Pseudo Sports

Stream Team - Week 11

2008-06-12T06:01:00.000-04:00

Every week we'll take a look at less-heralded starting pitchers that have favorable weekend match-ups.

The spot starters available this weekend for interleague play are a little shaky but let's give it a shot.

Friday, June 13th
Kyle Kendrick: Kendrick is at St. Louis on Friday facing off against the other Kyle. The key to thsi match-up is the absence of Pujols. Kendrick isn't good for much (or anything really) but not having to face Pujols will allow him to potentially sneak in a win here. The ERA and WHIP might be ugly, but if you are hurting in the win column there are worse plays than this one (maybe not - I really hate this pick).

Saturday, June 14th
Wandy Rodgriguez: Home against the Yanks. This is a tough one. Wandy has been briliant in his last two outings (0 ERs), but he will be facing a lot of hot hitters in this match up. Way-Rod is usually magic at home though and I can see a Quality Start from him in this one.

Sunday, June 15th
Dana Eveland: A familiar theme in this space is targeting inept offenses. I've been burned a couple of times this year picking against the Giants but let's try it again anyway. Eveland was a little wild in his last two starts but was still able to pitch himself out of jams. Don't expect him to go much further than 5.0 innings here but a W is certainly attainable.

Last Week's Results: 3-0-0, Season Total: 13-9-2
Darrell Rasner: L, 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Base Runners, 4 Ks (Tough-luck loss but a help in ERA and WHIP)

Cha Seung Baek: ND, 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 BR, 2 Ks (Quality Start was helpful in WHIP)

Phil Dumatrait: W, 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 BR, 3 Ks (Gets the W and helped in WHIP)

Can't Predict Wins

2008-06-10T16:37:00.002-04:00

Most fantasy owners know by now that you should not chase wins on draft day. Despite this common knowledge, every league has owners who will take a Chien-Ming Wang four rounds too early.

Just in case you are one of those people, take a look at the list below. On it you'll find the top 12 leaders in Wins for 2007. Next to their names you'll see their 2007 Win total, 2008 Wins to date, and their 2008 ratio of Wins to Game Starts.

1) Josh Beckett: 20 Wins ('07), 6 Wins ('08), 55%
2) Fausto Carmona: 19 Wins ('07), 4 Wins ('08), 40%
3) C.C. Sabathia: 19 Wins ('07), 3 Wins ('08), 23%
4) John Lackey: 19 Wins ('07), 2 Wins ('08), 40%
5) Chien-Ming Wang: 19 Wins ('07), 6 Wins ('08), 46%
6) Jacke Peavy: 19 Wins ('07), 4 Wins ('08), 44%
7) Justin Verlander: 18 Wins ('07), 2 Wins ('08), 15%
8) Kelvim Escobar: 18 Wins ('07), Injured in 2008
9) Brandon Webb: 18 Wins ('07), 11 Wins ('08), 85%
10) Carlos Zambrano: 18 Wins ('07), 8 Wins ('08), 57%
11) Tim Wakefield: 17 Wins ('07), 4 Wins ('08), 31%
12) Jeff Francis: 17 Wins ('07), 2 Wins ('08), 15%

A few things should stick out when looking at these numbers. First of all, only two pitchers on the list (Webb and Zambrano) have a good shot at remaining in the top 12 in Wins for 2008. Beckett and Wang have a decent shot at making the list but to do so they'll have to win at least 50% of their remaining starts.

Let's say that those 4 pitchers each finish 2008 with at least 17 Wins and are amongst the MLB leaders. That still is only 33% of last year's top 12.

Our advice: Ignore Wins when evaluating pitchers on draft day. You'll be able to draft much more effectively if you look at statistics such as K/9, DIPs, etc.

Stream Team - Week 10

2008-06-05T23:36:00.005-04:00

Every week we'll take a look at less-heralded starting pitchers that have favorable weekend match-ups.

Last week I gave myself an ultimatum: Get back on track such that I'm picking useful spot starters 66% of the time, or else. So far so good. Last week I did just that. Let's see if I can keep rolling along.

Friday, June 6th

Darrell Rasner: Rasner was my lone dud last week. He is still available in over 40% of ten team leagues and that number will likely get smaller after his next start. He is scheduled to face the Royals on Friday. Everyone knows that the Royals have the worst offense in the AL. In fact, their 218 runs scored is good for worst in the entire major leagues. Look for Rasner to rebound from his last outing and get a W.

Saturday, June 7th

Cha Seung Baek: Baek is set to face off against the Mets at home. He has only faced Carlos Delgado (0-2) so this will be a first look for the NY bats. Given the Mets road record (13-17) and the fact that this game takes place in spacious Petco Park, I like Baek to give up no more than three runs here. If the Padres can get on base in front of red-hot A-Gonz then Baek could be in line for a W. Not to mention the fact that O. Perez will be walking the ballpark all night.

Sunday, June 8th

Phil Dumatrait: Let's go with the hot hand here. The D-Back's lineup is pretty good (especially against lefties) but Dumatrait has been solid in his last few outings. His latest was a tough luck loss to Way-Rod and the Astros. Look for Dumatrait to put up a Quality Start in this one.

Last Week's Results: 2-1-0, Season Total: 10-9-2

Todd Wellemeyer: W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Base Runners, 4 Ks

Josh Banks: W, 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 BR, 5 Ks (Got to love the CGSO)

Darrell Rasner: L, 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 BR, 5 Ks (The Ks were nice but this one is a L)

Equivalent Average - Revisited

2008-06-04T21:35:00.020-04:00

About a month ago, we took our first look at Equivalent Average (EqA). As a quick refresher, EqA attempts to measure total offensive output by considering batting and baserunning stats with adjustments for home park, team pitching and league offensive level. It is considered a useful metric because it includes all aspects of offense and it can be used to estimate runs scored, which is a good indicator of overall production for fantasy purposes.

The formula for EqA is calibrated so that it resembles batting average. Raw EqA, calculated first, equals (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). Raw EqA is then adjusted for league difficulty so that the league average for EqA equals .260. For a detailed analysis of EqA and it's usefulness, see Baseball Prospectus' article explaining the calculation here.

When we last checked on May 1st, here were the EqA leaders in each league:

American League
1. Eric Hinske - .339
2. Carlos Quentin - .339
3. Manny Ramirez - .332
4. Carlos Guillen - .330
5. Casey Kotchman - .329
6. Josh Hamilton - .320
7. Adrian Beltre - .317
8. Milton Bradley - .315
9. Hideki Matsui - .314
10. Magglio Ordonez - .314

National League
1. Albert Pujols - .392
2. Chipper Jones - .378
3. Chase Utley - .369
4. Pat Burrell - .366
5. Rafael Furcal - .349
6. Derrek Lee - .347
7. Josh Willingham - .345
8. Connor Jackson - .342
9. Ryan Ludwick - .340
10. Lance Berkman - .339

Coming into today's action, here are the leaders (50 plate appearance minimum):

American League
1. Josh Hamilton - .334
2. Milton Bradley - .334
3. Alexi Casilla - .323
4. Howie Kendrick - .320
5. Carlos Quentin - .319
6. Ramon Vazquez - .317
7. Alex Rodriguez - .314
8. Jack Cust - .314
9. B.J. Upton - .312
10. Hideki Matsui - .310

National League
1. Lance Berkman - .391
2. Albert Pujols - .383
3. Chipper Jones - .382
4. Rafael Furcal - .349
5. Chase Utley - .347
6. Ryan Ludwick - .347
7. Josh Willingham - .344
8. Pat Burrell - .336
9. Nate McLouth - .333
10. Jason Bay - .332

Once again, the numbers in the National League are far and away better than the American League figures. Josh Hamilton's AL leading EqA of .334 would barely crack the top 10 in the NL. Second place holder Alexi Casilla's .323 would be good enough for just 14th overall in the NL. 7 of the top 10 AL players weren't in the top 10 last month. This was expected though, as we saw names last time that just didn't belong. With more plate appearances under their belt, the AL list of leaders is starting to contain the names that we'd expect. Of note among the AL leaders is Alexi Casilla. Casilla is hitting .326 with 2 HRs and 15 RBIs since being recalled in mid-May. Surprisingly, the speedster has only 2 SBs, a number he should imporove on over the remainder of the year. He's certainly someone worth keeping an eye on if he's available in your league - especially if you're looking to bolster SBs and average. Ride him while he's hot.

The NL leaders contain no surprises...almost. Ryan Ludwick has certainly caught the eye of fantasy players. He's hitting .323 with 13 HRs and 43 RBIs. Coming into the year, Ludwick was expected to be a platoon player against lefties in a crowded St. Louis outfield, at best, but he capitalized on Chris Duncan's slow start and took over the job completely. He's been hot all year, but was still available in most leagues through the middle of May. Also nice to see Jason Bay back up among the leaders in any category after a miserable 2007 season.

Transient Power Revisited

2008-06-03T11:26:00.002-04:00

Back in April we took a look at a few players who had inordinately high HR/F ratios. We stated that the power surge for each of these bats was going to slow down over the next month. Let's take a look to see how they have fared since April 25th.

Hanley Ramirez: HR/F ratio dropped by 14.0%. Has hit only 2 HRs in past 32 games (compared to 7 in his first 23 games).

Casey Kotchman: HR/F ratio dropped by 15.8%. Has not gone yard since (stuck at 6 HRs)

Josh Willingham: Injured. He only played two games since our post.

Gary Matthews, Jr: HR/F ratio dropped by 9.3%. He has hit only 2 HRs in his past 30+ games.

Yunel Escobar: HR/F ratio dropped by 5.6%. Same as Matthews; 2 HRs in his past 30+ games.

The top 50 players in HR/F at this point look largely legit. Guys like Jack Cust, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, etc. can and will all sustain a high HR/F rate. There are still a few though that I think will see a slow down in power. Here are four guys in the top 50 that I think are due for a regression.

Ryan Ludwick: He is sporting a 25.1% HR/F rate to go along with his 13 HRs on the year. He has done this before: In 48 PA back in 2005 Ludwick had a 25.6% HR/F rate. That is too small of a sample size from which to draw a conclusion. In 339 PA last year he had only a 13.7% HR/F rate. He will likely end up on the south side of a 20.0% HR/F rate and will probably hit 12 or less HRs from here on out. His name doesn't carry a lot of weight so I don't really see him as a sell high. You might just have to ride him out.

Adrian Gonzalez: A-Gonz has been one of the most under appreciated studs this season. He has 17 HRs and 54 RBIs through 59 games. His HR/F rate stands at 23.3% and his previous season high is 16.9%. This could be the breakout year for A-Gonz so I'm not expecting a huge power drop-off. He is, however, not likely to hit HRs at a higher clip than his current pace. Analysis: Enjoy the top 25 production from this player drafted barely inside the top 100 picks.

Aaron Rowand: It may seem like I dislike Rowand a lot. I'll leave that where it is.

He is currently sporting a 20.1% HR/F rate and has 8 HRs on year. His previous high came all the back in 2004 when he had a 15.0% HR/F rate. I would not expect Rowand to hit more than 7 or 8 more dingers on the year.

Ryan Church: Sure, pick on the concussed guy. Yeah, it's easy to do but in this case it is justified. He did go yard in his first game back but I don't see the power lasting. He has a 23.8% HR/F rate. His previous high was 18.0% in 2006. He has 10 HRs on the year right now. He'll probably finish with 20-23 HRs. Not bad production, but if there is an overzealous Met fan in your league I'd see if there is a fit.

The Great Joba Debate

2008-06-01T22:47:00.007-04:00

Coming into the year, the Yankees drove their fans and fantasy players crazy by dropping hints that they were considering moving Joba out of his 8th inning setup role and into the rotation. Speculation increased further once they couldn't land Johan Santana in the offseason. Cautious of Joba throwing too many innings, they decided it was best to start the season with him as their primary setup man to Mariano Rivera. But, poor performances & eventual trips to the DL for their 4th & 5th starters, Ian Kennedy & Phil Hughes, created a void in the rotation and an opening for Joba that was just too tempting to pass up. So it was announced last week that super setup man Chamberlain would begin stretching out so he could enter the rotation. There are many opinions about this move in both the fantasy and real sports worlds. Even here at Pseudo Sports there are differing opinions. That could only mean one thing...it's time for an old-fashioned faceoff.

Mike - Bad Move
Last year's performance by Joba will never be matched. Let's get that out of the way from the start - what he did last year was off the charts in terms of performance and injecting life into a struggling Yankee team. In 21 appearances, he had a ridiculous 0.38 ERA and 34 Ks in just 24 innings. Opponents hit just .145 off him and he had great control (just 6 walks). Even with the high Ks, he only needed 14.3 pitches per inning. So far in 2008, Joba's thrown 23 2/3 innings and has racked up 30 Ks with a 2.28 ERA. Opponents are hitting .190 off him and he's required slightly more pitches per inning - 17.

While he's given up a few more runs, his numbers so far have been solid. However, the big difference this year is that he's been mixing in more of his pitches. Last year, he was strictly a fastball/slider pitcher. Since the beginning of May, he's been showing his curveball and a changeup. While it's rumored that these pitches are as good as his slider (more so for the curveball), he still doesn't have the feel for them like he does the slider and the fastball. Last year, hitters swung and missed at his slider nearly 75% of the time. He's not getting that same success rate with the other pitches just yet. He also can't throw his curve for strikes at the same frequency. This is evident in the fact that in almost the same amount of innings pitched, he's walked almost twice as many batters, 11, as he did last year.

So what does this all mean for the success of the Yankees and Joba's impact in the fantasy world? For one, he can't come out firing bullets the same way he does when he comes out of the bullpen, knowing that he only has to deal with 1 or 2 innings at most. He also has to deal with the fact that he will be facing hitters more than once a game. It's an obvious fact, but it goes a long way. Because of this, he will be forced to display more of his arsenal every inning to mix things up. And because these pitches aren't as dominant, it will lead to more overall pitches at best, and more contact/hits at worst. Combine this with the fact that he will be on strict pitch counts and it's hard to see Joba as anything more than a 5 or 6 inning pitcher. This is not something easily absorbed by any team, but this could be especially troubling for the Yankees. Without Joba's presence, the Yankees bullpen in front of Mariano is average, at best. Mike Mussina is already one 6 inning pitcher on their staff, and it's hard for any team to deal with 2 at the same time. Add to this that Mussina is scheduled to follow Joba in the rotation, and the Yankees have to hope that they have big leads in the games they pitch since the bullpen is going to have to throw a minimum of 3 innings a night for 2 nights in a row. This can also trickle down and have a negative impact on Wang, Pettite & Rasner.

