me with some stability as my 2nd outfielder.

Along with my pitching strategy that was successful the past couple of years, I’ve always been a big believer in spending money on quality middle infielders in this league. I was not alone as all of the top middle infielders went early, and they went for a lot. There’s no doubt I made a huge error in calculating this. Looking back, it might have been better to lock in Brandon Phillips at $25 since he ended up going for $40. Because of this, I was forced to spend money on one player who I never thought I’d draft – Kaz Matsui (and that was before his anal fissure). I had to pay $8 for him, & I was not happy about it. But at this point, I pretty much had no choice as there were no quality 2Bs left. Also, he’s another player I won’t be able to start in week 1.

I was able to get Yuniel Escobar for $11 a bit later. I really like his potential based on the numbers he put up toward the end of last year and the fact that he should hit 2nd in a nice Braves lineup. This is definitely not the potent MI that I was looking for so far though.

The rest of my draft rounded out as follows: The other Chris Young for $20; Hiroki Kuroda for $8; Saito for $7; Mark Reynolds for $3; Chad Tracy for $2; Nick Johnson for $2 (a bargain here, but this was before it was announced that he’d be the every day 1B in Washington); Kyle Kendrick for $1; Willy Tavares for $6; Chris Duncan for $8; Shawn Hill for $1; Carlos Villanueva for $1; & Ian Stewart for $1.

I am pretty set up at the corner spots with Howard, A-Ram, Loney, Nick Johnson, & Chad Tracy/Mark Reynolds. I am definitely weak up the middle, but I know there are other teams that have needs at CI. Although I never like to rely on the needs of others, hopefully I can fill my MI needs with a trade. Knowing now that I could have gotten Hanley Ramirez for the same price as Ryan Howard and still put together a good corner infield rotation frustrates me quite a bit.

My lineup (after some pickups to fill my MI needs) projects as follows:

C – Molina ($6)
1B – Howard ($49)
2B – Matsui (Picked up Loretta to fill in) ($8)
SS – Yuniel Escobar ($11)
3B – Aramis Ramirez ($37)
MI – Eugenio Velez (pickup)
CI – Loney ($1 Keeper)
OF – Dunn ($27)
OF – Hart ($22)
OF – Chris Young ($20)
OF – Chris Duncan/Willy Tavares ($8/$6)

SP – Hamels ($39)
SP – Chris Young ($30)
SP – Smoltz ($30)
SP – Kuroda ($8)
SP – Shawn Hill/Paul Maholm/Carlos Villanueva
RP – Lidge ($10)
RP – Saito ($7)

Thoughts?

Fantasy Baseball Expert League

On Monday night Mike and I participated in the first annual Greener on the Other Side Expert League. It is a 12 team 5x5 roto league hosted on Yahoo!. The roster size is a bit different than we are accustomed to as there is a fifth OF spot and a second Util spot. We were both excited to be able to draft one more time this spring before the games started to count (this was the 4th league for both of us). The particiapants were Adam Ronis of Newsday, Jordan Frank from Roto Rob, Brad Stewart from MLB Front Office, Geoff Stein from Mock Draft Central, Rudy Gamble from Razzball, Eric Stashin from Roto Professor, Sean Salsbery from Warning Track Power, Jay Sarney and Brett "Ahman" Greenfield from Greener On Other Side, Ken Mathe from Roto Advice, and a "Regular Guy" that that the writers at GOTOS selected from their stable of loyal readers.

Round 1
We were handed the 6th pick in this draft and were really hoping for Holliday to fall to us. Unfortunately, Brett nabbed him with the 5th pick. Rollins was our next highest rated player, so we grabbed him. The party line this year is that Rollins had a career year in 2007 and is likely to regress this season. I agree that he may have had a career year but I see no reason for a big correction/regression this year. We were happy to grab a 25-40 player to anchor our offense.

Round 2
At 19 overall we could not pass up B.J. Upton. He has ended up on all of my mixed-league teams this year. We definitely feel that he can build on his 2007 season of 24 HR and 22 SB. Manager Joe Maddon has been on record suggesting that Upton and Crawford will have the green light all season. A 30-30 season is not out of the question. Our team now has two elite middle infielders that hit for power and have 30+ steal potential. At this point we are very happy with the early goings of the draft.

Round 3
The guys at Greener were at it again. They snatched Rios right out of our queue. Our next highest rated player was Nick Markakis. We surveyed the landscape and felt that there was a chance that he might fall to us in the 4th round if we passed on him. We opted to roll the dice and drafted Magglio Ordonez. There is nothing sexy about this pick – he is an elite hitter in a great offense. The third round is the proper place for him to go.

Round 4
Damn! Markakis went 5 picks later to Rudy over at Razzball. Looking at our board we felt that we should grab another bat and decided to go with Travis Hafner. Adam Dunn was our other option but we chose to bypass the AVG killer and take a chance on a bounce back season from Pronk. Dunn is likely to hit for more power than Hafner, but it wouldn’t be out of the question for each of them to hit 35 to 40 HRs. If Hafner comes close to Dunn’s HR output then he is likely to pace him in AVG as well.

Round 5
At this point we have our SS, 2B, 1 OF and a 1B. The remaining 3B options were not very enticing but we had a back-up plan in the event that we miss out on the top 8. With that in mind we decided to close the book on the best middle infield in the league. We grabbed Robinson Cano. This allowed us to completely ignore the middle infield positions for the rest of the draft – no reaching for Kelly Johnson in the 9th round for this squad. Grabbing another solid .300+ hitter will also allow us to take some chances later on the in the draft (such as a Cust, Swisher or Ankiel).

Round 6
Time to grab an arm. Mike is very high on Chris Young this year so he became the obvious choice. I actually have Gallardo rated higher than Young but we both knew that we could pass on Yovani and still grab him a few rounds later. The knock on Young is that he doesn’t go deep into games which cuts into his potential for wins. It is a valid concern, but we are willing to take the chance that he can average 6+ innings per start this season. If he can ever get close to 200 innings his strikeout total would be a comfortable 185+.

