Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Transient Power Revisited

Back in April we took a look at a few players who had inordinately high HR/F ratios. We stated that the power surge for each of these bats was going to slow down over the next month. Let's take a look to see how they have fared since April 25th.

Hanley Ramirez: HR/F ratio dropped by 14.0%. Has hit only 2 HRs in past 32 games (compared to 7 in his first 23 games).

Casey Kotchman: HR/F ratio dropped by 15.8%. Has not gone yard since (stuck at 6 HRs)

Josh Willingham: Injured. He only played two games since our post.

Gary Matthews, Jr: HR/F ratio dropped by 9.3%. He has hit only 2 HRs in his past 30+ games.

Yunel Escobar: HR/F ratio dropped by 5.6%. Same as Matthews; 2 HRs in his past 30+ games.

The top 50 players in HR/F at this point look largely legit. Guys like Jack Cust, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, etc. can and will all sustain a high HR/F rate. There are still a few though that I think will see a slow down in power. Here are four guys in the top 50 that I think are due for a regression.

Ryan Ludwick: He is sporting a 25.1% HR/F rate to go along with his 13 HRs on the year. He has done this before: In 48 PA back in 2005 Ludwick had a 25.6% HR/F rate. That is too small of a sample size from which to draw a conclusion. In 339 PA last year he had only a 13.7% HR/F rate. He will likely end up on the south side of a 20.0% HR/F rate and will probably hit 12 or less HRs from here on out. His name doesn't carry a lot of weight so I don't really see him as a sell high. You might just have to ride him out.

Adrian Gonzalez: A-Gonz has been one of the most under appreciated studs this season. He has 17 HRs and 54 RBIs through 59 games. His HR/F rate stands at 23.3% and his previous season high is 16.9%. This could be the breakout year for A-Gonz so I'm not expecting a huge power drop-off. He is, however, not likely to hit HRs at a higher clip than his current pace. Analysis: Enjoy the top 25 production from this player drafted barely inside the top 100 picks.

Aaron Rowand: It may seem like I dislike Rowand a lot. I'll leave that where it is.
He is currently sporting a 20.1% HR/F rate and has 8 HRs on year. His previous high came all the back in 2004 when he had a 15.0% HR/F rate. I would not expect Rowand to hit more than 7 or 8 more dingers on the year.

Ryan Church: Sure, pick on the concussed guy. Yeah, it's easy to do but in this case it is justified. He did go yard in his first game back but I don't see the power lasting. He has a 23.8% HR/F rate. His previous high was 18.0% in 2006. He has 10 HRs on the year right now. He'll probably finish with 20-23 HRs. Not bad production, but if there is an overzealous Met fan in your league I'd see if there is a fit.

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