A spent bullpen will lead to more blown leads and it's a hard trend to stop unless your staff as a whole can eat innings. The hope is that Joba will be able to ease into the starter's role & in short time, be able to get his strength up so that 100 pitches won't be an issue. All this while hoping he can bring his same dominating stuff to the role. This would allow him to be fresh in October and set them up for a post-season run. The failure of the Yankees in recent Octobers has been the lack of a dominant, frontline starter. They're making the move in the hopes that Joba can be just that. But this move is coming at the expense of the bullpen in more ways than one. And as we are about to post this, the new 8th inning man for the Yankees, Kyle Farnsworth, just took the loss against the Twins.

Chris - Good Move

The move to the rotation is a good one for both the Yankees and Joba's fantasy owners. The bottom line is that Joba is more valuable to all parties involved if he is getting 15+ outs per game rather than 3-6. Joba is no stanger to the starting rotation. In college Chamberlain made 32 starts. He maintained a 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with a 2.91 BB/9 and a healthy 10.07 K/9. In 15 minor league starts he posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 2.76 BB/9 and an even healthier 13.79 K/9. The talent and ability to start games and pitch well is there.

Mike makes a good point regarding Joba's expected innings pitched per start. It will certainly take a few starts to get to the 6.0 inning range and there is no guarantee that he will pitch any deeper than that. This might limit his win potential, as it does with guys like Pedro Martinez and Chris Young. But from a fantasy perspective wins aren't the only valuable contribution from a starter. A K/9 rate over 10.0 is more useful over a larger number of innings, and the same goes for stellar ratios. This is a big win for fantasy owners.

As for the state of the Yankees 'pen, that's a different story. They will need to go out and get an arm to help out in relief. Brian Fuentes is the name that is spoken about the most. Fuentes would be a good fit but he would not be able to replicate Joba's numbers. But he wouldn't have to do that. Maybe Edwar Ramirez will step up and fill the 8th inning role. There is no requirement to have one specific guy for the 8th inning. A mix and match approach may work even better than having defined roles for one specific inning. The key here though is that it is much easier to find an arm for the bullpen than it is to find a potential front-line starting pitcher.

And the million dollar question - what if he fails? Well, if Joba fails as a starter, so what? He goes back to the bullpen and resumes 8th inning duties. If you have a talent like Chamberlain you need to extract the most value from him. The way to do that is to use him in such a way that he dominates over as many innings as he can. Stretching him out and trying him in the rotation is the logical move.

24/7 Baseball News Source

2008-05-31T16:29:00.002-04:00

If you are looking for the latest news on your favorite MLB teams and players you should check out Major League Report. The site is maintained by the guys over at MLB Front Office and they do a great job with news updates.

Pickup Artists

2008-05-29T22:39:00.009-04:00

Working the waiver wire for key pickups is essential to success in any format. On the flip side, it's just as important to know when it's time to cut ties with some of your guys who aren't performing. Let's take a look at some of the most added and dropped players (as of Thursday), courtesy of ESPN.com.

Most Added
Dan Wheeler 2.7% owned to 35.1%: Wheeler was well on his way to having a nice season as the main set up man to Troy Percival for the surprising Rays. Percival is headed to the DL and astute owners snapped him up as soon as news broke about Percival exiting Wednesday's game. Percival is only expected to miss the minimum 15 days with his hamstring strain, but any time a 38 year old tweaks a hamstring, it's more than possible that an extended stay on the DL will be required. Wheeler's numbers are nice as is - 2.19 ERA, 18Ks in 24 2/3 innings and a 0.89 WHIP - so adding saves bumps him into the useful category. If Wheeler is available and you could use some help in the saves department, he is definitely worth adding.

Jerry Hairston Jr. 16.0% owned to 42.6%: This one is a bit surprising, as most figured Hairston would be losing playing time with the arrival of Jay Bruce to the outfield. But with Jeff Keppinger's injury, he has been getting playing time rotating both in the outfield & infield. He seems to be one of Dusty Baker's preferred guys, which means Dusty will find a way to get him regular at bats. In his last 10 games, he's gotten 39 plate appearances and has collected 11 hits. More importantly, he's swiped 6 bags in these 10 games. He's not going to give you much, but if you need stolen bases, he's worth a shot.

Dana Eveland 53.3% owned to 73.6%: responding to his 3 hit complete game effort against the Rays last week, fantasy owners grabbed Eveland. Quietly, he's having a solid season for the A's, sporting a 2.90 ERA & a 1.16 WHIP. Just today though, he got rocked for 7 runs against the Blue Jays. Still, Eveland is worth a roster spot until the A's come back down to earth and the league catches up with him.

Jesse Litsch 9.7% owned to 29.0%: Litsch tossed a CGSO Saturday against the Royals, no doubt driving up his pickup rate. He followed that up with a 7 inning shutout performance against Dana Eveland and the A's today. He's gone 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA this month. He's not a big strikeout guy (just 50 in 111 innings before today's starts) but you can't blame anyone for riding him while he's hot. He's still not a tremendous option, but you could do worse.

Kevin Kouzmanoff 60.5% owned to 78.8%: Rumors were swirling a week ago that Kooz's days as the Padres starting 3rd baseman were in serious jeopardy with super prospect Chase Headley looming, but he's survived the threat so far. Who knows, maybe it motivated him a bit. In his last 10 games, he's hit 5 HRs with 8 RBIs and is slugging .659. He's even hitting for a decent average - a .293 clip over the last 10. He might not be available in most leagues, but if you are dealing with a struggling 3rd baseman, Kouzmanoff is worth riding while he's streaking.

Most Dropped
Ten of the top 11 players dropped the most are starting pitchers. And honestly, they're all similar. Here are the top 5:

Randy Wolf
Doug Davis
Aaron Laffey
Greg Smith
Andrew Miller

Wolf has been consistent and is still getting Ks. He is definitely a much better pitcher at home in Petco (who isn't), so not wanting to waste a roster spot just for his home starts is understandable. Not much else to say about the rest of the crop. Davis came back strong from his cancer surgery, but got hit hard in his second start. To me, the most interesting drop is the man who came in 6th on this list - Johnny Cueto. He hasn't been dominant like he was in the early going, but it's important to remember that he's still a rookie. He's strung together 3 solid outings now and is definitely worthy of a roster spot.

Stream Team - Week 9

2008-05-28T23:24:00.002-04:00

Every week we'll take a look at less-heralded starting pitchers that have favorable weekend match-ups.

My season winning percentage in this column is now an ugly .500. That is unacceptable. My goal heading into the season with this column was to find a useful H2H spot start option for the three days of the weekend at least two-thirds of the time. Hopefully this weekend will get me back on track.

Friday, May 30th

Todd Wellemeyer: Wellemeyer faces off against the Phil Dumatrait and the Pirates. The current Pitt lineup is hitting only .200 against Wellemeyer. In his last four outings Wellemeyer has provided the Cards with Quality Starts. He'll look to continue that streak on Friday.

Saturday, May 31st

Josh Banks: Banks has only thrown 8 innings this year, but they are of the scoreless variety. Without much else to go on, this is purely a play against the Giants inept offense (though they are proving me wrong right now as they hammer the D-Backs).

Sunday, June 1st

Darrell Rasner: Rasner may or may not be available on the wire in your league. If he is, I'd consider holding onto him until his hot streak subsides. He will get the start on Sunday against Blackburn and the Twins. Rasner, like Wellemeyer, has four straight Quality Starts. The current Twins lineup is also hitless against Rasner (albeit in a tiny sample size). I like Rasner to throw another Quality Start in this one.

Last Week's Results: 1-2-0, Season Total: 8-8-2

Olsen: L, 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 11 BR, 2 SO (Awful)

Jackson: W, 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 BR, 2 SO (mediocre, but got the W)

Parra: ND, 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 10 BR, 3 SO (not his best outing)

Umps and the Bumps

2008-05-27T21:56:00.007-04:00

Every fantasy player is looking for an edge. The stat that nobody knows about, the matchups, weather conditions...anything. We appreciate that here at Pseudo Sports, so we are providing you with umpire stats. Is there such a thing as a pitcher's ump, or is that just something that the talking heads spew to fill up air time? While we wouldn't recommend starting or sitting someone just because of the umpires on a given night, is checking out who is behind the plate if you're at your wit's end trying to decide between 2 pitchers helpful? Let's take a look at a few useful categories for umpires with at least 5 games behind the plate this year.

Ks per Innings Pitched:
Top 5 - Dan Iassogna 0.89172, Dale Scott 0.88835, Angel Campos 0.8629, Tim Tschida 0.85142, Phil Cuzzi 0.83444

Bottom 5 - Tim McClelland 0.55166, Kerwin Danley 0.55172, Jim Joyce 0.60577, Ed Rapuano 0.625, Randy Marsh 0.62824

% of Pitches that are Strikes:
Top 5 - Tim Welke 46.3%, Phil Cuzzi 46.2%, Dan Iassogna 45.8%, Hunter Wendelstedt 45.8%, Larry Vanover 45.7%

Bottom 5 - Tim McClelland 41.0%, Paul Schrieber 41.5%, Greg Gibson 41.7%, Bob Davidson 41.8%, Joe West 41.9%

BBs per Innings Pitched:
Top 5 - Tim Timmons 0.27, Jeff Nelson 0.27273, Dale Scott 0.29612, Tim Welke 0.30682, Bill Miller 0.30836

Bottom 5 - Chad Fairchild 0.51286, Bill Welke 0.51119, Greg Gibson 0.49829, Marvin Hudson 0.49662, Charlie Reliford 0.49155

ERA:
Top 5 - Gary Cederstrom 3.06, Mike Estabrook 3.08, Jeff Nelson 3.27, Chuck Meriwether 3.31, Adrian Johnson 3.34

Bottom 5 - Kerwin Danley 5.90, Bill Welke 5.90, Tim McClelland 5.72, Jerry Crawford 5.61, Scott Barry 5.49

Based on the data above, if you're looking for strikeouts, Dan Iassogna seems to be the man. Tim McClelland, on the other hand, is not. In fact, McClelland is in the bottom 5 in 3 of the 4 categories listed. Other than that though, the stats don't absolutely back the fact that there are umpires that favor pitchers over hitters. The sample size for 2008 is still a bit small, so maybe that's why the evidence is inconclusive. However, it appears that making lineup decisions based on umpires could be as beneficial as flipping a coin. Not all over the top in depth analysis is necessary.

All information presented above was obtained from Baseball Prospectus

How'd We Do?

2008-05-26T22:39:00.008-04:00

Last week, we looked at some players who we thought were on the verge of breaking out. It's only been a week and a half since, but admittedly, patience is not one of our strongest attributes here at Pseudo Sports..so let's take a look to see how they've done since.

CC Sabathia: In 2 starts since the post, Sabathia has yet to register to a win (he's 0-1), but has racked up 13 Ks in 14 innings while only allowing 3 ERs for a 1.93 ERA. The loss came in a 4-1 duel with Jose Contreras where Sabathia left after 7, trailing 2-1. The no decision came in a game against Cleveland that wasn't decided until the 10th inning. Sabathia left in the 8th in a 1-1 game. Even though Sabathia didn't get a win, he's performed well in all other categories since our endorsement, so we'll call this one a win.

Ryan Howard: In the 10 games since our post, Howard has struck out 17 times. Nothing new from someone who set the single season strikeout record last year and will probably establish a new mark this year. But in those 10 games, Howard blasted 5 HRs and picked up 12 RBIs while batting .275. He also had an OPS of 1.081 over these 10 games. Howard's been hot and has been putting up the numbers closer to what everyone expected in the preseason. Yes, the strikeouts are high and the average isn't stellar, but did anyone expect anything different? You draft Ryan Howard for power numbers and he's been producing those over the last 10 games, so count this one as a win.

Robinson Cano: We were reluctant to say Cano was officially out of his season long slump, but felt the signs were there and the end was near. So how did he do? In Cano's 8 games, he batted .345 with 7 RBIs and even threw a stolen base into the mix. He had hits in 5 of the 8 games and put up an OBP of .412. 5 of his 10 hits were doubles, meaning he's finally starting to make solid contact and hit the gaps. That has been something that's made him so successful in the past. Cano is a nice buy low candidate right now as he and the Yankee offense seem to finally be coming out of their funk. Outcome - win.

Ryan Braun: Braun was already on his way by the time we made the post, having hit 5 HRs in his previous 5 games. Since then, he's slowed down a bit, hitting 3 more HRs but with just 7 RBIs while hitting .270 in 9 games. He has an OPS of .857. Nothing stellar. These numbers are certainly on the lower end of what you'd expect from Braun, so we'll call this one a loss.

Carlos Beltran: Beltran's line in the 9 games since the post reads: .289 , 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB, & 6 runs. Pretty solid all around numbers for Beltran while his Mets are struggling mightily. If Beltran can continue to put up numbers like this throughout, his owners will be satisfied, though not overly thrilled. He still needs to produce a bit more in the power department. This one is a push.

The Banana Stand - Week 8

2008-05-25T22:14:00.005-04:00

The Banana Stand is a weekly look back at the fantasy week that was.

The big news this week revolves around two of MLB's future stars (aces?). Clayton Kershaw finally made his big league debut. He faced the Cardinals and allowed two runs in six innings. He struck out 7, walked 1 and gave up 5 hits. The line looks good, but digging a little deeper shows that the outing was not completely smooth. He threw over 30 pitches in the first inning. Unless he can throw more strikes, especially early in games, he will be prone to short outings. All things considered though, this was a nice debut. Yahoo! owners, place your bids.

The Yankees have begun stretching out eighth inning giant Joba Chamberlain into a starter. He has made two appearances thus far, throwing 40 in his last start. It will be interesting to see what he does when he is given the ball to start a game, but we won't see that for another three weeks or so. Joba is probably not available in many leagues right now, but you should double-check. In any 10 team mixed league or deeper he should be rostered.

In the GOTOS expert league we are still mired in the middle of the pack. There is hope though. Our bats are starting to pick things up. Young phenom Evan Longoria had a big weekend, hitting two HRs on Saturday and a game-winning RBI double on Sunday. Kouz also went yard twice in one game, doing so in the 18 inning tilt against the Reds.

Stream Team - Week 8

2008-05-22T19:53:00.003-04:00

Every week we'll take a look at less-heralded starting pitchers that have favorable weekend match-ups.

Friday, May 23rd
Scott Olsen: Going back to him again. Olsen faces off against Barry Zito and the hapless Giants at home. He has gone at least 6.0 innings in his last three starts and the current Giants roster doesn't hit him well (not that they hit anyone well). In 55 AB they are batting just .236 and slugging .327 against Olsen.