Round 7
As indicated earlier, we had our eyes on some big power, scary batting average guys and Swisher was at the top of the list. The positional flexibility is nice (1B and OF) but our intention was to use him as an OF. This league starts five OFs and the pool is not particularly deep. A 35 HR, .260 AVG season is what we hope to get.

Round 8
After we grabbed Swisher the top tier of closers was exhausted. Our intention heading into the draft was to walk away with 3 closers while ignoring the top tier. If K-Rod or Nathan was available for us in this round we would have taken a long look, but we were happy to see them get taken. We decided to pull the trigger on Jim Thome. He is DH eligible only, but with 2 Util spots we felt like we could not pass up his power. This will not hamstring us because we’ll still have some flexibility with the second Util spot and also with Swisher’s dual eligibility.

Round 9
As planned, Gallardo fell to us in the 9th round. He will finish as a top 10 SP this year. The knee surgery has kept his ADP in check (he typically goes around 120 overall). I have sung his praises enough on this site already so I will spare you the glowing remarks. The only annoyance of this pick is that he will be on the DL for the first two weeks of the season and the league set-up doesn’t include DL spots.

Round 10
We were dead set on taking a closer with this pick. Rivera was our first choice but Rudy was at it again, grabbing him 5 picks before our turn. Valverde was the next closer on our list. Moving on…

Round 11
…let’s grab closer #2. We were debating between Street, Capps and Soria. Mike felt more comfortable taking the established player and I concurred. We grabbed Street, who promptly blew the first save opportunity of the season 10 hours later. Let’s hope it’s not a sign of things to come.

Round 12
We gave our team a once over and realized that we were long on power and light on speed. By taking Rollins and Upton with our first two picks we got lulled into a false sense of SB security, only to completely ignore the category until now. To not fall too far behind we decided to grab Taveras. He will steal 30+ bases and hit around .300. If he can stay healthy all year he has the potential to approach 50 steals, but 30 is our conservative estimate.

Round 13
Our 3B contingency plan falls into place. Kouzmanoff is being undervalued this year, largely because of his slow start to last season and his home park. Kouz is likely to hit 25 HRs this year with a .290 AVG. He is a tremendous value 150 picks into the draft.

Round 14
Part 2 of our contingency plan. We are confident in our Kouzmanoff projection. However, if he doesn’t pan out we wanted to back him up with the 2008 AL ROY: Evan Longoria. We were both aware of his demotion to AAA prior to making this pick. We have the ability to wait for him to be called up in June and then reap the benefits thereafter. A 15-10 second half is certainly within his grasp.

Round 15
With our infield largely set (except at CI) we decided to grab our fourth OF. Many pundits are anticipating big things from Milledge this year. A 20-20 campaign would be nice (and certainly feasible), but with Manny Acta’s anti-SB philosophy we might have to temper the speed projections. We think 20-15 is attainable.

Round 16
The plan for this pick was to grab our third and final closer. We had both Wood and Sherrill queued up. When Wood was selected a few spots ahead of us we grabbed Sherrill and didn’t look back.

Round 17
Randy Johnson – Mike and I were debating whether or not to select him since the 14th round. I have RJ safely in my top 25 SP rankings this year while Mike does not. However, at this point in the draft there aren’t too many starters out there that can strike out a batter per inning. The big question with Johnson is health. If he can make 20+ starts then we will get proper value out of this selection.

Round 18
Our second big power, batting average disaster pick goes to Jack Cust. There’s not too much to say here other than he will likely end up with 30 HRs and 200+ strikeouts. Hopefully the A’s don’t have a quick hook with him this year. The Japan series did not go well for Cust (0-3 with a walk and three strikeouts). We are not ready to panic just yet.

Round 19
We felt like we needed some more speed here so we took Theriot. If he can remain at the top of the order (which seems increasingly likely now that a Brian Roberts deal is off the table) he will be able to pile up runs and SBs.

Round 20
If Mike were running this draft solo I’m sure he would have taken Tom Gorzelanny by now. Fortunately for me (I’m not high on Tom G. this year) Gorzelanny was taken right before our turn in the 20th. We decided to take a chance with the Reds’ Edinson Volquez. His rotation spot is locked up. Hopefully he can find some better command while maintaining a high K rate.

Round 21
This was our most boring pick of the draft. Mark Teahen will probably end up with a 15-10, .285 line. He gives us positional flexibility (1B and OF) and a steady stat line that fills all of the categories.

Round 22
Our strategy over the next few picks was to fill out our pitching staff. We wanted to have at least three arms on our bench so the idea was to walk away from this draft with 9 SPs. To continue our trend of selection pitchers who have trouble racking up innings we selected Randy Wolf. A high K rate and a spacious new home ballpark were the motivators here.

Round 23
Greg Maddux is the model of consistency. He doesn’t strike out many batters but he seems to find a way to win double-digit games every year. Our staff already includes a lot of risky, big strikeout pitchers so we felt that we could afford the hit in K’s with this pick.

Round 24
Ervin Santana has locked up a rotation spot with the injuries to Lackey and Escobar. His home/road splits have dominated any discussion of Santana throughout his career. We will likely start him at home initially and monitor his progress on the road.

Round 25
My sleeper pick of the year, whom I’ve taken in every draft thus far, is Mark Prior. No one doubts his ability. If he can make 22 starts this year he will put up some very interesting numbers. That ballpark will only help his cause. He will likely not take the mound until late-May, and without having the ability to put him on the DL it makes this pick a little risky. We just felt that we needed to take some big chances with our pitching staff.

Round 26
Manny Parra is another selection in the mold of Edinson Volquez. A young, big upside big K SP on a team with a good offense. Hopefully he can stick with the team all year even when Gallardo comes off the DL.

