Making the Grade - NL

As mentioned in an earlier post, I will periodically review the GPA leaders in each league throughout the season. Today we will take a look at the NL leaders through yesterday’s games.

As a reference point, here are last year’s leaders in the category (statistics can be found at The Hardball Times:

National League 2007
Chipper Jones .346
Albert Pujols .342
Miguel Cabrera .331
David Wright .331
Prince Fielder .329
Hanley Ramirez .324
Chase Utley .317
Ryan Howard .313
Adrian Gonzalez .306
Dmitri Young .305

The only surprise on the above list is Dmitri Young, but he did have a very productive season last year. This year’s leaders through April 14th are listed below, along with their 2007 and 2006 GPAs.

National League 2008 2007 2006
Albert Pujols .427 .342 .365
Pat Burrell .405 .296 .293
Hanley Ramirez .387 .324 .294
Rafael Furcal .372 .243 .284
Nate McLouth .364 .275 .225
Lance Berkman .354 .301 .344
Justin Upton .354 .208 N/A
James Loney .349 .312 .301
Chipper Jones .346 .346 .336
Derrek Lee .346 .299 .277

The names that appear on both the 2008 and 2007 lists (Pujols, Ramirez, Chipper) will likely remain there all season.

Pat Burrell is off to a tremendous start. If you buy into the contract year theory then this spike in production doesn’t surprise you. Pat’s bat will likely slow down as the season progresses but I wouldn’t be surprised if his GPA finishes the year north of .300.

James Loney has provided quality production in his first few seasons. If he can maintain his current production level (unlikely) he’ll move into the discussion of 2nd tier mixed-league first basemen next year.

Derrek Lee should regress to a .290-.300 range GPA. His 2006 GPA is low because of injury. Furcal had an off year in 2007, but he is certainly more of a .285 player as opposed to his current level of .372.

These next two players have been hot names to start the year. Justin Upton already has 5 HRs and hits in the heart of a young, productive lineup. Most owners felt that Upton would have an OK year, with his eventual breakout scheduled for 2010. His fast start is making many people second guess their initial projections. I fully expect his power to slow down, his legs to speed up, and his GPA to end up in the .290 range. Upton will be an interesting case to follow as his sample size of ABs increases.

Now everybody’s favorite OF sleeper, Nate McLouth, has made his owners smile thus far, as he’s hit safely in all 13 games this year. He is finally getting regular ABs and it will be fun to watch how he holds up over six months of full time work. With that said, McLouth’s current hit streak is likely to end soon and pitchers will start to figure him out. He does, however, possess a good eye at the plate and he takes a lot of pitches. This will help him get on base at a good clip and in turn keep his GPA up.

Again, this sample size is almost useless. But now we have a base for which to work off of as the season moves along.

Making the Grade - AL

Throughout the season I will take a look at the GPA leaders in each league. For the uninitiated, GPA stands for Gross Production Average, a measure of a player’s OBP and SLG% that is more useful than the standard OPS calculation. It is more useful primarily for two reasons: it gives more weight to OBP and it is shown on a scale comparable to batting average. The formula for GPA is simple:

Gross Production Average (GPA) = ((OBP*1.8) + SLG) / 4

For more on the subject you should check out this link, where GPA creator Aaron Gleeman provides his explanation for its origination.

As a reference point, here are last year’s leaders in the category (statistics can be found at The Hardball Times:

American League 2007
Alex Rodriguez .355
Magglio Ordonez .351
Carlos Pena .348
David Ortiz .342
Jorge Posada .331
Vladimir Guerrero .325
Jack Cust .319
Jim Thome .316
B.J. Upton .307
Curtis Granderson .306

Those names should look familiar, as they all had excellent seasons. Let’s take a look at this year’s top ten through the first two weeks of the season. To provide more flavor I have also listed each player’s GPA from the previous two seasons.

American League 2008 2007 2006
Raul Ibanez .394 .289 .302
A.J. Pierzynski .375 .233 .254
Carlos Guillen .362 .292 .318
Chone Figgins .355 .291 .254
Luke Scott .354 .284 .347
Casey Kotchman .348 .290 .159
Joe Crede .343 .190 .267
Nick Markakis .339 .287 .275
Ryan Garko .339 .288 .284
Carlos Pena .330 .348 .258

The only name that appears on both the 2007 and 2008 lists is Carlos Pena. He is showing in the early stages of the season that his power output last year was not a fluke. It will be interesting to track his progress as the season moves along to see if he can remain in the top ten.

Players such as Ibanez, Guillen, Markakis and Garko are off to great starts but their GPA’s will likely regress to their respective career norms over the next few months. Luke Scott is an interesting case, as this is the first year where he is getting a full slate of plate appearances. If he can maintain a .300+ GPA he will end up being one of the best end game OF picks of the year.

Joe Crede’s hot start has kept Josh Fields in the minors so far, but I don’t expect that to last all season. Even in Crede’s big counting stat year (2006 when he went 30-94) he still only had a .267 GPA. He slugged .506 that year but he had a paltry .326 OBP. Unless he can keep up his rate of one grand slam per week, he won’t be on this list for long.

Pierzynski has shown no history of being able to sustain top level production and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t even sniff this list next time out. Figgins is another interesting case. He gets on base at a good clip but he has no power. My guess is that he finishes the year in the neighborhood of a .280 GPA. That would place him in the OK range.

I’ll go through the NL leaders next time.