Saturday, May 24th
Edwin Jackson: Yet another repeat from last week. Jackson has been superb as of late, giving up only 1 ER in his last 20.1 IP. He has also struck out 15 batters during that stretch. He will be facing off against Steve Trachsel and the Orioles.

Sunday, May 25th
Manny Parra: Parra was my NL ROY pick in the pre-season and that has just not panned out how I thought it would. Parra's has generally pitched well, but he has Chris Young syndrome. For some reason he feels the need to throw 100 pitches by the 5th inning which limits his win potential. As of late though he's pitched very well. In his last start he shut out the Pirates over 5.2 innings, striking out 6 batters along the way. Parra is on the road against Tim Redding and the Nationals. Redding has been a nice surprise this season, but the Brew Crew has .371 against him lifetime while slugging .500.

Last Week's Results: 1-1-1, Season Total: 7-6-2
Scott Olsen: ND, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 12 Base Runners, 3 SO (I'm taking a draw on this one because a rainout pushed back his start to Saturday)

Matt Garza: ND, 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 12 BR, 1 SO

Edwin Jackson: ND, 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 BR, 7 SO

No Hitter Fantasy Impact

2008-05-21T16:03:00.003-04:00

Check out our recent post on Fantasy Phenoms that investigates a pitcher's performance after throwing a no hitter and the potential fantasy impact.

Trade Review

2008-05-20T19:31:00.003-04:00

So I made my first significant trade of the year last Thursday. It was in one of my H2H 7x7 leagues.

I shipped out Garrett Atkins and I received Josh Beckett

My roster had a logjam at the corners. I have David Ortiz (1B), Conor Jackson, Chipper Jones and Evan Longoria for four slots. With Atkins on my roster, one of these five hitters were on my bench every night. I have always been a big believer in filling your bench with pitchers rather than hitters, and the way I had constructed this team to date went against that principle.

Garrett Atkins is having a great start to the season. At the time of the trade he was batting .335 with 7 homers. He was the most valuable chip for me to use in trade discussions because he was playing well and he had a track record. Chipper has the injury tag, Ortiz had the slow start, and C-Jax and Longoria are unproven. I'm a believer in all five of these guys for this season so I didn't have an issue with dealing any one of them in particular.

Josh Beckett started the year on the DL and that greatly affected his ADP. Many owners were scared of Beckett this year because of the early back trouble and also because, as fantasy owners, we've become skeptical of pitchers who derive value from lofty win totals. But buying Beckett at this stage of the season was intriguing because he already spent time on the DL. Now, this does not preclude him from having further injury troubles this season. It does, however, mean that I am now the owner of a top 20 SP and I did not have to waste a roster spot or draft pick on him while he was injured.

Do you think this was a good trade? Do you think either owner made received far superior value?

The Banana Stand - Week 7

2008-05-18T23:02:00.008-04:00

The Banana Stand is a weekly look back at the fantasy week that was.

Week 7 saw some big offensive outbursts that fantasy players have been craving since week 1. After signing an 8 year, $45 million contract earlier in the week, Ryan Braun decided to show Brewer management why he is worth that much money. In 33 ABs this week, Braun went yard 8 times. He's already got 10 HRs in May and is making up for his slow start in a big way.

It's hard to think that anyone could have been hotter than Braun last week, but Alfonso Soriano was. While hitting 7 HRs and racking up 14 RBIs, Soriano hit well over .500 for the week. This, after rumors were swirling that Soriano and his season opening slump should be moved down in the lineup. So much for that idea.

While his week wasn't as impressive as Braun's or Soriano's, Lance Berkman kept up his great start. In what can be classified as just an average week for him this year, Berkman hit .461 with 4 HRs and 9 RBIs. He even threw a couple of stolen bases in his stat line for good measure. Berkman has undoubtedly been the best fantasy player so far. He's hovering around .400 with 16 HRs, 44 RBIs and 8 SBs. It's hard to imagine him keeping up this pace, but Berkman has quietly been one of the most reliable fantasy players over the last 7 years. It's safe to say that at the very least, he'll produce better than average numbers for the rest of the season. While it's no guarantee, think ARod from last year where his great start propelled him to an MVP season.

On the pitching side, Cole Hamels finally threw the first CGSO of his career against the Braves on Wednesday. Hamels bounced back from a couple of rough starts in which the Phillies offense bailed him out a bit, but he is well on his way to putting together a top 10 year.

The most interesting matchup came Sunday, when 2 of the best fantasy pitchers to date, Cliff Lee and Edinson Volquez, faced off. Even though Volquez struggled a bit with his command, he still managed to get a win while tossing 6 innings, giving up two earned runs and striking out 5. The suddenly unhittable Cliff Lee finally showed that he is really the same Cliff Lee we'd seen the past few years. Both should be fine going forward, but not likely to be as good as they've been so far.

In other big fantasy news, the boys at Greener on The Other Side took it to the big time this week, unleashing their website Fantasy Phenoms on the fantasy community. Expect the same sabermetrical analysis and more (including football), with an expanded staff of writers. Fantasy Phenoms will feature a weekly piece from Pseudo Sports. Check it out & let us know what you think.

Power Outage

2008-05-16T06:00:00.000-04:00

A lack of power is one of the easiest ways for a player to get under a fantasy owner's skin. There are certain guys who need to display power in order to help your fantasy team. One way to measure power is Isolated Power (ISO or IsoP). Isolated Power measures a hitter's ability to generate extra base hits. The formula is:

Isolated Power = Slugging Percentage - Batting Average

Now let's take a look at a few players who have disappointed in the power department so far this season.

Travis Hafner He has disappointed for two straight seasons now and many owners are wondering if he'll ever be more than a 25 HR player now. In 2006 he hit 42 HR and had an ISO of .350. This season he has 3 HR in 135 AB and an ISO of .126. One telling statistic is his HR/FB., which has fallen in each of the last two seasons (3o.7%, 15.9%, 8.8%). It looks like Hafner may end up as another player with Old Man Skills who aged poorly.

Victor Martinez Pronk's teammate has also been a disappointment this season, with 0 HR through his first 117 AB. V-Mart's ISO is .060 which is less than a third of his 2007 mark of .205. His GB% is up a bit this year (49.5%) but other than that there is no reason to doubt his power as he should eventually get around to hitting 20+ HR this season.

Kevin Kouzmanoff Kouz got owners excited heading into this season because of his big second half in 2007. He started the season in the clean-up spot and was hot out of the gate, but cooled down quickly thereafter. He has 3 HR in 169 AB. He has a .104 ISO while his mark last year was .186. Kouz calls Petco Park home therefore any power projections need to be tempered from the start. However, he needs to start hitting doubles and homers sooner rather than later or else his owners are going to look elsewhere for production.

Big Names Busting Out?

2008-05-15T22:17:00.006-04:00

We're a quarter of the way through the season, which is a nice enough sample size to make determinations about player performances. As is this case every year, a lot of high draft picks got off to slow starts, something that most fantasy teams can't avoid. But as we enter the 2nd quarter, it seems like some big name players are turning it around and are on their way to their customary place atop the fantasy ranks. Let's take a look at some players who fit this bill.

CC Sabathia: After a terrible start to the season, Sabathia's last two starts have netted him 20 strikeouts, just one earned run, and a CGSO. Compare that to his first 4 starts, where he gave up a whopping 27 runs in just 18 innings. Since dropping to 0-3, Sabathia has had 5 starts in which he's gone 3-2 (one of the losses was a 1-0 loss where he tossed 8 innings). More importantly, he's had 43 Ks during the 5 game stretch. Although a member of the dreaded 3500 club, Sabathia looks like he's shaken off the early season rust and is primed to make a big push toward a fat contract in the offseason.

Ryan Howard: While last year proved that Ryan Howard's MVP season of 2006 produced an unlikely average, it also proved that Howard is a production machine as he finished the year with 47 HRs and 136 RBIs. As April wrapped up, it looked like Howard would be lucky to reach even half of those numbers. But May rolled in and it looks like Howard has finally found his power stroke. He's homered the past two nights, bringing his May total to 4. His average is still well below the Mendoza line, but his .182 average is actually an improvement from last month. He is still striking out at a record pace, which definitely hurts in leagues that penalize Ks. Throughout his career, Howard has been a perennial member of the all Chronic Tardiness Team (players who get off to terrible starts but eventually turn it around), and it looks like this year is no different.

Robinson Cano: We might be a bit premature by proclaiming Cano out of his miserable season opening slump which has extended to May, but he is showing all the signs. With his 4 hit performance on Wednesday night, Cano finally crept his average over .200. He has 11 hits in his past 7 games and has collected at least 1 hit in 10 of his past 12 games. Anyone who saw Cano's ABs in the beginning of the year could tell that he was just in a nasty funk. He wasn't his usual, patient self and was putting lazy swings on the ball that usually resulted in weak outs. For the past 2 weeks, he has shown a much more patient approach, and it seems to be paying off. Also a member of the all Chronic Tardiness Team, this is nothing new for Cano. Expect his average to keep rising and some hot streaks to make up for his awful start.

Ryan Braun: As giddy as everyone was about what Braun did in limited time as a rookie last year, it was nowhere near how worried we were when he got off to a slow start to the 2008 season. It's safe to say we can all relax, as Braun is well on his way toward proving that last year was not a fluke. Braun is already up to 10HRs and 30 RBIs with a .286 average. He only has 1 SB, but he will most likely see a fairly substantial decrease in stolen bases every year if he keeps hitting with the power that he's showing. After just 3 HRs in April, Braun has blown up with 7 in May already, and has 5 in his last 5 games. Hopefully this slow start won't be the norm for him every year. And just to be clear...this is Ryan J. Braun we're talking about.

Carlos Beltran: Beltran seems to be one of those alternating year fantasy studs. His standout years always come in the even years, so superstitious owners were hoping that the trend held true this year. It wan't looking that way in the early going, but Beltran is starting to heat up as of late. He's raised his average from .211 to .246 in the month of May. He's currently riding an 8 game hitting streak in which he's put up 10 RBIs. The power is still lacking a bit, as are the stolen bases, but it appears as if Beltran is finally getting his stroke back.

Stream Team - Week 7

2008-05-15T06:00:00.002-04:00

Every week we'll take a look at less-heralded starting pitchers that have favorable weekend match-ups.

This weekend marks the outset of 2008 interleague play. We are going to roll with the Florida arms and hope they can provide some help in the pitching categories this fantasy week.

Friday, May 16th

Scott Olsen: Olsen is set to face off against Brett Tomko and the hapless Royals at home. Kansas City has scored the least amount of runs in the AL (136), meanwhile Florida is 7-3 in their last 10 games and sits atop the NL East. Olsen has been hit or miss this season, throwing gems like he did against the Brewers earlier this month and getting into trouble in others (not as much trouble as he used to though - see photo). The inept Royal offense should prove to be a nice matchup.

Saturday, May 17th

Matt Garza: Garza faces of against Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals in St. Louis. Garza is coming off a dominating performance against the Yankees where he pitched seven shutout innings. The Cardinals have been sputtering as of late and have scored more than three runs in a game only once in the last week. Here's hoping that Garza can build on that last performance.

Sunday, May 18th

Edwin Jackson: Jackson, like teammate Matt Garza, is coming off a dominating performance against the Yankees. He threw eight shutout innings but Percival blew the save. Jackson is facing off against Kyle Lohse, who has lost his last 3 decisions during which he's given up 19 ER in 17 IP.

Last Week's Results: 1-2-0, Season Total: 6-5-1

Gil Meche: L, 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Base Runners, 2 SO

Jamie Moyer: L, 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 BR, 1 SO (Never Again, I've learned my lesson)

Jeff Suppan: W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 BR, 4 SO (Didn't help the WHIP, but got the win and kept the ERA down)

Position Scarcity & EqA

2008-05-14T22:44:00.006-04:00

Last week, we took a look at the sabermetric stat Equivalent Average. In a nutshell, EqA measures total offensive output by taking into consideration batting and baserunning stats with adjustments for home park, team pitching and league offensive level.

EqA is calibrated to resemble batting average, so let's assume that an EqA above .300 translates into better than average fantasy production. Below is a list of regulars by position with an EqA above .300 (total for position in parentheses) to see how deep each position has been to this point in the season.

Catchers (4): Geovany Soto, .324; Brian McCann, .314; Joe Mauer, .312; Ryan Doumit, .321
First Basemen (7): Lance Berkman, .399; Albert Pujols, .376; Kevin Youkilis, .327; Derrek Lee, .316; Conor Jackson, .322; Adrian Gonzalez, .311; Nick Johnson, .310
Second Basemen (3): Chase Utley, .399; Dan Ugla, .331, Ian Kinsler, .300
Third Basemen (4): Chipper Jones, .380; David Wright, .315; Aramis Ramirez, .307; Scott Rolen, .323
Shortstops (3): Rafael Furcal, .346; Hanley Ramirez, .331; Miguel Tejada, .302
Left Fielders (7): Pat Burrell, .344; Josh Willingham, .343; Jack Cust, .332; Carlos Quentin, .320; Matt Holliday, .312; Manny Ramirez, .312; Jason Bay, .309
Center Fielders (4): Nate McLouth, .323; Aaron Rowand, .316; Josh Hamilton, .315; Rick Ankiel, .306
Right Fielders (8): Ryan Ludwick, .361; Xavier Nady, .322; Ryan Church, .314; Eric Hinske, .309; Magglio Ordonez, .305; Justin Upton, .303; Nick Markakis, .302; Kosuke Fukudome, .302

All information used above was obtained from Baseball Prospectus.

High and Dry

2008-05-14T06:00:00.000-04:00

About a month ago we took a look at some pitchers who were sporting low (read: unlucky) strand rates. Now that we have one quarter of the MLB schedule in the books we can attempt to draw solid conclusions about the underlying numbers for both pitchers and hitters.

Below is a list of the top five and other notable pitchers that have not found any luck with runners on base. The statistics next to each pitcher are their 2008 LOB%, their career LOB%, their 2008 ERA, and their 2008 xFIP.