Round 27
We finally filled our catcher slot with Carlos Ruiz. Our plan was to take either him or Chris Snyder (monster spring) in the last round. Given that there was no one compelling on the board this late we grabbed Ruiz one round earlier than expected.

Round 28
Is this draft over yet? We decided to take a shot on Chris Denorfia. There wasn’t much to this pick – we’ll likely drop him as soon as we spot someone in free agency that can help us.

Here is the final product (HR-SB projections):

C: Carlos Ruiz (15-5)
1B: Travis Hafner (35-0)
2B: B.J. Upton (30-30)
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff (25-0)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (25-40)
CI: Mark Teahen (15-10)
MI: Robinson Cano (20-0)
OF: Magglio Ordonez (25-0)
OF: Nick Swisher (35-0)
OF: Willy Taveras (0-35)
OF: Lastings Milledge (20-15)
OF: Jack Cust (35-0)
Util: Jim Thome (35-0)
Util: Ryan Theriot (0-25)
BN: Evan Longoria
BN: Chris Denorfia

P: Chris Young
P: Yovani Gallardo
P: Randy Johnson
P: Edinson Volquez
P: Randy Wolf
P: Greg Maddux
P: Jose Valverde
P: Huston Street
P: George Sherrill
BN: Manny Parra
BN: Mark Prior
BN: Ervin Santana

Based on our projections we will end up with roughly 315 HRs and 160 SBs. Those totals should put us in the top 4 teams in those categories. We will closely monitor the team as the season moves along and will keep you updated on any transactions. The full results of the draft can be found here.

Do you think we can contend?

Going Once, Going Twice…

Sold! Prince Fielder for $45. That was how the draft started on Friday night. This is an 8 team NL only, H2H points league hosted on CBS. The auction style draft presents numerous challenge and opportunities for the astute fantasy owner to capitalize on (and the unprepared fantasy owner to fail).

We have a $330 salary cap and one keeper heading into each season. An owner can only keep a player for one year which means it is more important to have someone that can help you right now rather than 3 years down the road. Heading into the season I kept Jake Peavy at $33. At only 10% of my budget Peavy is a steal. I was able to acquire Peavy at a discount in last year’s draft because of his down year in 2006. Peavy was my #2 ranked starter behind Carpenter and I was thrilled to get him at such a price (I was willing to go up to $41 for him). I am fully expecting Peavy to put up numbers similar to last year’s line. Another 19 win season might be asking too much, but as long as he keeps his K rate up and wins at least 15 I’ll be happy.

My strategy heading into the draft was to spend roughly $215 on hitting and $115 on pitching. This was merely a guideline. The reason for the slightly higher pitching allocation (most owners stick to a 25% - 30% pitching budget) is that this league setup favors top starters. A pitcher, on a good week, can carry you to a victory. With Peavy already locked up at $33 I had roughly $80 more to spend. I was hoping to grab another top tier starter, two closers, and round out the rest of my staff with high upside, high k rate pitchers who play on teams with good offenses.

On the hitting side I generally eschew the big time bats that go for penthouse prices. I’d prefer to spread out my budget on quite a few $20-$35 hitters rather than break the bank for the Prince Fielder’s of the world. Also, I focus on power over speed. The home run is king, especially in points leagues. A couple of homers from one of your outfielders will more than compensate for their 0-3 days with 2 strikeouts (a negative category in this league).

This actually brings up a good strategy point – know your league rules and how they actually apply to the ultimate scoring product. This league penalizes a player 1 point for every strikeout. Most of the other owners in this league completely misinterpret the effect of this rule and end up avoiding/undervaluing some very valuable hitters. For instance, I was able to snag Adam Dunn last year for $21 while players like Garret Atkins, who finished with only 20 more fantasy points than Dunn, went for $40+. The key is to assess a players overall value relative to the scoring system. Dunn struck out 165 times last year. However, he hit 40 HRs (HRs are king) and walked 101 times. I’ll gladly take the bad (KOs) with the good (massive power and discipline).

Now onto the draft. It didn’t take long for me to dive in. When Carlos Beltran’s price stalled in the mid thirties I had to chime in with a bid. It held up and I grabbed my first player for $36. Beltran was one of my hitting anchors last year when I paid $44 for him. Although he wasn’t specifically on my radar this year I was glad to get him at what I deemed a fair price.

My next grab was Rickie Weeks for $18. This league places a premium on quality infielders, especially those up the middle. If you wait too long to grab them then you can wind up in a bidding war for a Freddy Sanchez type and end up spending $20 on a slap-hitter with no power or speed. Weeks has the potential for a 20-20 season and I’m happy to let him achieve that on my squad. I’d rather have Weeks at $18 then Uggla at $25.

The next name I grabbed was Matt Capps for $6. Last year numerous closers went for double digit prices so I felt that Capps for $6 was a steal. As the draft went on it became clear that all of the owners were gun shy with their closer bids and many of the better closers (Valverde, F. Cordero) eventually went for less than Capps. With that said, Capps is coming off of a nice season and I expect more of the same in 2008.

My next two picks were Miguel Tejada for $28 and Mark Teixeira for $41. Tejada provides me with some pop up the middle. The big three shortstops all went for prices north of $50. I am not comfortable spending top dollar for hitters, especially those that aren’t huge power sources. Tejeada has the chance of having the most HRs amongst NL shortstops and I got him for less than half the price of Jose Reyes ($58). Teixeira is a nice bet to approach 40 HRs with healthy Run and RBI totals. It is a contract year for him and he is auditioning himself for the Mets and Yankees to get into a real life bidding war for his services.

Another big bat comes my way next in the form of Carlos Lee ($39). Lee is a power hitter in a good lineup and should produce a season statistically similar to his 2007. At this point I have two OF’s and a 1B that will each hit around 35 HRs and two MI’s that will each hit around 20 HRs each. That is a nice core to build around.

