Can't Predict Wins

Most fantasy owners know by now that you should not chase wins on draft day. Despite this common knowledge, every league has owners who will take a Chien-Ming Wang four rounds too early.

Just in case you are one of those people, take a look at the list below. On it you'll find the top 12 leaders in Wins for 2007. Next to their names you'll see their 2007 Win total, 2008 Wins to date, and their 2008 ratio of Wins to Game Starts.

1) Josh Beckett: 20 Wins ('07), 6 Wins ('08), 55%
2) Fausto Carmona: 19 Wins ('07), 4 Wins ('08), 40%
3) C.C. Sabathia: 19 Wins ('07), 3 Wins ('08), 23%
4) John Lackey: 19 Wins ('07), 2 Wins ('08), 40%
5) Chien-Ming Wang: 19 Wins ('07), 6 Wins ('08), 46%
6) Jacke Peavy: 19 Wins ('07), 4 Wins ('08), 44%
7) Justin Verlander: 18 Wins ('07), 2 Wins ('08), 15%
8) Kelvim Escobar: 18 Wins ('07), Injured in 2008
9) Brandon Webb: 18 Wins ('07), 11 Wins ('08), 85%
10) Carlos Zambrano: 18 Wins ('07), 8 Wins ('08), 57%
11) Tim Wakefield: 17 Wins ('07), 4 Wins ('08), 31%
12) Jeff Francis: 17 Wins ('07), 2 Wins ('08), 15%

A few things should stick out when looking at these numbers. First of all, only two pitchers on the list (Webb and Zambrano) have a good shot at remaining in the top 12 in Wins for 2008. Beckett and Wang have a decent shot at making the list but to do so they'll have to win at least 50% of their remaining starts.

Let's say that those 4 pitchers each finish 2008 with at least 17 Wins and are amongst the MLB leaders. That still is only 33% of last year's top 12.

Our advice: Ignore Wins when evaluating pitchers on draft day. You'll be able to draft much more effectively if you look at statistics such as K/9, DIPs, etc.