Justin Verlander 56.4% 75.9% 6.43 5.11
Mark Buehrle 58.0% 72.29% 5.81 3.67
Barry Zito 58.2% 74.26% 6.58 5.50
Johnny Cueto 58.2% N/A 5.91 3.75
Boof Bonser 58.5% 71.64% 5.09 4.46
Bronson Arroyo 58.5% 69.65% 7.14 4.22
James Shields 61.9% 72.1% 3.14 3.86
Josh Beckett 63.9% 72.42% 3.70 3.06
Randy Wolf 65.3% 73.43% 5.16 4.16
AJ Burnett 66.3% 71.5% 4.94 4.13

Verlander was atop this list back on April 18th. Since then his strand rate has improved 20.3% but his ERA has shown only slight improvement. There is some concern that he is hiding an injury but if he is healthy then his ERA should move closer to his xFIP over the next few months (xFIP is Fielding Independent Pitching with a normalized HR component and can be found at The Hardball Times).

Buehrle, Zito, Bonser and Arroyo are all in similar situations in that they have strand rates in the high 50s (at least 10 percentage points lower than their respective career averages), high ERAs and lower xFIP. We are not endorsing any of these arms, but rather suggesting that each is in line to see some improvement in the ERAs as the season goes on, assuming their luck evens out.

Cueto is a special case because he is a rookie. Back in mid-April we warned that although his strand rate was low we should not expect a dramatic improvement in his ERA. Well, since then his ERA has risen over 2.5 runs. Cueto will be frustrating to own as he figures out the majors this season but he is certainly worth owning while he irons out the wrinkles.

Shields is the only pitcher on this list whose xFIP is higher than his ERA. Shields will likely end up with an ERA in the mid to high 3's and will provide incredible value relative to his ADP (which was way too low to begin with).

Beckett, Wolf and Burnett are due for some good fortune too. Wolf especially, considering that his strand rate is 8 percentage points lower than his career average and his xFIP is a full run lower than his ERA.

It is important to note that LOB% is only one component of many that you can/should use to evaluate pitchers. The next time we revisit this topic we will look at the flipside - pitchers who have been lucky.

K/9 Cops

2008-05-12T22:39:00.003-04:00

An Important stat in the fantasy world is strikeouts per 9 innings. It's a simple formula (total strikeouts divided by innings pitched, multiplied by 9), but helpful in that it's a stat dedicated to one specific fantasy category alone. Coming into today's action, here are the leaders in K/9 for starters with at least 3 starts:

Rich Harden - 12.24 Ks per 9
John Smoltz - 12 Ks per 9
Chad Billingsley - 11.16 Ks per 9
Edinson Volquez - 11.06 Ks per 9
Jonathan Sanchez - 9.79 Ks per 9
Tim Lincecum - 9.48 Ks per 9
Randy Johnson - 9.44 Ks per 9
Wandy Rodriguez - 9.27 Ks per 9
Clay Buchholz - 9.24 Ks per 9
Josh Beckett - 9.15 Ks per 9

Nothing shocking here. Once again, Rich Harden proves why he is by far the most frustrating person in the history of fantasy sports. When healthy, he's good. Real good. Smoltz's K/9 will undoubtedly skyrocket once he returns from the DL as a reliever, but his overall value takes a hit with the move to the pen. While San Francisco's offense is terrible (at best) there is hope with their stable of young arms, including K/9 mainstays Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez. Lincecum is the more polished of the two and has elevated his game to stud level this year. While Sanchez isn't quite startable yet, he's got the talent worthy of a roster spot at this point. He's most likely experiencing some of the same growing pains that Lincecum went through last year and there's no reason to think that he won't be effective in the second half of the year. No surprise to see the career leader in strikeouts per 9, Randy Johnson, up among the leaders, but it still shocks me when I see Wandy Rodriguez atop any quality pitching list this year. I'll chalk it up to having most of his starts at home until he got hurt.

The Banana Stand - Week 6

2008-05-11T23:05:00.007-04:00

The Banana Stand is a weekly look back at the fantasy week that was.

Those in H2H leagues may have run into some unusual stat lines this week, adding fuel to the fire for those who prefer traditional roto formats. On the offensive side, Kevin Youkilis hit five homers and had 10 runs batted in. Youkilis might not hit five more homers for the rest of the year. Joey Votto hit three homers in one game. Lance Berkman continues to rake, but his owners might be even happier with the two swipes he had earlier in the week. On the downside, Alex Rios had a tough week, striking out 12 times. Patience is the key right now with Rios.

The most notable pitching issues from this week pertain to a couple of closers from the midwest. Eric Gagne was removed from the closer's role. Ned Yost, despite giving Gagne the dreaded vote of confidence on Tuesday, made the move and stated that Gagne needs a mental brea k. Gagne himself stated that he didn't deserve the role as he sports an ERA north of 6.00 and a WHIP north of 1.80. If money/value were not an issue Gagne would probably not be given the opportunity to earn back the job. However, his $10 million contract will most certainly play a factor. The smart money says that Gagne is closing again by late June and then is traded to a contender to become a set-up man (Yankees?). Expect either Torres or Mota to pick up saves in the mean time.

The other closer that lost his job is Jason Isringhausen. He has not been pitching well as he has given up 13 ER in only 15.2 innings. Ryan Franklin is the favorite for saves but it is assumed that Izzy will reclaim the closer role in a few weeks.

Fantasy Expert League Update:
We did not have a great week in the GOTOS league. While we remain in 6th place, our point total dropped down to 67.0 while Jordon from Rotorob has jumped into the lead with 93.0 points. J-Roll is back now so hopefully he can provide the spark our squad needs to make a push.

Stream Team - Week 6

2008-05-08T09:23:00.005-04:00

Every week we’ll take a look at less-heralded starting pitchers that have favorable weekend match-ups.

As we do every week, let’s take a look at which pitchers may be able to help you in the pitching categories this weekend.

Friday, May 9

Gil Meche: Meche faces off against Trachsel and the Orioles at home. His ERA and WHIP are unsightly (5.98 and 1.52 respectively) but he has been solid in his last two outings. Against Cleveland on the 4th he threw 7 shutout innings and struck out 4.

Saturday, May 10

Jamie Moyer: Moyer faces off against young phenom Tim Lincecum and the hapless Giants in San Francisco. This spot start is purely based on the inept Giants offense. Moyer did, however, have a strong outing agaisnt the D-Backs, allowing 2 ER in 7 innings while striking out 5. Many people employ a streaming strategy based on who is pitching against the Giants. I would not follow that exclusively, but this particular play (Moyer and the Phils) is certainly warranted.

Sunday, May 4

Jeff Suppan: Suppan is a two-start pitcher this week so he might not be readily available in NL-only leagues. The key to this matchup (at home vs. Looper and the Cards) is that the Brewers generally feast on Looper. In 101 ABs the Brew Crew is hitting .337 against Braden.

Last week’s results: 1-2-0, Season Total: 5-3-1

Shaun Marcum: 6.2 IP, Win, 5 Base Runners, 9 Ks.

John Lannan: His start got moved up to Friday so he wasn't availabe. I am taking a loss for this, however, b/c he got rocked on Friday night (5 ER in 3 IP).

Tom Glavine: 4.2 IP, ND, 12 BR, 6 ER, 3 SO. I took a gamble on the old guy and lost.

Equivalent Time

2008-05-05T13:03:00.000-04:00

One of the more complicated sabermetric offensive stats is Equivalent Average, or EqA. Created by Baseball Prospectus co-founder Clay Davenport, EqA attempts to measure total offensive output by considering batting and baserunning stats with adjustments for home park, team pitching and league offensive level. It is considered a useful metric because it includes all aspects of offense and it can be used to estimate runs scored, which is a good production indicator for fantasy purposes.

The formula for EqA is calibrated so that it resembles batting average. Raw EqA, calculated first, equals (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). Raw EqA is then adjusted for league difficulty so that the league average for EqA equals .260. For a detailed analysis of EqA and it's usefulness, see Baseball Prospectus' article explaining the calculation here.

Number crunching aside, let's take a look at the leaders in EqA from all games through 5/1/08. While the National League leaders contain mostly regulars, there are some surprise names in the American League leaders.

American League
Eric Hinske - .339
Carlos Quentin - .339
Manny Ramirez - .332
Carlos Guillen - .330
Casey Kotchman - .329
Josh Hamilton - .320
Adrian Beltre - .317
Milton Bradley - .315
Hideki Matsui - .314
Magglio Ordonez - .314

National League
Albert Pujols - .392
Chipper Jones - .378
Chase Utley - .369
Pat Burrell - .366
Rafael Furcal - .349
Derrek Lee - .347
Josh Willingham - .345
Connor Jackson - .342
Ryan Ludwick - .340
Lance Berkman - .339

At first glance, any fantasy player who's been paying attention this year can see the worth of EqA. The names you'd expect to see up there are. While you wouldn't expect to see Eric Hinske on the list all year, he's been extremely productive for the Rays so far. Another thing that jumps out is that the leaders in EqA in the National League have significantly higher EqAs than the American League leaders. In fact, Lance Berkman's 10h place EqA of .339 would be enough to lead the American League. This is most likely due to the lack of pitching in the National League as well as the fact that NL lineups are more condensed. Production for most NL lineups is contained to the heart of the order, whereas in the AL, most lineups are deeper and more offense is generated by the bottom of the order.

Keeping an eye on EqA can be a useful tool to see who is producing above league averages. It's not a one dimensional stat, so for fantasy purposes, high EqAs translate to all around fantasy production.

All information and calculations used above were obtained from Baseball Prospectus.

The Banana Stand - Week 5

2008-05-04T21:38:00.008-04:00

The Banana Stand is a weekly look back at the fantasy week that was.

The week that was started with Roy Halladay tossing his fourth straight complete game. Pretty amazing in today's game. Even more amazing......the last 3 complete games resulted in a loss for Halladay. He followed up the tough luck losses with a win on Sunday, throwing 7 1/3 innings giving up 3 runs (one earned). The Ks will always be down for him, but it's tough to find a more reliable fantasy starter than Halladay.

This week also claimed a number of big names to the DL. The consensus #1 overall fantasy pick coming in to the year, Alex Rodriguez, hit the DL Wednesday after battling a quad injury for the past week. He isn't expected to be out much longer than his DL stint, but any owner has to be worried about lingering effects of the injury once he returns. News of ARod being placed on the DL came a day after the Yankees put catcher Jorge Posada on the DL with a strained right shoulder. Posada's visit to Dr. James Andrews frightened owners and Yankee fans alike, but no major damage was found. Any time the good Dr.'s name comes up, there's always the fear that there's a season or career ending injury floating around. It was revealed that Posada will need two weeks of rest followed by two weeks of strengthening before going on a rehab assignment. This could mean that Posada will be able to DH or play first during the strengthening phase, giving fantasy owners some hope that he'll be back producing sooner than expected.

As if this wasn't enough for the Yankees, Phil Hughes also landed on the DL this week. It was first called an oblique strain, but was later dubbed a stress fracture in his rib-cage. The Yankees aren't expecting him back until July at the earliest. They will probably keep him in the minors for a significant time before bringing him back, rendering his fantasy value for this year virtually useless. One has to wonder if this is really a legitimate injury or if the Yankees are just attempting to preserve Hughes' value by blaming his terrible start this year on an injury.

Hughes' counterpart in the rotation, Ian Kennedy, was sent down to AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre on Sunday after his own miserable start to the year. After looking poised and ready in his 3 starts last year, his mental makeup has certainly come into question. On multiple occasions this year, he's made statements about the enormous pressure of pitching in New York. After being sent down, he mentioned that it'll be nice to pitch where every pitch isn't put under a microscope. That can't be comforting to Yankee management. It wouldn't be surprising if the Yankees throw in the towel on the young pitcher if the right deal comes along in the next couple of months. It's not out of the question for Kennedy go down to AAA and straighten everything out and contribute to the big team in short time. The yankees other options, Darrell Rasner & Kei Igawa, are no doubt on short leashes of their own.

Perhaps the biggest injury news of the week was Yovanni Gallardo's torn ACL. It's likely that he'll miss the entire year. This is a huge blow for both fantasy owners & the Brewers as Gallardo was really starting to become a force.

Although injuries were wreaking havoc across fantasy teams everywhere, there were some big name callups providing hope. Max Scherzer made his Major League debut on Wednesday, retiring all 13 batters he faced striking out 7 in the process. He has replaced Edgar Gonzalez in the Diamondbacks' rotation. He might not hold the spot for long with Doug Davis' imminent return, but he should still be owned in any league.

The Mariners, trying to wake up their struggling offense, called up big-time prospects Jeff Clement & Wladimir Balentien. Clement is certainly the more appealing option of the 2, especially considering that he'll see time behind the plate & will attain catcher eligibility in most leagues.

League Updates:
It was another contentious week at Pseudo Sports, as Chris & I faced off in our 7x7 league. Not much to say here other than I got beaten like a red-headed stepchild by a score of 11-2-1. I can't even blame the loss on not having ARod this week. It wouldn't have mattered. Chris is running away with the league while I'm hovering in mediocrity right in the middle of the pack.

In the Greener on the Other Side expert league, we made a charge as high as 4th early in the week, but we've dropped down 7th. The gap is narrowing between first and the rest of the pack, and spots 3-7 can change daily. We took a hit with the loss of Gallardo, but our pitching is pretty deep and has carried us thus far. We're eagerly awaiting the return of our #1 pick, Jimmy Rollins.

Stream Team - Week 5

2008-05-01T07:52:00.002-04:00

Every week we’ll take a look at less-heralded starting pitchers that have favorable weekend match-ups.

As we do every week, let’s take a look at which pitchers may be able to help you in the pitching categories this weekend.

Friday, May 2
Shaun Marcum: He is facing the White Sox at home on Friday. Marcum keeps the walks and hits to a minimum so he should be good for a 1.25 WHIP or better. His opponent Mark Buehrle has been pitching well but I’m going with the home arm in this battle.

Saturday, May 3
John Lannan: Riding the hot hand here. Lannan was recommended last week and he threw 7 shutout innings. He is home facing the Pirates and Paul Maholm, fresh off his complete game.

Sunday, May 4
Tom Glavine: Glavine is home against the struggling Bronson Arroyo and the Reds. Glavine has pitched well this year even though he is without a win. In his last outing he went 6 innings and gave up only 2 runs. He probably won’t rack up the strikeouts but if he can put up a quality start he’ll have a good chance at getting a win.

Last week’s results: 3-0-0, Season Total: 4-1-1
Mark Buehrle: ND, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 5 Base Runners. Buehrle was in line for the win until the bullpen blew it for him.

Luke Hochevar: W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 8 BR

John Lannan: W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 8 BR

High and Dry - Flipside

2008-04-30T07:37:00.002-04:00

Earlier this month we took a look at pitchers who have strand rates below their career norms. We will revisit their progress in a few weeks. Today we are taking a look at some pitchers who have stranded an inordinately high number of runners this season. These pitchers are due for a regression, and as such their ERAs will likely rise as their strand rates fall.