I have yet to secure my #2 SP at this point and that is because the going rate for pitchers was a little steep. Santana went for $56 which isn’t out of line for this league. However, Webb ($50), Zambrano ($40), Haren ($32) and Maine ($30) all seem like poor bets to earn those prices. Having Peavy at $33 is a real advantage.

My number 2 SP slot is finally filled when I draft Gallardo for $20. I already indicated in my War Room draft re-cap that I feel Yovani is in for a monster season so I will not repeat myself.

Next I grabbed Kouzmanoff for $13. His park limits his power output but over the last few months of 2007 he really put things together. Those 11 post-break HRs are a sign of a big power spike for 2008.

Almost 30 players were called out and sold before I grabbed my next two bats back to back. Jorge Cantu for $4 is a good gamble. Earlier in the day I saw on Rotoworld that the Marlins waived Castillo, clearing the way for Cantu to open the season as the everyday 3B. Here’s hoping that his big spring carries over into the regular season. Hermida at $10 is highway robbery. You’ll notice a theme between this roster and the one I drafted in my War Room league. There are 11 overlapping players, and Hermida is one of them.

My next few picks were low cost, high upside plays: McClouth for $2, Kerry Wood for $1 (my second closer) and Milledge for $4. Both of these OFs will be reserves for me. I was hoping for a potential 20-20 season for Lastings this year but it seems as if Manny Acta is not a friend of the stolen base.

My 3 SP ended up being Randy Wolf. I called out his name for a $1 and you could here a pin drop. I guess all of the injuries have turned people off. However, he generally has a healthy K rate and now he pitches in an extremely favorable park. I like this gamble.

Here is how my final roster came together:

C: Chris Snyder ($3)
1B: Mark Teixeira ($41)
2B: Rickie Weeks ($18)
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff ($13)
SS: Miguel Tejada ($28)
CI: Adrian Gonzalez ($26)
MI: Tad Iguchi ($5)
OF: Carlos Beltran ($36)
OF: Carlos Lee ($39)
OF: Jeremy Hermida ($10)
OF: Pat Burrell ($14)
BN: Lastings Milledge ($4)
BN: Nate McClouth ($2)
BN: Chase Headley ($1)
BN: Jorge Cantu ($4)
BN: Scott Hairston (Supplemental)
BN: Nomar Garciaparra (Supplemental)
BN: Jeff Baker (Supplemental)

SP: Jake Peavy ($33 Keeper)
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($20)
SP: Randy Wolf ($1)
SP: Mark Prior ($1)
SP: Manny Parra ($1)
SP: Johnny Cueto ($2)
SP: Edinson Volquez ($1)
RP: Matt Capps ($6)
RP: Kerry Wood ($1)
BN: Wandy Rodriguez (Supplemental)

Total Hitting Spent: $244 ($29 over my budgeted allowance)
Total Pitching Spent: $66 ($49 under my budgeted allowance)

That’s right – I left $20 on the table. In hindsight I would have liked to have grabbed either Cain or Lincecum with that extra money. Both of those guys went for $15. Aside from that blunder, I also severely underspent on pitching. The reason for this development was that I kept finding bargains on the hitting side. Going into the first few weeks of the season I am in rough shape on the pitching side of the ledger. Gallardo and Prior are hurt and my young trio (Parra, Cueto, and Volquez) are unproven. I need at least one of them to step up and come out of the gate throwing smoke. If my bats can keep me competitive until my arms get healthy then I think I can be a force beginning mid-May.

The complete results of the draft will be posted later on this week after Mike writes his analysis. Feel free to chime in and let me know your thoughts.

Anatamoy of a Draft – War Room, Part II

Here’s a look at the same draft from another perspective…..mine. Based on random order selection, I was given the first overall pick. I tend to favor having the first or last pick in a snake draft. It allows me to avoid guessing what will happen between my picks and just go for what I really want because my next pick is so far away.

Going in, I had some very basic and loose strategies. I typically don’t like to obsess on a particular strategy because you can easily lose sight of putting together the best team by ignoring what’s taken place and adamantly adhering to your pre-draft strategies. You can mock all you want, but you’ll never be able to predict exactly what’s going to happen. If you don’t adjust, you are susceptible to making some mistakes. That being said, I knew that I wanted to load up on closers and, wherever possible, give slightly more value to players with multiple position eligibility. I learned the hard way last year that in a daily transactions league like this, you need at least 3 closers (and that’s probably still on the low side). So there you have it, my 2 basic goals in this draft – closers and position flexibility.

Round 1 – Alex Rodriguez
It’s hard to imagine A-Rod having a better season than last year, but even his down years are worthy of a #1 overall pick. While some might disagree, I think last year was the perfect storm (in a good way) for him. The potential opt-out fueled his entire season. It was a win-win situation for him regardless of how well he performed. Have a down year & you still have the remainder of the richest contract in baseball history. Have a tremendous year & negotiate a new, record setting deal. That, combined with his ridiculously hot start, made for a dream season. Another quick start will be key to putting up monster numbers again. At least he won’t have to deal with fickle Yankee fans booing him every time he doesn’t go yard. He gets a free pass for at least a month.

Rounds 2 & 3 – Jake Peavy & Carl Crawford
The draft pretty much went as expected for the remainder of the first 2 rounds. The only mild surprises could be Pujols going #6 overall (which is pretty early given the concern about his elbow) and Ryan Braun going 12th overall in a non-keeper league.
I had 2 pitchers worthy of being selected with my 2/3 pick – Santana & Peavy. If both were gone, I would have passed on pitching altogether. Santana went 14th overall, so I was holding out hope that people wouldn’t panic on the pitching front and grab Peavy in the next 5 picks. Peavy led the league in ERA (2.54) & strikeouts last year (240). He’s a legitimate triple-crown threat. With him, I am setting a good base for W, K, ERA & WHIP.
I thought I’d be able to get BJ Upton with my 2/3 pick. Guess I wasn’t the only one intrigued by his eligibility at second base. That left me with a choice between Beltran, Crawford & Carlos Lee. I like the idea of getting a top SB guy without sacrificing every other category. I’m going to take a hit in the power department with this pick, but between A-rod’s 15-20 SBs & Crawford’s 50, I don’t have to worry about the category and waste a pick on a “cheap” steals guy who gives you nothing else.

Rounds 4 & 5 – Brian Roberts & Carlos Guillen
Now I definitely don’t have to worry about steals. Roberts is another guy who gives you tremendous help in that category while still being productive in AVG, R & TB. The Orioles lineup scares me, but the prospect of seeing him in a Cubs lineup (which sounds almost like a given, at this point) was too much to pass on. The disparity between 1st & 2nd tier 2nd baseman is pretty vast, and that second tier starts after Cano. In hindsight, I probably could have waited and grabbed Cano with my 6/7 since I already have a nice advantage in steals. I didn’t think he’d last, but he did. While this pick definitely sets me up in steals, I am taking a hit in the power departments. Cano could have provided some help there.
Guillen might have been a slight reach here. Again, I was right at the cusp of falling into the next tier at SS. Reyes, Hanley Ramirez & Rollins are in a tier all their own. After that, you’re looking at Jeter, Tulowitzki, Guillen & Young. Jeter was gone, & because I needed power, it was between Tulowizki & Guillen. The dual position eligibility for Guillen and a potent Detroit lineup gave him an edge. Plus, Tulo might have more of an upside, but there is more risk in assuming his production off of only one full year. Guillen’s .300, 20, 90, 10 is a nice supplement to my lineup so far.

Rounds 6 & 7 – JJ Putz & Francisco Rodriguez
The psychology of a draft – it’s a beautiful thing. I don’t fancy myself as some kind of genius, so I knew that I wasn’t alone in my strategy to load up on closers. 59 picks in and no closers had been taken. My objective here was two-fold – get 2 elite closers and start a run on the position. Believe it or not, it actually worked. 3 of the next 6 picks were closers. Putz & K-Rod top my list of closers. I was happy to get them here knowing that there would be some kind of closer run, whether or not it was started by me, in the 7th & 8th rounds.

Rounds 8 & 9 – Chris Young & Chris Young!!
How often do you get to draft the same name with back-to-back picks? I’ve always been a fan of (the pitcher) Chris Young’s potential since his days in Texas. Combine that with San Diego’s spacious Petco Park and it was a match made in fantasy heaven for me. Our friends at Greener on the Other Side have a nice piece about this being a break out season for him. I won’t repeat the numbers, but a healthy Chris Young can produce at a level worthy being called a top tier pitcher. It’s a big if, but I’m drinking the Kool-Aid and in the 8th/9th round, I’m more than willing to take the risk.
I still need power. Looking at who was still available, I couldn’t pass up on Chris Young (the outfielder) here. His rookie season produced 32 HRs and 27 SBs, but a mind-numbingly low .237 average & only 68 RBIs. It’s hard for me to compute how someone with 32 HRs can only drive in 68 RBIs, but it happened. As his contact rate increases in his second full year, he should produce similar power #s and a slightly better average. I’m sacrificing AVG quite a bit here, but I really was targeting HRs. And, to repeat an already recurring theme, I do not have to even consider SBs any more.

Rounds 10 & 11 – James Loney & Felix Hernandez
The only position I did not have anyone yet was 1B. I really wanted Swisher here because of his dual position eligibility, but he was taken right before I was up. Loney was next up on my list of first basemen. Once a regular in L.A., he put up a line of .331, 15, 67, and a 919 OPS. He’s produced at every level along his trip to the majors (although his mysterious lack of HRs in Triple-A last year are a bit concerning), so expecting him to improve on last year’s fine numbers aren’t much of a reach.
I’m pretty much in best player available mode from here on out. And there, staring me right in the face, was King Felix. With 2+ years of MLB experience underneath him, the 21 year old is facing a season where his production must finally catch up to the hype. The Wins, Ks and ERA will be there, but the WHIP could be a problem. It would be more of a problem if I took him earlier than the 11th round though. Hernandez and his potential here were just too much to pass up.

Rounds 12 & 13 Javier Vazquez & Manny Corpas
Vazquez quietly put together one of the best seasons of his career last year, leading his team in Wins & Ks. I don’t expect much more than what he did in 2007, but in this spot, I’ll gladly take his 2007 numbers.
Closers, closers, closers. Corpas was the best closer available at this point. The job is his and he’s done it before. A lot of my closer decisions are based on job security, past performance & injury history. The position is so fickle that it doesn’t take much to cause a team to switch closers midway through the season. Typically, I prefer to take closers with less variables than someone with better potential.

Rounds 14 & 15 Howie Kendrick & Johnny Damon
Adding to my stable of young players, I went after Kendrick. He’s not going to help where I need it the most in HRs & RBIs, but his production this late in the draft was hard to pass up. With the exception of Chris Young (the outfielder), I have players who should give me a clear edge in average every week. This pick definitely adds to it.
I wouldn’t call this much of a strategy, but I came into the draft wanting to make sure that I had all of the infield positions filled with at least 1 player by the 10th round. I felt that there were plenty of mid-tier outfielders that would be available late and the disparity between the top and the bottom of this tier isn’t as noticeable as it is for all of the other positions. I stuck to that, but now I had to start filling my outfield slots. Damon’s past performance and the fact that he is in one of the league’s best lineups probably skew his value a bit the wrong way. The fact is, he’s been a pretty monumental failure since arriving in New York. Surprisingly, he’s been able to fly under the radar. I don’t think playing time will be an issue, so it’s safe to say that he will score close to 100 runs. Looking back, Josh Hamilton would have been the better pick for me here given my needs for a power hitting outfielder.