The statistics next to each pitcher are their 2008 LOB%, their career LOB%, and their 2008 ERAs.

Zack Greinke 91.4% 71.58% 1.25
Tim Lincecum 88.7% 69.11% 1.73
Scott Olsen 84.9% 61.45% 2.06
Jake Westbrook 84.5% 68.28% 2.73
Carlos Zambrano 83.7% 74.79% 2.21

Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum have pitched brilliantly since the start of the year but they have also been the recipient of some good luck. Their current strand rates are roughly 20 percentage points higher than their career averages and their HR/F rate are a paltry 4.9% and 3.7% respectively (league average is usually 11%). Those signs point to ERAs that are destined to rise above the 2.00 threshold over the next month or so.

Many owners are wondering if this is the season in which Scott Olsen puts it all together. It very well may be, but I doubt that he maintains a 2.06 ERA for too much longer. His current strand rate is over 23 percentage points higher than his career average. Even if his strand rate regresses only to the league average (roughly 71%) it should negatively affect his ERA. I would consider dealing Olsen in mixed leagues right now.

Jake Westbrook is an interesting case. His strand rate suggests that he has been lucky but his HR/F rate of 17.9% suggests that he’s been unlucky. Digging a bit further into the numbers, his FIP ERA is 4.36. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a way to measure a pitcher’s performance independent of his defense. That is a differential of 1.63 in the wrong direction. I’d expect a severe ERA correction in the coming months. Sell while you can.

Carlos Zambrano has pitched above his ADP so far this season. His strand rate differential suggests he is due to take a hit in ERA, but the rest of his statistics generally support his current performance level, or at least support a level that is reasonably close to his current plane. His ERA will certainly creep towards 3.00 over the next few months but it looks like he will prove to be a draft day value.

You can find the above statistics at The Hardball Times. The career strand rates were calculated using data found at MLB.com.

The Banana Stand - Week 4

2008-04-28T00:03:00.003-04:00

The Banana Stand is a weekly look back at the fantasy week that was.

There were many fantasy relevant elements during week four of the MLB season. We’ll tackle some of the more notable ones in this week’s installment of the Banana Stand.

On the hitting side, Lance Berkman, Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley and Garrett Atkins continue to rake. Hanley had 5 bombs this week, though that power is not likely to last. Jarrod Saltalamacchia got the call on Friday night and got the start on Saturday, going 1 for 3 with two walks and two strikeouts. He is expected to split time evenly with Gerald Laird which will put a dent in his fantasy value, for now. Matt Kemp hit a Grand Slam, the first of his career, on Saturday. Hopefully this will lead to more playing time for the talented OFer. David Ortiz has come alive, knocking in 10 over the past week. People are still worried about that knee so it might not be a bad idea to start shopping him during this hot streak. Clint Hurdle has been frustrating fantasy owners this week by shuffling Podsednik, Spilborghs and Taveras in and out of the line-up. Taveras sat out three games this week even though he is the superior all around player for fantasy purposes. Owners will want to monitor this situation closely, and it is a nightmare for those in weekly leagues. McLouth is still going strong after his hitting streak ended, with 3 HRs this past week. The most notable injury news concerns Jorge Posada and the Yankees. It was announced during Sunday’s game that Jorge is scheduled to visit with Dr. Andrews this week. That is awful news for those who spent a pick on him in the first 10 rounds of the draft.

On the pitching side, Clay Buchholz, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Paul Maholm and Roy Halladay all went the distance. Unfortunately for Halladay he did not pick up a win in that outing. Yovani Gallardo is in mid-season form throwing seven shutout innings. He is rewarding those owners that took him 110 picks into the draft. Johnny C has his first rough outing, giving up five runs in a loss to the Astros. Owners can expect the occasional blip from Cueto, but he will continue to shine all season. His compadre Edinson Volquez pitched 14 innings this week and gave up only two runs with 17 strikeouts. He now has four wins on the season. Jonathan Sanchez gave up one run over eight innings, striking out ten in a defeat of the Reds. You have to love those Ks. Manny Corpas was removed from the closer role in favor of Brian Fuentes. In Corpas’ second appearance after the demotion he took a loss against the Dodgers. Brad Lidge and Troy Percival each picked up four saves this week. It will be interesting to see if either of those two will remain either healthy or effective all season.

Fantasy Expert League Update:
We are continuing our ascent in the GOTOS expert league. We are still in 6th but we’ve gained 9.0 more points putting us at 75.5. David from Baseball Happenings is currently in the lead with 87.0 points. This week we made a couple of roster moves, acquiring Frank Thomas and Jarrod Saltalamacchia of the free agent list and shedding ties with Mark Prior and Jack Cust in the process. Although we like Prior to have a nice second half, he was expendable in this league because there are no available DL spots.

Transient Power

2008-04-25T22:38:00.004-04:00

On Wednesday we took a look at some pitchers whose HR/F ratios were inordinately high (the pitchers are unlucky). Today we will look at some hitters who sport a higher than usual (for them) HR/F ratio. These hitters have been lucky with the long ball to date and owners can expect to see that power tail off a bit in the months ahead.

Hanley Ramirez: Hanley leads the majors in HR/F rate (minimum 50 PA) to the tune of a 31.60% ratio. This simply can not be sustained. He already has 7 HRs on the year despite hitting ground balls 49.3% of the time. To put it in perspective, in 2007 he sported a 13.20% HR/F rate and in 2006 it was 10.20%. Once his fly balls start being caught for outs at a more normal rate his power numbers will come back to earth a bit. I know this hot start with the bat has his owners salivating at the thought of a 40/40 season, but my guess is that he only makes a modest improvement over last year's power numbers; maybe to 32 HRs.

Casey Kotchman: Kotchman has had a nice start to the season with 6 HRs. The problem is that he has a GB% of 54.80% and he is getting lucky with his fly balls (27.00% HR/F). In the past two seasons Kotchman has not had a HR/F rate above 9.00%. Maybe this hot start gets him to 20 HRs, but I do not see 25. Most people projected him to fall in the 15-20 HR range in the pre-season, so it looks like he might end up in the upper end of that range. Try to sell high if you can.

Josh Willingham: Willingham has power. He has hit 20+ HRs each of the past two seasons and he already has 6 in 2008. He does however have an inflated HR/F rate of 24.90%. His previous high in the category was back in 2006 when he finished with a 16.80% HR/F rate. The power will slow down but Willingham looks like he can challenge his career high of 26 HRs.

Gary Matthews, Jr.: Mr. Matthews has a 24.00% HR/F rate to start the year and 4 HRs. Over the past three seasons he has averaged roughly a 12.00% HR/F rate. This pop won't last, especially given that he is hitting ground balls in more than 58.00% of his at-bats.

Yunel Escobar: Esco has a 61.00% GB rate and a 19.80% HR/F rate. His three HRs to date are somewhat of a mirage. Many people are looking for 15+ jacks from him this year. This just does not seem possible given that he hits ground balls at such a high rate. In 2007 he had a 56.00% GB rate and a 7.90% HR/F rate. Sell high if someone is willing to bite, otherwise just enjoy the lucky long balls while they last.

Whiffable

2008-04-24T18:58:00.005-04:00

An obvious factor when looking for an advantageous matchup for a pitcher is an opponents ability to generate runs. An often overlooked factor is an opponents propensity to swing and miss. These teams are a good target for fantasy owners to exploit with their spot starters.

Lets take a look at the strikeout prone teams to date. All of the following statistics can be found at Baseball-Reference.

Teams with the Most Strikeouts
Florida Marlins 185
San Diego Padres 183
Colorado Rockies 168
San Francisco Giants 166
Milwaukee Brewers 162

Most Strikeouts vs. RHP
San Diego Padres 143
San Francisco Giants 132
Colorado Rockies 130
Boston Red Sox 124
Texas Rangers 122

Most Strikeouts vs. LHP
Florida Marlins 65
Tampa Bay Rays 56
Philadelphia Phillies 54
Oakland Athletics 52
Kansas City Royals 47
New York Mets 47

Grading Catchers

2008-04-24T12:38:00.005-04:00

Many owners eschew the top catchers on draft day and instead opt for whoever is left at the end of the draft. Depending on the league set-up, this can be a very profitable strategy. In order to make it profitable though an owner must make sure that he either catches lightning in a bottle with his/her draft choice or must troll the waiver wire to ride the current hot hands.

With that said, let's take a look at the top 12 catchers through yesterday's games. We will rank them using their GPA's (if you are unfamiliar with this term see our previous post on Gross Production Average). I used a 45 plate appearance cut-off for these rankings.

1) Geovany Soto .347
2) Ryan Doumit .312
3) J.R. Towles .301
4) Brian McCann .299
5) A.J. Pierzynski .297
6) Paul Bako .290
7) Jason Kendall .279
8) Jorge Posada .271
9) Russell Martin .269
10) Bengie Molina .268
11) Mike Napoli .267
12) Victor Martinez .266

There are a few things of note here. First off, the two hottest rookie catching prospects on draft day, Soto and Towles, are living up to the hype so far. Soto's price tag was generally high but he is currently earning it. Towles value dropped a little in March due to a nagging hamstring injury but he is looking like he was worth the gamble.

Ryan Doumit was a suggested waiver wire pick-up after week one. He has continued to hit well and has taken over the clean-up spot in the Pirates order. If he is still somehow available I would definitely take the plunge.

Another interesting note is the fact that the consensus top 2 catchers heading into the season are rated 9th and 12th on this list. Now, I'm sure that they'll surge past Jason Kendall any day now, but it does show that using high draft picks on catchers is usually not fruitful. And have you noticed who is not on the list? That's right, Joe Mauer. He is currently sporting a .240 GPA. He will certainly end the year amongst the top 12 catchers (barring injury), but he hasn't really gotten going yet.

Stream Team, Week 4

2008-04-24T00:37:00.020-04:00

Every week we’ll take a look at less-heralded starting pitchers that have favorable weekend match-ups.

As we do every week, let’s take a look at which pitchers may be able to help you in the pitching categories this weekend.

Friday, April 25
Mark Buehrle: He is facing the Orioles at home on Friday. The players on the current Oriole roster have been held to just 29 hits in 142 total ABs against Buehrle (.204 AVG). He has gone 7 innings in this last 3 starts with a quality start in two of those outings.

Saturday, April 26
Luke Hochevar: This is purely a strikeout play. He faces the Blue Jays at home on Saturday. Hochevar was recently called up and he had a rough outing against the A’s, lasting only 4.2 innings and giving up 6 runs on 9 hits. He did however strike out 5 in those 4.2 innings. If your ratios are locked up for the week and you are trailing in Ks, you could do worse than Luke.

Sunday, April 27
John Lannan: Here’s another stikeout play. Lannan struck out 11 Mets over 6 innings in his second to last start. On Tuesday he held the Braves scoreless over 7 innings to pick up his first win of the season. Facing the strikeout prone Marlins on Sunday, Lannan is in line for a nice fantasy day.

Last week’s results: 1-1-1
Todd Wellemeyer: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 6 Baserunners

Wandy Rodriguez: ND, 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 K, 8 BR (left game with injury – I’m calling this one a draw)

Nate Robertson: L, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 9 BR (I originally thought that he was pitching against Marcum. If I had known that he was facing Burnett I might have gone a different route)

Unlucky with the Long Ball

2008-04-23T23:51:00.009-04:00

In order for a ball to leave the yard it must be hit in the air. Historically, the percentage of flyballs that end up as home runs comes in around 11%. If a pitcher’s HR/F ratio is much higher it is a result of poor luck. That logic does not hold true for hitters, as some of them can maintain higher than average HR/F rates.

Over the last few years the unluckiest pitchers when it comes to HR/F have clocked in with ratios between 18% and 21%. Looking at the data for the first few weeks of this season shows 5 pitchers with a ratio higher than 24%. The follwoing pitchers have been particularly unlucky with the long ball this season. (All of the following stats can be found at The Hardball Times)

Scott Baker: Baker currently sports a HR/F rate of 32.3%. He has given up 6 HRs in just under 26 innings. He certainly has been a victim of poor luck, but his peripherals have been largely unaffected. Baker sports a 3.51 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Couple that with 20 Ks to 4 BB and you have yourself a nice pitcher for any staff. The HR/F will regress towards the average, but I can’t see it having an affect on Scott’s peripherals.

Todd Wellemeyer: Wellemeyer’s 27.9% HR/F ranks him the second unluckiest in the category. He is another guy, however, that seems to be immune to the long ball affecting his performance. He has given up 5 HRs in 25 IP. He also has a 3.24 ERA with 26 Ks and a 1.08 WHIP. I would also not expect a positive effect on Todd’s peripherals as a result of his impeding HR/F rate correction.

Roy Oswalt: Oswalt owners were nervous about their ace after a shaky start to the season. He has given up 7 HRs in 30 IP and he rocks a 26.8% HR/F rate. Here is a case where his misfortune in the flyball department may lead to improved peripherals in the future. Roy currently has an ugly 6.00 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. Once his HR/F rate normalizes I’d expect those two ratios to follow suit.

Jeff Francis: Francis, who has a 24.7% HR/F rate, has given up 7 long balls this year. Jeff’s HR/F rate has been under 10% the past two years and its eventual regression will hopefully affect his unsightly peripherals (ERA 5.68, WHIP 1.46).

Bronson Arroyo: Arroyo has maintained a HR/F rate of about 10% over the last four seasons. His 2008 HR/F rate sits at 24.6%. He has given up 6 HRs in only 21.33 IP. As a result his ERA is well north of 5.00 and his WHIP is a disgusting 1.64. Hopefully his luck will even out sooner than later or else that HR total will double before you know it considering his home ball park.

On the 7th Day.....

2008-04-23T21:02:00.006-04:00

It's a situation we've all faced as fantasy baseball owners.....going against an opponent in a weekly league that seems to have every one of his pitchers getting two starts. It's cyclical, of course, and there will be weeks where you are the one reaping the benefits from 2 start pitchers. But, should a league have the potential to be determined by something that is so random? Is there a solution?

We've run the problem through our Pseudo computer and have come up with a simple, yet effective answer. A ten day scoring period. Forgetting the logistics of the idea (CBS, Yahoo, ESPN and other online hosts don't have the ability to facilitate this), a ten day fantasy period makes sense for a lot of reasons. None more than the fact that every pitcher should get exactly two starts in any given ten day window. Possibly less, but rarely will a pitcher ever get more. Most teams do whatever they can to make sure that their best pitchers throw every 5 days, regardless of off days or rainouts.