Rounds 16 & 17 – Kosuke Fukudome & Raul Ibanez
Filling my outfield need was a priority with these 2 picks. At the time of the draft, Fukudome looked like he had the 2nd spot in a nice Cubs lineup locked up. However, since then it has been revealed that he will bat fifth to break up the righties in the lineup. While his overall production might have been better in the 2 spot, this could turn out to be a blessing for me since I need RBIs. Plus, he’s got a pretty sweet name.
Ibanez quietly & consistently produces seasons that hover around 285, 20, 85. That’s exactly what I needed at this point in the draft.

Rounds 18 & 19 – Edwin Encarnacion & Phil Hughes
Any owner of Encarnacion the past 2 years can tell you how frustrating of a player he is to own. His streakiness combined with management’s apparent lack of patience with him makes it hard to tolerate him being on your roster. But, it’s also hard to ignore his production after being recalled from the minors in the middle of last year. He put up a line of .309, 10, 40 after the lesson. I’m hoping the new regime in Cincinnati shows a bit more patience and he provides me some much needed power numbers.
Having watched pretty much all of Phil Hughes’ major league starts last year, it was clear that he was not the same pitcher after he came back from his hamstring & ankle injury. The arm strength and control were just not there. Still, opponents hit just .232 against him. He came on strong toward the end of last year as he got closer to full strength and even pitched well in a relief role in the playoffs. Completely healthy this year, Hughes will make big steps toward becoming the future ace that the franchise is banking on.

Rounds 20 & 21 – Stephen Drew & Kevin Gregg
What good is position flexibility if you don’t have any other alternatives at the position? I drafted Guillen as a SS & 1B, but without a quality SS behind him, I would be eliminating the possibility of using him at first. Drew’s terrible 2007 average of .238 is a huge turnoff, but his potential combined with his strong post-season showing made him worthy of a pick here. I would have preferred Yuniel Escobar, but he was taken a few picks earlier.
Back to closers. I was deciding between Kerry Wood & Kevin Gregg here. As mentioned earlier, I prefer closers with few variables. Gregg is productive and isn’t facing any job security issues. The biggest question is whether he’ll be dealt to a contender later in the year. I’ll take the trade risk and ride him for 4 months over Wood getting injured yet again. Plus, as I was making this pick, the Duke/Belmot game was in the final seconds & admittedly, it was hard for me to concentrate. I couldn’t get Wood’s injury history out of my head as Duke held on to win.

Rounds 22 & 23 – Ubaldo Jimenez & Hiroki Kuroda
Two potential picks here…..sort of. Kuroda projects to be a middle of the rotation starter in L.A. His groundball tendencies fit well with Dodger Stadium, & I’m a big believer in established Japanese pitchers coming here and performing over their true potential because they are unknown. The league eventually catches up, but I’m expecting some early success.

Rounds 24 & 25 – Jon Lester & Andre Ethier
Lester provides potential to give me some cheap wins. He isn’t as highly regarded as some of the other young arms in the AL East, but the fact is, he is on a winning team that will score a lot of runs behind him.
Ethier’s biggest problems is a crowded Dodger outfield. Couple that with Joe Torre’s love of veteran players (Juan Pierre) and he is forced to take a backseat to Matt Kemp to start. I’m hoping that the Dodgers either trade Pierre or that his lack of production outshines his contract and Ethier gets a chance to play.

Rounds 26, 27 & 28 – Ty Wigginton, Bengie Molina & Aaron Cook

After all is said and done, I will be running the following team out there:

1B – Loney
2B – Roberts
3B – Alex Rodriguez
SS – Carlos Guillen
CI – Edwin Encarnacion
MI – Howie Kendrick
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Chris Young
RF – Fukudome
OF – Damon
OF – Ibanez
UT – Stephen Drew/Wigginton/Ethier

SP – Peavy
SP – Chris Yong
SP – Felix Hernandez
SP – Javier Vazquez
SP – Phil Hughes
RP – Putz
RP – Felix Rodriguez
RP – Manny Corpas
2 Pitching Spots – Kevin Gregg, Kuroda, Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jon Lester

Overall, while I’m lacking a bit in HRs, most of my offensive players are not one dimensional and should provide me with a balanced attack. I really like how my pitching staff came together. I have nice flexibility with 4 closers and a lot of strike out potential. Let me know how you think I did. Complete draft results can be found in the following post.

Anatamoy of a Draft – War Room, Part I

Thursday March 20th was the annual War Room draft. This is a 10 team 7x7 H2H league held on Yahoo! with the following categories: (R, HR, RBI, SB, TB, AVG., OPS – W, L, K, SV, TBA, ERA, WHIP). Some other things to consider in this league are roster size/composition (28 spots, a DL spot, and specific OF spots), lineup change frequency (daily) and competition (above average to astute).

Heading into the draft I knew I had the 3rd pick overall. That knowledge didn’t really affect my strategy at all, but it is not an ideal place to be this year. In this league (and most others) A-Rod is the clear-cut top choice. After that any of seven players can go next. In that type of scenario I’d rather have a later pick, such as the 8th slot. But in the end it doesn’t matter – one should be able to construct a winning team regardless of draft position, especially in a 10 team league.

Rounds 1 and 2
With the 3rd overall pick I chose David Wright. I actually have him ranked #2 behind A-Rod so I was pleased that he fell to me. Wright provides me elite production across all 7 hitting categories. He also is an elite 3B, which is important because the position, although top-heavy, is not deep. Here is how the first 20 picks played out:

1) Team 1: Alex Rodriguez
2) Team 2: Hanley Ramirez
3) Chris' Team: David Wright
4) Team 4: Jose Reyes
5) Team 5: Jimmy Rollins
6) Team 6: Albert Pujols
7) Team 7: Matt Holliday
8) Team 8: Chase Utley
9) Team 9: Miguel Cabrera
10) Team 10: Alfonso Soriano
11) Team 10: Grady Sizemore
12) Team 9: Ryan Braun
13) Team 8: Ryan Howard
14) Team 7: Johan Santana
15) Team 6: Prince Fielder
16) Team 5: David Ortiz
17) Team 4: Vladimir Guerrero
18) Chris' Team: B.J. Upton
19) Team 2: Brandon Phillips
20) Team 1: Jake Peavy

I think that the first questionable pick is Pujols at #6 overall. His lingering injuries might limit his upside this season. The Cardinals also might opt to shut him down after the All-Star Break if they are clearly out of contention which would prohibit Pujols from providing anything close to first round value. Holliday, Utely and Cabrera are all great values at 7, 8 and 9. I personally have them ranked 4, 5 and 6.
David Ortiz at #16 is a tremendous value. With 1B eligibility he should provide top 10 value. There was absolutely no chance that he would get past me at #18, and Bones War knew it. My pick of B.J. Upton has to do with his ability to help me across all hitting categories and also because of his positional eligibility (2B and CF). Peavy at #20 is a great value as well. He could arguably finish as the #1 pitcher and should have probably went off the board about 5 picks earlier.

Rounds 3 and 4
I am still going best available player in these rounds. I have a list of my top 28 players and I work off of those rankings until they are cleared. Carlos Lee is a big stick and he plays the weakest OF position for fantasy purposes this year (LF). If Peavy was available I would have taken him but I was please to continue my strategy of grabbing the best available players regardless of position.

In round 4 I was able to grab Nick Markakis whom I expect to give me 30/20 line this year. With a 7x7 league it is important to grab as many stat fillers as possible. Through 4 rounds I have 4 players that will provide me with production in all 7 hitting categories.

21) Team 1: Carl Crawford
22) Team 2: Carlos Beltran
23) Chris' Team: Carlos Lee
24) Team 4: Magglio Ordonez
25) Team 5: Curtis Granderson
26) Team 6: Ichiro Suzuki
27) Team 7: Carlos Pena
28) Team 8: Brandon Webb
29) Team 9: Alex Rios
30) Team 10: Lance Berkman
31) Team 10: C.C. Sabathia
32) Team 9: Chone Figgins
33) Team 8 Victor Martinez
34) Team 7: Derek Jeter
35) Team 6: Mark Teixeira
36) Team 5: Aramis Ramirez
37) Team 4: Bobby Abreu
38) Chris' Team: Nick Markakis
39) Team 2: Derrek Lee
40) Team 1: Brian Roberts

Carlos Pena at #27 could either be proper value or a complete waste of a pick. He usually lasts another 30 picks so I think it was quite a reach to grab him in round 3. All the other picks seem fine, although I wouldn’t touch Ichiro or Granderson in round 3 in this league either.

Round 5
Corey Hart – Its 43 picks into the draft yet I was still able to pull someone off of my top 28 list. Hart is another 7 category filler and he also has CF eligibility. I actually had Adam Dunn rated one spot higher on my board but Hart’s CF eligibility was too good to pass up at that spot.

Round 6
Dunn did not make his way back to me – he went 2 picks before me. At this point my Top 28 list is now completely exhausted. Looking at my roster I have five 7 category studs at 2B, 3B, LF, CF and RF. My draft sheet says that my 2nd tier of 1B is running out so I grab Adrian Gonzalez. I know that Petco zaps some of his power but he still went 30-100 last year and I expect the same this year.

Round 7
I finally take my first pitcher – John Smoltz. I actually have him as my sixth most valuable SP. I was hoping that Cole Hamels would fall to me here but he was grabbed right after I took Gonzalez. Smoltz should provide me with double-digit wins and a healthy K rate and I am happy with him as my staff ace.

In this league the daily transactions allow an owner to stream pitchers – which is extremely effective in this format. With this knowledge my plan was to wait until at least the 7th round before grabbing a pitcher (unless Peavy fell to me in the 3rd). Also, I know that my SP rankings are much different than those of the other owners in this league. That gives me the ability to focus more on hitting and RPs early while still giving me the opportunity to grab pitchers in my top 25 in the middle rounds.

Round 8
Rafael Furcal – This is a slight reach but SS is very weak this year after the big 3 are off the board. I wanted to avoid missing out on the Tier 2 SS so I grabbed Furcal. He is off to a nice Spring and I expect him to reach the 35 SB plateau this year, provided he avoids the DL.

Round 9
Mariano Rivera – I finally take a closer. My plan was to wait for the Tier 1 closers to leave the board before I took one. Rivera was the 7th closer taken. In this league I generally carry 3-5 closers. This allows me to win the Save category in most weeks and it doesn’t prevent me from competing in the Wins and Ks categories either because of the daily lineup changes. I can keep up to five closers active (3 RP slots and 2 P slots) while sliding my starters in and out of the lineup (5 active SP slots) depending on when they pitch.

Round 10
Francisco Liriano – This was my first “reach” pick of the draft. There were six pitchers still on the board that I ranked higher than Liriano but I thought that at least 2 of them would still be on the board in the next few rounds (and luckily they were). This is a pure speculative pick. Regardless of how his ratios end up he should provide me with a high K rate. As you can tell, that is the one pitching attribute that I value the most as it is the best predictor of success.

Round 11
Yovani Gallardo – It may be aggressive, but I have Yovani as my 10th ranked SP in 2008. I am not worried about his knee and I am not a believer in the “sophomore slump” theory. Last year Gallardo was dominant, striking out 101 in 110.1 innings. I expect that healthy K rate to continue. Also, the Brewers are much better defensively this year with Cameron in CF and Braun no longer butchering the hot corner. Those two moves alone should directly help the Milwaukee pitchers keep their ERA’s down and their win totals up.

Round 12
Rickie Weeks – This pick was all about position scarcity. We start a 2B, SS and MI in this league and I didn’t want to reach into the Tier 3 SS to fill this position. Luckily there were still a few Tier 2 second basemen still on board and I found one that should provide me with a healthy dose of power and speed (15-25 as a baseline projection).