If you break down a fantasy roster and any scoring structure, it's weighted so that equal value is given to hitters and pitchers. This is true for either categories or points leagues. With that being said, would it be fair for Alex Rodriguez to get 13 games in one scoring period? The notion that a pitcher could essentially double his value for no other reason than pure luck completely skews the balance of any scoring structure.

So join us in the revolution and challenge the status quo. Together, we can make a difference.

The Banana Stand - Week 3

2008-04-21T11:37:00.015-04:00

The Banana Stand is a weekly look back at the fantasy week that was.

Week 3 of the fantasy season is dedicated to injured fantasy stars. The Week started with Alfonso Soriano landing on the DL with a strained right calf in Tuesday night's game, and there was no looking back. Stud players were dropping like flies, and nobody was safe. Elite fantasy 3rd basemen Chipper Jones and Alex Rodriguez both suffered quad injuries yesterday. Chipper's injury came in a week in which he scorched opposing pitchers with a ridiculous line of .565 4 HRs & 7 RBIs. Jones is proving once again that when he plays, he is a top producer. The upcoming week has the potential to be a frustrating one for Jones' owners because how much time he will miss is still up in the air. These injuries will probably result in at least a few games missed for both - and if history is any indication, a DL stint for Chipper.

Sunday's injuries came around the same time we learned that the Phillies finally decided to put MVP Jimmy Rollins on the DL after he injured his ankle in the first game of the season. Peculiar, because they'd been using him as a pinch-hitter for the past week, so he has to miss the full 15 days (starting with yesterday). It is a blow for fantasy purposes, but at least owners don't have to guess with their lineups because Rollins is definitely out. Hopefully, a full 15 days off will get him back to full health and he can finally start producing.

Ben Sheets, another injury-prone star in the same class as Chipper Jones, also suffered an injury this past week. Sheets has been stellar so far (and usually is when he can stay healthy) going 3-0 with 24 Ks and a 0.96 in 4 starts this year. Sheets' triceps tightened up in his last start and it looks like he'll have to miss his next start. It remains to be seen whether or not he'll land on the DL, but expect the Brewers to be careful in the early going with any Sheets injury.

With all of these injuries mounting, it provides excellent opportunities for astute fantasy owners to take advantage of other league members' weaknesses in their time of need. Anyone who loaded up on depth on draft day can certainly start looking to deal some of it to anyone scrambling to piece together a healthy starting lineup.

Fantasy Expert League Update:
In the GOTOS expert league, team Pseudo Sports climbed up 2 spots this week to 6th overall. We now have a healthy Yovanni Gallardo and Randy Johnson, but an injured Jimmy Rollins. We're making our mark with pitching, scoring 44.5 out of a possible 60 points. But, with our top overall pick Rollins out, we're trying to hold our own in the offensive categories until he can return. Currently, Rudy from Razzball is in first with 88.5 points to our 66.5.

Chronic Tardiness?

2008-04-19T23:20:00.009-04:00

It's one of those things that just can't be explained - certain people are just traditionally slow starters in baseball. Three weeks into the season and there are many concerned owners out there wondering if their team is filled with busts or just players who are showing up late to the party. Let's take a look at some big name guys who are off to a slow start and see if this is the norm for them or if there is genuine cause for concern.

Robinson Cano: So far, Cano is batting just .171 with 1 HR and 5 RBIs. Many people projected Cano to be north of .315 20 and 100 this season after a spring in which he put up great numbers. So what should we make of Cano's terrible start? For one, the Yankee lineup as a whole has just not clicked yet. I say yet, because it will happen. Their first off day of the season is April 21st and they'll been on the road for most the month. Cano also has a history as an incredibly slow starter over his time in the majors. Conclusion - be patient with him. The Yankee lineup will click and Cano will be in a great position to match his projections of just a few weeks ago.

Ryan Howard: For many fantasy owners, this is a make or break year for Howard in that he needs to prove he is closer to the MVP of 2006 rather than the player he was last year when hit just .268 with 199 Ks. Granted, he still put up monster power numbers last year, but his .318 average in 2006 made him truly an elite fantasy player. As of today, Howard is hitting .197 with 4 HRs, 9 RBIs and 23 Ks. In leagues where you're penalized for Ks, it's to the point where owners are happy to take an 0-5 night from Howard as long as he doesn't strike out 3 times. What's to make of his slow start? It's beginning to look like Howard will never match his all around production from 2006, but there's no reason to think that he won't hit 40 HRs and get to 100 RBIs, at the very least. But, he will continue his trend of establishing a new career high in strikeouts (and possibly even a league record). He's been a slow starter every year of his Major League career, and even needed an early season stint on the DL last year to turn him around.

David Ortiz: Ortiz has never battled early season slumps since joining the Red Sox in 2003. He currently posts a .134 average with a ridiculously low slugging percentage of .224. This even includes 5 games against the Yankees, who Ortiz usually brutalizes. Is the offseason knee surgery in which he had a tear in his meniscus repaired still a factor? For anyone who's seen his ABs this year, it certainly seems as if Ortiz just isn't right. Whether it's the knee or just an old-fashioned slump, we'll probably never know. Expect a significant dropoff in Ortiz's numbers this year. He won't be as bad as he is now for the rest of the year, but Ortiz suffered a hit to his power #s last year and I expect a similar trend this year as well.

CC Sabathia: The 27 year old lefty is the projected prize of the 2008 free agent season. Coming off his Cy Young year last year, Sabathia firmly entrenched himself as a bona fide stud. However, after 4 starts this year, Sabathia has no wins and a 13.50 ERA. He hasn't lost anything from his velocity - his problems seem to be with his control. Last year, in 241 innings, Sabathia issued just 37 walks. So far, in his 18 innings pitched, he's already walked 14. So the question is...are Sabathia's problems physical or mental? Is the pressure of his impending free agency too much for him to deal with? It's hard to imagine him not being able to pull it together and make a run at a huge offseason payout. His career numbers don't indicate anything otherwise. Buy low if at all possible.

Gambling with (Former) Aces

2008-04-19T14:45:00.005-04:00

Both Chris Carpenter and Mark Prior have been on the shelf this season. Carpenter hasn't pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. Prior hasn't pitched since undergoing shoulder surgery back in March of 2007. Are either worth a roster spot? The answer depends on a variety of factors, some of which include league size/depth, roster size, DL spot flexibility, etc.

Carpenter threw a bullpen session yesterday and is ready to face hitters. The Cardinals are hoping for him to make his season debut around the all-star break, but he likely won't pitch before late July. That would put him at the 12 month mark following the TJ surgery, which is the low-end for pitchers returning to the mound. As seen with Liriano this year, a pitcher returning from TJ surgery is likely to struggle with his command at the outset. Given that Carpenter is likely to only make about 10 to 12 starts, he probably will not be worth starting in 12 team mixed leagues.

Prior has thrown bullpen sessions and is expected to pitch in a simulated game within the next two weeks. Prior is currently on the 60-day DL and can not return to action prior to late May. In all likelihood he probably won't return before mid June. Given that Prior has the chance to make 15+ starts this year, and the fact that he calls Petco home, means he should be grabbed and stashed in all but the shallowest leagues. There are certainly questions about how effective he will be following the shoulder surgery. If he struggles out of the gate then he certainly will be droppable in 10 team mixed leagues. However, the upside is certainly worth gambling on. I currently own Prior in my three leagues that allow DL spots.

High and Dry

2008-04-18T00:14:00.007-04:00

A useful metric to use when analyzing pitcher performance is strand rate (or LOB%). Strand Rate is the percentage of runners that reach base and do not cross home plate. The average starting pitcher’s strand rate is usually around 70%-72%. There is some debate on whether or not strand rate is a matter of luck or if it is a repeatable skill, but it is clear that good pitchers tend to maintain higher than average strand rates.

Strand Rate = (Hits + BB + HBP - R)/((Hits+ BB + HBP -(1.4 * HR))

Early in the year it is difficult to draw too many conclusions about strand rates. For example, Zach Greinke’s strand rate through his first 3 starts is 97.1%. That number will come down but it doesn’t mean that Greinke is due to get rocked.

We can, however, gain a little bit of information by looking at pitchers that have a poor strand rate through their first few starts. The pitchers listed below will likely see improvement in their ERAs because base runners will soon start to be left high and dry at a greater clip. You might be able to pry a few of them from their panicky owners at less than face value.

The statistics next to each pitcher are their 2008 LOB%, their career LOB%, and their 2008 ERAs.

Justin Verlander 35.1% vs. 75.9%, 6.52
A.J. Burnett 60.3% vs. 71.5%, 7.27
Johnny Cueto 62.5% vs. N/A, 3.22
James Shields 62.5% vs. 72.1%, 3.52
Tim Hudson 63.1% vs. 73.3%, 3.38
Gil Meche 65.1% vs. 71.6%, 6.08
Roy Oswalt 65.6% vs. 76.9%, 6.65
Ian Snell 66.5% vs. 73.3%, 3.93

The numbers above tell different stories for each pitcher. It should be clear that Verlander, Burnett, Meche and Oswalt have been a little unlucky with their base runners. If their respective strand rates improve to just the league average they will each see sizeable improvements in their ERAs. All of the above look like buy low candidates based on this metric. Note: My pre-season AL CY Young pick, A.J. Burnett, is looking like a long shot right now. However, I fully expect his ERA to take a dramatic turn south in the next month, and his current strand rate is one reason why.

Johnny Cueto is an interesting case because he is a rookie. Most people would expect Cueto to go through some rough stretches ahead, therefore it is difficult to suggest his already fine ERA will improve due to an increase in strand rate. We’ll have to wait and see how Johnny C’s strand rate fluctuates and how that affects his ERA. It may turn out that he is they type of pitcher that maintains merely a league average strand rate.

Shields, Hudson, and Snell all have respectable ERAs right now, despite the fact that each of them is sporting a LOB% roughly 7 - 10 percentage points lower than expected. Their ERAs are good enough such that their owners will probably not part with them for less than face value. If you own them, enjoy the correction that will be coming shortly in your favor.

We’ll revisit these arms next month to see how their ERAs look as their strand rates move closer to their expected ranges.

Stream Team

2008-04-16T21:48:00.012-04:00

Every week we’ll take a look at less-heralded starting pitchers that have favorable weekend match-ups.

A common strategy in H2H daily transaction leagues is to break up the pitching week into two parts: Monday – Thursday and Friday – Sunday. Over the first part of the week you throw your SP’s out there (match-up permitting) and you see how they fare. On Thursday you assess your ratios, Wins and K’s. If it looks like you are trailing in the counting stats and have leeway with the ratios (either because you are hopelessly behind or you have a sizeable lead) then you go ahead and look for the best scrub SP on the wire and start him on the weekend. You drop that scrub the next day and pick up another scrub.

Our aim with this column is to show you which SP are worth streaming for their weekend starts. Let’s get right to it.

Friday, April 18
Todd Wellemeyer: He is home against the Giants, facing off against Matt Cain. This is a rematch from last Saturday. Wellemeyer actually gave up 5 ER in that game, but he struck out 7 in 6.0 innings. The problem was the long ball, as he gave up two HRs, one of which was to Cain. I’m sure he’ll pitch Matt a little more carefully this time around. And if Wellemeyer can strike out a batter per inning then he will surely help you accumulate those Ks.

Saturday, April 19
Wandy Rodriguez: The legend of Way-Rod has grown stronger over his first few home starts of the year (1 ER allowed in 14.1 innings with 13 strike outs). He is home against the Rockies and starter Aaron Cook. There is not much analysis to do here: You simply must start Wandy at home. In fact, I recommend you hold on to him for the season (league depth permitting) and start him in every game he pitches at Houston.

Sunday, April 20
Nate Robertson: Robertson faces off against Shawn Marcum and the Blue Jays in Toronto. In 2007 Robertson went 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 9 strikeouts in 12.2 innings against the Jays. The Tigers offense is coming around so Nate’s chances of picking up a W are better now than they were at the start of the year. Robertson did experience some tightness in his left lat muscle during his Tuesday start but it is not supposed to be a problem going forward.

Most Added & Dropped

2008-04-16T13:49:00.010-04:00

We're two plus weeks into the season & reactionary fantasy owners across the land have made their mark. Below is CBS' top 5 list of players added & dropped the most this past week. As with any set of data, this information needs to be digested with a grain of salt. Especially because this list encompasses all CBS leagues in any format, meaning that any given league can place additional value to players not necessarily worth it, and vice versa. Also, we can't filter out the uninformed fantasy player's moves from this information. As we've mentioned in a few prior articles, this early in the season, stats for pitchers are more telling - and the results below are indicative of this as well.

MOST ADDED
1. Jackson, Edwin SP TB - 14% owned to 61%: Jackson's first 2 starts against the Yankees & Mariners were impressive, to say the least. He surrendered just 1 run in 14 innings while striking out 10. Jackson has always been on the verge of breaking through as a reliable fantasy option, so it is more than understandable if AL-only leaguers & mixed leaguers alike took a chance on him. However, Jackson's 2nd shot at the Yankees wasn't pretty & I would imagine we'll see him somewhere on the most dropped list in the near future.

2. Lee, Cliff SP CLE - 30% owned to 66%: Lee has shown glimpses of returning to his reliable fantasy starter form so far this season. His inability to stay healthy the past couple of years were a major deterrant on draft day, but he certainly looks worthy of a roster spot for now & even a spot in your starting lineup, if he can stay healthy.

3. Johnson, Randy SP ARI - 48% owned to 83%: Maybe people just wanted to see him actually pitch in a major league game before picking him up? There's really no way that RJ should have been a free agent in any league. When he does pitch, he is still one of the most effective pitchers in baseball and is worth a roster spot (especially in daily leagues or leagues with a DL slot).

4. Crede, Joe 3B CHW - 50% owned to 83%: Crede's terrible spring & Josh Fields' presence no doubt scared people away early on. However, he's been one of the hottest hitters in the AL and is worth riding until he cools off.

5. Ryan, B.J. RP TOR- 41% owned to 74%: Somewhat of a surpirse that people would give up on Ryan so quickly after another injury. The fact is though, when healthy, the saves in Toronto go through him.

MOST DROPPED
1. Harden, Rich SP OAK - 96% owned to 54%: Every year, people fall for Harden and his potential. And every year, Harden lands on the DL. After his first 2 starts against the Red Sox, he looked like he was ready to finally put together a string of healthy starts. Not the case as he landed back on the DL, frustrating owners everywhere. I still think if you have room to stash him away that Harden can be a positive contributor this year. Reports over the winter indicated that Oakland was not going to baby him as much with his injuries, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

2. Soriano, Rafael RP ATL - 89% owned to 47%: Similar to Harden, Soriano's injury history & the Braves peculiar handling of him in the past are no doubt behind this trend. It would be hard to fault owners in shallow leagues who have cut ties with Soriano already.