Round 13
Matt Capps – Time to grab my second closer. I do not factor the strength of a team when I create my closer rankings. The idea of a closer having more save opportunities if his team has a higher win total is simply incorrect. That knowledge alone draws me to take closers with good skills (read high k rate, low walk rate) versus closers with bad skills who play on good teams (Todd Jones anyone?). Capps fits the bill nicely (I could have easily gone with Soria as well here).

Round 14
Here is the second SP that I figured would still be on the board well after I took Liriano in round 10. The low win total scares people off and the presence of the sexy Tim Lincecum make people forget how good (and unlucky) Cain was last year. He had a solid 7.34 K/9 rate and component ERA of 3.26. I gladly add him as my #4 SP in any league.

Round 15
Closer #3, Brad Lidge. His K/9 rate last year was a healthy 11.82. His new ballpark probably won’t help keep his HR numbers low but I could have done worse for my third closer.

Round 16
Conor Jackson. It was time to fill in my CI slot and Jackson was a hitter that I was targeting heading into the draft. The threat of Tony Clark stealing playing time is no longer present. Jackson also seemingly has the 3rd spot in the batting order locked up to himself. I can see Jackson approaching 20 HRs this year. But if he struggles I would not hesitate to bench/drop him and move in another direction.

Round 17
Ted Lilly becomes the 5th SP that I have taken in the draft. He is my 24th ranked SP which means that we are 163 picks into the draft and I am still able to grab a top 25 pitcher. This confirms that I had a correct strategy heading into this draft: wait on SP as there will be plenty high-quality starters available in the middle rounds. Lilly had a K/9 rate last year of 7.57 and a component ERA of 3.16.

Round 18
Jeremy Hermida. Everyone’s favorite sleeper heading into the 2006 draft is finally being drafted at a reasonable price. I do not think that the speed potential is still there, but his second half batting average of .340 and OPS of .956 suggest that he might be putting it all together.

Round 19
Michael Bourn – This was purely a speed pick (stolen bases and runs). He is set to hit at the top of the Houston lineup. He had a 94.7% stolen base success rate last year in limited ABs.

Round 20
Kevin Kouzmanoff. It was a tale of two seasons for Kouz last year as he struggled mightily before the break but then went on a tear after the break. He hit .317 and bashed 11 HRs after the break.

Rounds 21 & 22
Kerry Wood and C.J. Wilson – both of these guys are supposed to close for their respective clubs. If it looks like either one or both of them will not be closing then I will release them. If they do close then they provide me with a massive edge in Saves on a weekly basis (I have 5 closers on my roster at this point).

Rounds 23 – 25
Manny Parra, Mark Prior and Edinson Volquez – Parra and Volquez are two young pitchers with great K rates. They also have a good chance to be in the rotation at the start of the season. At this point in the draft I am looking for high upside plays and these two fit the bill perfectly.

Mark Prior is also an interesting gamble at this point. No one questions his skills – health has always been the issue. He will start the season on the DL which will allow me to free up a roster spot. That is one strategy that I employ in leagues that allow a DL spot. It is practically incorrect to not draft a player who will be on the DL to start the season in these types of leagues. When Prior returns in mid-May I will simply drop my most undesirable pitcher. If Prior can stay healthy, that new park should do wonders for his peripherals.

Round 26
Going back to the well once again I grab Austin Kearns. He has been a staple (disappointment?) on many of my squads over the years. However, his power potential this late in the draft needed to be snatched up. If he starts out slow or loses the job then I will cut and run.

Round 27
This was a pick I didn’t want to make but was absolutely necessary. Brandon Lyon was still on the board. A closer should not be available this late in the draft. This makes 6 closers on my squad which is at least 1 too many. I will simply attempt to deal Lyon (either by himself or in a package) to try and upgrade elsewhere, ideally on offense. My target team will be the one that grabbed Tony Pena in round 22.

Round 28
My strategy going into the draft was to take my catcher in the last round. In a 10 team, 1 catcher league this strategy is quite effective. This year I am willing to speculate on Carlos Ruiz, Chris Snyder and Mike Napoli. In my two drafts this year I have been able to grab Ruiz in the last round. If he produces then I’m happy. If not I will drop him for either Snyder or Napoli (both undrafted as expected). I used this strategy in 2004 and grabbed Victor Martinez in the last round of all of my drafts. I am not expect that magnitude of success but I’m sure I can get top 10 catcher value while still waiting until the endgame to grab my starter.

Concluding Thoughts
So here is my final squad:

C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: B.J. Upton
3B: David Wright
SS: Rafael Furcal
CI: Conor Jackson
MI: Rickie Weeks
LF: Carlos Lee
CF: Corey Hart
RF: Nick Markakis
OF: Jeremy Hermida
OF: Michael Bourn
Util: Kevin Kouzmanoff
BN: Austin Kearns

SP: John Smoltz
SP: Francisco Liriano
SP: Yovani Gallardo
SP: Matt Cain
SP: Ted Lilly
RP: Mariano Rivera
RP: Matt Capps
RP: Brad Lidge
P: Kerry Wood
P: C.J. Wilson
BN: Brandon Lyon
BN: Manny Parra
BN: Mark Prior
BN: Edinson Volquez

I should be fine with speed. My strategy for tackling speed in this format is to walk away with at least 100 projected SBs and to have them spread out as much as possible. My first 5 picks should provide me with roughly 45 SBs while the likes of Weeks, Furcal and Bourn should bring that total past 110. My power is solid but unspectacular. I have quite a few 30 HR guys (or potential 30 HR guys). OPS might be a slight problem but that was not a category that I focused on pre-draft.

On the pitching side I feel like I should dominate K, SV, ERA and WHIP. That alone should give me an edge on a weekly basis (4 out of 7 categories). All in all I am please with how this draft unfolded. Let me know your thoughts.