3. Lowell, Mike 3B BOS - 96% owned to 55%: The extent of Lowell's injury and exactly how much time he will miss have yet to be determined. However, it appears that most owners did not want to stash him away and wait this one out. I wasn't high on Lowell to begin with this year since he was coming off a career year fueled by aspirations of a new contract, so I can't blame anyone who let him go. Especially considering that he could be out for a couple of months.

4. Willis, Dontrelle SP DET - 94% owned to 58%: The D-Train (can we still call him that?) has been a disaster all around for Detroit. Combine that with his freak injury and all signs point to this being a completely lost season for him. I find it hard to believe that he's still owned on 58% of people's rosters.

5. Garza, Matt SP TB - 57% owned to 24%: The dreaded radial nerve irritation led half of Garza's owners to cut ties with him. He'll have to prove himself after he returns from the DL to be in consideration for another pickup.

Predictions for the next 2 weeks:
Most Added - Mike Cameron, Evan Longoria
Most Dropped - Joe Borowski, Barry Zito

Making the Grade - NL

2008-04-15T19:45:00.003-04:00

As mentioned in an earlier post, I will periodically review the GPA leaders in each league throughout the season. Today we will take a look at the NL leaders through yesterday’s games.

As a reference point, here are last year’s leaders in the category (statistics can be found at The Hardball Times:

National League 2007
Chipper Jones .346
Albert Pujols .342
Miguel Cabrera .331
David Wright .331
Prince Fielder .329
Hanley Ramirez .324
Chase Utley .317
Ryan Howard .313
Adrian Gonzalez .306
Dmitri Young .305

The only surprise on the above list is Dmitri Young, but he did have a very productive season last year. This year’s leaders through April 14th are listed below, along with their 2007 and 2006 GPAs.

National League 2008 2007 2006
Albert Pujols .427 .342 .365
Pat Burrell .405 .296 .293
Hanley Ramirez .387 .324 .294
Rafael Furcal .372 .243 .284
Nate McLouth .364 .275 .225
Lance Berkman .354 .301 .344
Justin Upton .354 .208 N/A
James Loney .349 .312 .301
Chipper Jones .346 .346 .336
Derrek Lee .346 .299 .277

The names that appear on both the 2008 and 2007 lists (Pujols, Ramirez, Chipper) will likely remain there all season.

Pat Burrell is off to a tremendous start. If you buy into the contract year theory then this spike in production doesn’t surprise you. Pat’s bat will likely slow down as the season progresses but I wouldn’t be surprised if his GPA finishes the year north of .300.

James Loney has provided quality production in his first few seasons. If he can maintain his current production level (unlikely) he’ll move into the discussion of 2nd tier mixed-league first basemen next year.

Derrek Lee should regress to a .290-.300 range GPA. His 2006 GPA is low because of injury. Furcal had an off year in 2007, but he is certainly more of a .285 player as opposed to his current level of .372.

These next two players have been hot names to start the year. Justin Upton already has 5 HRs and hits in the heart of a young, productive lineup. Most owners felt that Upton would have an OK year, with his eventual breakout scheduled for 2010. His fast start is making many people second guess their initial projections. I fully expect his power to slow down, his legs to speed up, and his GPA to end up in the .290 range. Upton will be an interesting case to follow as his sample size of ABs increases.

Now everybody’s favorite OF sleeper, Nate McLouth, has made his owners smile thus far, as he’s hit safely in all 13 games this year. He is finally getting regular ABs and it will be fun to watch how he holds up over six months of full time work. With that said, McLouth’s current hit streak is likely to end soon and pitchers will start to figure him out. He does, however, possess a good eye at the plate and he takes a lot of pitches. This will help him get on base at a good clip and in turn keep his GPA up.

Again, this sample size is almost useless. But now we have a base for which to work off of as the season moves along.

Making the Grade - AL

2008-04-14T23:41:00.004-04:00

Throughout the season I will take a look at the GPA leaders in each league. For the uninitiated, GPA stands for Gross Production Average, a measure of a player’s OBP and SLG% that is more useful than the standard OPS calculation. It is more useful primarily for two reasons: it gives more weight to OBP and it is shown on a scale comparable to batting average. The formula for GPA is simple:

Gross Production Average (GPA) = ((OBP*1.8) + SLG) / 4

For more on the subject you should check out this link, where GPA creator Aaron Gleeman provides his explanation for its origination.

As a reference point, here are last year’s leaders in the category (statistics can be found at The Hardball Times:

American League 2007
Alex Rodriguez .355
Magglio Ordonez .351
Carlos Pena .348
David Ortiz .342
Jorge Posada .331
Vladimir Guerrero .325
Jack Cust .319
Jim Thome .316
B.J. Upton .307
Curtis Granderson .306

Those names should look familiar, as they all had excellent seasons. Let’s take a look at this year’s top ten through the first two weeks of the season. To provide more flavor I have also listed each player’s GPA from the previous two seasons.

American League 2008 2007 2006
Raul Ibanez .394 .289 .302
A.J. Pierzynski .375 .233 .254
Carlos Guillen .362 .292 .318
Chone Figgins .355 .291 .254
Luke Scott .354 .284 .347
Casey Kotchman .348 .290 .159
Joe Crede .343 .190 .267
Nick Markakis .339 .287 .275
Ryan Garko .339 .288 .284
Carlos Pena .330 .348 .258

The only name that appears on both the 2007 and 2008 lists is Carlos Pena. He is showing in the early stages of the season that his power output last year was not a fluke. It will be interesting to track his progress as the season moves along to see if he can remain in the top ten.

Players such as Ibanez, Guillen, Markakis and Garko are off to great starts but their GPA’s will likely regress to their respective career norms over the next few months. Luke Scott is an interesting case, as this is the first year where he is getting a full slate of plate appearances. If he can maintain a .300+ GPA he will end up being one of the best end game OF picks of the year.

Joe Crede’s hot start has kept Josh Fields in the minors so far, but I don’t expect that to last all season. Even in Crede’s big counting stat year (2006 when he went 30-94) he still only had a .267 GPA. He slugged .506 that year but he had a paltry .326 OBP. Unless he can keep up his rate of one grand slam per week, he won’t be on this list for long.

Pierzynski has shown no history of being able to sustain top level production and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t even sniff this list next time out. Figgins is another interesting case. He gets on base at a good clip but he has no power. My guess is that he finishes the year in the neighborhood of a .280 GPA. That would place him in the OK range.

I’ll go through the NL leaders next time.

The Banana Stand - Week 2

2008-04-13T23:19:00.007-04:00

The Banana Stand is a weekly look back at the fantasy week that was.

Week two of the 2008 fantasy year was full of everything: great pitching performances (Wang, Sheets, Hamels), great hitting performances (Francoeur, J. Upton, Burrell), and Rich Harden’s annual DL stint. We saw some young arms follow up on their impressive debuts and we also saw some big bats continue to struggle – I’m looking right at you Papi (3 for 43). To top it all off, Johan the Great dropped his second straight decision, giving up three HRs to the Brew Crew.

In the power department, Carlos Pena is alone at the top of the HR list with six bombs on the year, four of them hit this week. He is on a mission to validate last year’s stats. Another four homer week came courtesy of Raul Ibanez who now has five on the year. Will this be the year he tops 35 HRs? I’ll take the under. Jeremy Hermida came off the DL and four games later has two doubles and two homers. Hermida came at a discount this year and his owners are reaping the benefits in his first week of action.

Chone Figgins and Joey Gathright lapped all of the speedsters this week, swiping 4 bags each. Michael Bourn, who had 6 steals through April 7th, hasn’t added to that total since. You were warned.

As Mike mentioned in the week 1 installment, pitching stats are more telling than hitting stats in the early goings. Cueto followed up his fabulous debut with one strong and one less strong outing. Johnny will have his ups and downs but he is a must start in all formats. Parra struggled against the Mets and Volquez didn’t allow any runs against the Pirates but wasn’t involved in the decision. Both of these young pitchers will finish 2008 with nice seasons, but for now neither is a must start. In fact, it may be wise to take a wait and see approach with Parra before plugging him into your rotation. With Volquez you will be better off playing the matchups. Week 3 is a tough call: he’s on the road against a good hitting Cubs team, but he is set to duel a struggling Ted Lilly. I will be rolling the dice on Edinson this week.

As for the more veteran arms, Chien-Ming Wang threw a CG two hitter against the Red Sox on Friday night. Livan Hernandez improved to 3-0 by blanking the Royals over 7 innings in a bid to become fantasy relevant. Ben Sheets was on the other end of Santana’s homer fest as he beat the Mets to improve to 2-0. If he can stay relatively healthy (no more than one 15 day DL stint) he will make a strong case to be in the top pitcher discussion at the end of the year.

League Updates
Here's how Mike and I fared in week 2:

7x7 League: My bats woke up over the weekend, propelling me to a 9-5 victory. I am now at the top of the standings. Mike battled a strong team and they called it a draw, each winning 7 categories. Mike is in 3rd place.

NL Only League: Mike and I went head to head this week, Pseudo Sports style. We both put up big points, but he could not overcome the power of Wandy. I took this tilt with a score of 302.42 to Mike’s 264.25. I am now 2-0 and I have the overall points lead. Mike falls to 1-1.

GOTS Expert League: We are still 8th out of 12 teams. It is way too early to make any adjustments. Our bats had a nice day Sunday so hopefully that will be the start of a positive trend. Our 14th round pick, Evan Longoria, got the call up this weekend and we are excited to see what he’ll bring to the table.

Domestic Disturbance at Pseudo Sports

2008-04-13T21:12:00.005-04:00

It's an unfortunate inevitability, but because Chris & I are in 2 head to head leagues, we will have to face off against one another more than a few times this year. Week 2 was our first showdown, & it came in our NL only points league. We've agreed that for the rest of the year, the loser in our head to head battles will have to write a recap of the week.....just to add to the pain.

We each came in at 1-0. Chris was dominant in victory in week 1 while I put together an average week that was good enough for a W. There were some lineup decisions to be made Monday morning. I had to choose 3 from my stable of corner infielders - Ryan Howard, Aramis Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Nick Johnson & James Loney (1B, 3B & a CI). It's too early for me to skew much from my draft day team & I certainly didn't want to overreact to Howard's mediocre week 1. So, I went with Howard, A-Ram & Loney, leaving Reynolds & Johnson on the bench. After Reynolds' fast start, I was regretting that decision. When it was all said and done, Reynolds ended up with 31 points to Loney's 23, so not all that bad of a decision. Chris had options for his last SP slot. He had Manny Parra with a tough matchup against the Mets or Wandy Rodriguez with 2 starts, both at home where he is significantly better. So Wandy got the call, which turned out to be the right choice for Chris.

Nobody really had tremendous offensive weeks for either of us. Pat Burrell was Chris' high scorer on offense while I had a fairly balanced attack led mostly by Bengie Molina. The battle came down to pitching, plain and simple. Heading into Friday night's games, I was within 10 points of him & we each had 3 starts left from our pitchers. He had starts from Peavy, Cueto & Wandy left & I had starts from Smoltz, Hamels & Chris Young coming. Peavy went first & was mediocre, at best. But, he was able to squeeze out the all important win and 17 points. Smoltz & Hamels were next & both were solid for me. They combined for nearly 50 points. At this point, I was up by 15 with Chris Young up next. This was the turning point of the week. Young was just awful when I needed a strong performance from him. The negative 10 points he put up was, in essence, a 35 point swing the wrong way for me (he put up 28 points in his week 1 start). This meant that I now needed clunkers from his remaining pitchers - Cueto & Wandy. I got one out of Cueto, as he proved that just maybe he is human, but Wandy's second solid performance of the week sealed my fate as the loser. Add to that a cheap win from Chris' closer Kerry Wood on Sunday, and I had no chance. I say "cheap" not because I'm bitter, but in this league wins are huge (10 points vs. 5 points for a save). So when a closer comes in and throws one inning or two and gets credit for the win, it's a nice surprise for their owner and a solid punch in the stomach to an opponent.

So the first showdown goes to Chris 302 to 264, but it's a long season. My team is now focused on revenge for our next battle. Stay tuned for HIS recap after the next time we face off.

Yovani, Unit Set to Return Soon

2008-04-11T11:42:00.004-04:00

The Brewers called up Yovani Gallardo on Wednesday night, but he might not be up for long. The plan is to have Gallardo on hand this weekend in case one of the Milwaukee pitchers has his start interrupted due to inclement weather. The Brewers may send Gallardo back down to AAA for a third rehab start before calling him up for good later on next week. This situation bears monitoring. If Gallardo gets a start next week it will be hard not to have him active. He is poised to have a top 20 SP season.

Randy Johnson is set to make his 2008 debut on Monday against the hapless Giants. This should be a nice way for the Unit to ease into the season. Although it is normally wise to watch a pitcher's first outing back from injury before inserting him into your lineup, this particular match-up is too good to miss. Johnson should be activated in all formats next week, as he is a two start pitcher (@SF and SD).

Dana Dazzles

2008-04-10T21:30:00.004-04:00

Dana Eveland built on his impressive first outing by blanking the Jays over 6 1/3 innings. He allowed three hits, three walks and struck out six. Eveland is a two-start pitcher next week. He is scheduled to pitch in Chicago against the White Sox on Tuesday and then he gets the Royals at home over the weekend. The Chicago match-up will be a tough one as they currently lead the majors in OPS. The Royals offense is not quite as potent. In daily mixed-leagues Eveland is certainly worth starting next weekend against the Royals. For AL-Only leagues, I would probably gamble on both of his starts.

Tigers Grab First Win

2008-04-09T22:58:00.003-04:00

The Detroit Tigers claimed their first victory of the season tonight knocking off the Red Sox in Fenway 7-2. The bottom half of the Detroit lineup did all of the damage, with Renterria, Thames and Inge each driving in two runs. Cabrera drove in the other run while none of the top four hitters crossed the plate. It is encouraging to see the much hyped Detroit offense put up a seven spot, but disconcerting that the likes of Polanco, Sheffield and Ordonez were not contributors to the effort.

Catching up on the Backstops

2008-04-08T20:41:00.006-04:00

A quick look at the Yahoo! Player Rater shows that there are 4 Catchers ranked safely in the overall top 100. They are the usual names: A.J. Pierzynski, Gerald Laird, Jason Kendall and Ryan Doumit. Guys like Victor Martinez and Russell Martin are sitting comfortably on the wrong side of the top 300. What does this tell us? Well, nothing actually. One week is a pretty worthless sample size. V-Mart and Russell will turn things around soon enough and Jason Kendall will give Ned Yost a different reason to bat him behind Jeff Suppan. But if you are in a league that only requires 1 starting Catcher, and you didn't spend/waste a high draft pick on the position, you might be able to catch lightning in a bottle and ride some hot bats.

Here are some interesting options likely to still be available in your one Catcher leagues:

Ryan Doumit: Entering the season Doumit was expected to back up Ronny Paulino. However, Doumit's hot start has put him on the better side of a righty/lefty platoon. He is 11/24 to start the year with five runs scored. He even got the start against a lefty on Monday.

Mike Napoli: Here's a guy who will end up with 15+ HRs and a sub .250 AVG. He has 2 HRs in 22 AB but he is already not making good contact. If you can live with the anemic AVG then he will reward you with good pop. In leagues that use OBP instead of AVG he is a top 10 Catcher.

Gerald Laird: Heading into the season many pundits were expecting Saltalamacchia to take over catching duties in Texas. With Salty in AAA Laird has started out hot: 5/16 with 2 HRs and 6 RBI. With regular playing time Laird should continue to show decent power down in Arlington, though his average might prove detrimental.

Kurt Suzuki: Suzuki appears to be seeing the ball well thus far. He is batting .375 and has a .423 OBP. Additionally, he has a SB and a CS, which shows that he will likely end up amongst the SB leaders at the position.

Jason Kendall: Smoke and Mirrors. That is all I can come up with when trying to figure out how Kendall is currently the hottest hitter in the NL. I can't with any good conscience recommend him beyond this current statistical anomaly. However, I just saw him rip two singles off of Johnny C, so there must be something to this stretch.

The Night Is Young

2008-04-08T17:40:00.002-04:00

Although there is a limited schedule on tap for tonight, there should be plenty of excitement generated by some young guns (Jason Isringhausen excluded). Expected to make starts tonight are Johnny Cueto, Chad Billingsley, Tim Lincecum & Jair Jurrjens.

For Cueto & Jurrjens, it will be interesting to see how they respond after their impressive first starts.

The Banana Stand - Week 1

2008-04-07T21:59:00.007-04:00

The Banana Stand is a weekly look back at the fantasy week that was.

Week one of the 2008 fantasy baseball season can best be described as the week of the pitcher. Specifically, it was a week for young, emerging flamethrowers. Johnny Cueto, Manny Parra, Edinson Volquez & Jair Jurrjens had mixed leaguers and disgruntled Yahoo! owners scrambling for the waiver wire. Then, there were the veterans. While the young guns were breaking through, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb & Johan Santana quietly did what everyone expected and others turned heads with glimpses of what's capable when healthy. Ben Sheets' CGSO on Sunday capped off an impressive week where he threw 15 1/3 innings while racking up 15 Ks. Rich Harden is 2 starts into the season and so far, he's been able to avoid the disabled list. In 2 starts against the Red Sox, he survived 11 innings giving up just 1 run while striking out 15. Going from good to bad, Barry Zito provided more proof that the GMs who signed Bobby Bonilla, Albert Belle & Ed Whitson have nothing on Brian Sabean.

On the offensive side - Xavier Nady showed that he is worth drafting every year if for nothing else than a week 1 start. Does anybody consistently start off a season hotter than Nady every year? Derrek Lee looks healthy again as he returned to his MVP form of 2005 with 3 quick HRs. The Diamondbacks are showing that they have a great young nucleus that is ready to perform now. Justin Upton, Chris Young & Mark Reynolds put up veteran numbers in week 1 with a combined 8 HRs and 13 RBIs in just 6 games. It will be interesting to see what happens when Chad Tracy returns from the DL. The way things are going for Arizona, there's no way he should bump the youngsters (Conor Jackson or Reynolds) out of the lineup.

Perhaps pitching was so much of the story in week 1 that there isn't much else to mention on the offensive side. Many hitters had solid weeks, but nobody really turned heads. Besides, right or wrong, a pitcher throwing up 2 good starts to begin the season means a lot more than an offensive player hitting a couple of HRs or batting over .400 in week one. Similarly, a pitcher getting rocked in his first couple of starts is a lot more concerning than a slumping hitter. It cuts both ways for pitchers but means a lot less for hitters, even though the sample size is larger. The important thing to take out of week 1 is that it's just one week. Don't overreact to established players exceeding or falling short of your preseason expectations. Be impressed, however, with rookies showing that they are ready to perform at this level. So much of a youngster breaking into the majors and sticking around is mental. Cueto, Parra & Volquez, while extremely talented, are all on relatively short leashes (Volquez & Parra more), so for them to go out and perform under that much pressure shows a lot. While it may be tempting, don't go out and trade Josh Beckett for Johnny Cueto just yet.

League Updates
Chris & I are both in a head to head 7x7 league, an NL only head to head points league & we share a team in the Greener on the Other Side Expert league. Here's how we fared in week 1:

7x7 League: We are both 1-0 so far. Chris dominated and won all 14 categories, while I went 12-1-1.

NL Only League: In a recurring theme, Chris had a dominant week riding the arms of Cueto, Peavy & Volquez. He put up the most points in the league & has already established a high mark for weekly points that will be tough to beat. I won as well, but in much less impressive fashion (Chris put up 347 points to my 261), but a win is a win. We face off, Pseudo Sports style, in week 2.

GOTS Expert League: After week 1, we are in a cluster right in the middle - 8th out of 12 teams. It's a bit early, so a good or bad day can move you significantly in either direction.

Volquez Impressive in First Start

2008-04-06T15:24:00.003-04:00

Edinson Volquez followed up his strong spring with a nice outing to begin his 2008 campaign. Against a tough Philadelphia lineup, Volquez gave up just 1 run in 5 1/3 innings while striking out 8. Volquez was cruising until the 6th when he got into trouble by giving up hits to Chase Utley & Pat Burrell. The Reds went to the bullpen and they were able to close out Volquez's line by allowing just one of his runners to score. He was consistently in the high 90s all game.

Smoltz Looks Good....Sort Of

2008-04-06T14:57:00.002-04:00

John Smoltz looked solid in his return from the DL today, tossing 5 shutout innings with 6 Ks against the Mets. Unfortunately, it looked like Smoltz's nagging shoulder might have tightened up after the 5th inning. It took him 78 pitches to get through 5, but he was getting a major league squeeze job early on.

Parra vs. Cueto

2008-04-06T01:24:00.003-04:00

Johnny C and Manny P are the two hottest pitching commodities in the NL. If you are in a Yahoo! league then you were scrambling to claim Cueto off of waivers this week. Even though Parra was already in the system he may have eluded some owners because he only had RP eligibility at the start of the season. In CBS leagues both of these pitchers were draftable so hopefully you took advantage before their stellar debuts. However, the question remains: Who will be the more valuable fantasy pitcher this year?

Let's examine this using both quantitative and qualitative data.

Ballpark: Cueto pitches in the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, which is one of best hitters parks in the majors. Parra pitches at Miller Park in Milwaukee which historically rates as a neutral park. Edge Parra.

Offense: Both the Brewers and the Reds have strong offenses. They each have a dominant power hitter anchoring the lineup (Fielder and Dunn) but the Milwaukee lineup runs a bit deeper. In 2007, the Brewers hit the most HRs (231) in the NL, scored the 5th most Runs (801), and had a team OPS of .785 (3rd in NL). The Reds hit204 HRs, scored 783 Runs, and had a team OPS of .772. Edge Parra.

Defense: Neither team boasts a stout defense. Usting FPCT (even though it is a poot measuring stick) Milwaukee has been below league average the past two seasons and Cincinnati has not been much better. Once Mike Cameron returns from his suspension the Brewers defense will improve. Edge Neither.

Bullpen: The Reds have the better closer (Cordero vs. Gagne) but the Brewers bullpen has a deeper stable of arms. Riske, Turnbow and Torres have all closed before and have strong K rates. Weathers filled in adequately as the Reds closer last season but he does not strike out too many batters. Jared Burton and Todd Coffey have good K rates but have been largely inconsistent thus far in their careers. Edge Parra.

Division: The Brewers and Reds are in the same division so this clearly is a draw. Edge Neither.

Job Security: Cueto earned his rotation spot with a dominant spring. The only way he could lose his spot is if he pitches himself out of it. Parra, on the other hand, could pitch brilliantly yet still lose his spot in the rotataion. Gallardo is due back later this month which will push one of the SPs to either the bullpen or AAA. The best option would be to move Dave Bush to the bullpen but they could just as easily send Parra down to the minors and have him fill in if someone gets hurt. Edge Cueto.

Minor league stats: In 2007 at 3 different levels Cueto had a 3.07 ERA and 170 strikeouts in 161 1/3 innings. Parra, at 2 different levels, had a combined 2.45 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 106 2/3 innings. This one is very close but I'm going to give the edge to Cueto. He had a beter K rate and did it over a greater number of innings. Edge Cueto.

Opening Day Starts: Cueto went 7 innings, struck out 10, and allowed one run on one hit while walking none. Parra went 5 1/3 innings, striking out 7 and allowed two runs on two hits and 3 walks. Edge Cueto.

Bottom line: You want both of these pitchers, even in 10 team mixed leagues. Cueto has received more hype but both pitchers should be equally outstanding this year.

Corner Store

2008-04-03T21:19:00.006-04:00

Let's take a look at some potential bargains that qualify at either 1B or 3B in Yahoo! leagues. These players were drafted in less than 10% of standard 12 team leagues.

Aubrey Huff: Huff has started the year 3/8 with a HR and 4 RBI. He has shown power in the past and has the potential for 20+ HRs. Hitting in the 5spot should give him a shot at decent RBI totals. Huff was drafted in only 5% of Yahoo! leagues and qualifies at both 1B & 3B.

Conor Jackson: Jackson was in the cleanup spot on opening day and manager Bob Melvin has stated that Jackson will stay there. That alone gives him enough value to be a viable CI for mixed leagues, yet he was only drafted in 5% of Yahoo! leagues. Jackson is currently battling a virus and will likely be on the bench through the weekend. As long as he comes back healthy he should be in store for plenty of RBI chances hitting in the middle of that young D'Backs lineup and has 15+ HR potential.

Brandon Inge: Inge became expendable when the Tigers acquired Miguel Cabrera. Fortunately for the Tigers, Inge has not yet been traded and has been able to fill in for the injured starters (Granderson and today Cabrera). Inge won't likely be starting every day next month unless he gets traded, but until then he will be an passable fantasy fill in. He is currently 3/9 with a HR and has generated 100% of the Tigures offensive output this year. Even though he is hitting at the bottom of the order he will still have plenty of chances to score some runs in that powerful lineup. He was only drafted in 2% of Yahoo! leagues.

Jeff Keppinger: This guy can hit. Not necessarily for much power, but when he plays he maintains a high contatct rate. He finished up the first series 5-10 with two walks and a stolen base. He is currently just filling in while Alex Gonzalez is on the disabled list, but you can ride his hot streak while it lasts. He should be good for a .315 AVG with little power or speed.

Pedro Feliz: Feliz is currently 3/12 with 2 RBI. Not a blistering start, but his lineup and home ballpark should help his HR and RBI totals. His AVG. is a killer, but if you have a cushion and are looking for some cheap pop you could do worse. Feliz was drafted in only 2% of Yahoo! leagues and has 20+ HR potential.

Santana Slays Road Demons

2008-04-03T17:19:00.003-04:00

Ervin Santana provided a Quality Start for the Angels today as they beat the Twins 5-4. Santana pitched 6 strong innings allowing 2 runs on 4 hits. He walked 2 and struck out 3. Many mixed-leaguers have been weary of Santana in general, only spot-starting him in favorable home matchups. If Santana can build on this performance he has the potential to become a near must-start every week regardless of venue.

Not so Fast.....

2008-04-02T09:48:00.002-04:00

While Michael Bourn has been catching everyone's eye with his impressive 3 steals in 2 games, it's important to remember who he is doing it against. The Padres, & in particular Jake Peavy & Chris Young, are easy targets for any base stealer worth their weight. Everyone may be projecting 75 SBs this year for him based on these first 2 games, but don't get caught up in the hype just yet. The most important aspect of his performance so far is that he has shown patience at the plate and was able to get on base against two of the NL's best pitchers.

Pedro Hit Hard, Leaves Game with Leg Injury

2008-04-01T20:48:00.012-04:00

After giving up 2 2-Run HRs in just 3 1/3 innings, Pedro Martinez left tonight's game against the Marlins with an apparent hamstring injury. This could lead to an earlier return for El Duque. Stay tuned......

2008 MLB Season Predictions

2008-04-01T10:22:00.003-04:00

Here are our predictions for the 2008 season. Let us know what you think.

Draft Inspection

2008-03-31T20:30:00.003-04:00

Last week one of our readers participated in a draft and he asked me to assess the results. The interesting element here is that I had provided him with a tiered cheat sheet and a game plan prior to draft day. This was the first time that I had done this for someone and I was interested to hear the results.

A little background is in order. The reader is a former astute fantasy baseball player. Over the years he has gravitated away from playing in multiple leagues and has given less time to player analysis. This year he did not do any research and it was up to me to bring him up to speed. This is important because I don't want to mislead you into thinking that I was working with a clean slate.

The league has an atypical setup. The rosters are shallow: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, Util, 4 SP, 3 RP, 5 bench and 2 DL spots. It is a H2H, daily roster change league and the scoring categories are as follows:

Offense: R, HR, RBI, SB, TB, K, OBP
Pitching: W, W%, K/9, IP, SV, ERA, WHIP

I provided him with an Excel file containing a tiered cheat sheet, an overall top 30, ADP values from ESPN, and a plan that included a general strategy and some notes about the cheat sheet. Here are the results:

C: Chris Snyder (20th round)
1B: Paul Konerko (12)
2B: B.J. Upton (3)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Miguel Tejada (8)
OF: Carl Crawford (2)
OF: Alfonso Soriano (4)
OF: Alex Rios (5)
Util: Corey Hart (7)
BN: Dustin Pedroia (18)
BN: Kevin Kouzmanoff (21)

SP: Cole Hamels (6)
SP: John Smoltz (10)
SP: Yovani Gallardo (13)
SP: James Shields (14)
RP: Billy Wagner (9)
RP: Francisco Cordero (11)
RP: Matt Capps (16)
BN: Adam Wainwright (15)
BN: Ted Lilly (17)
BN: Rand Johnson (19)

The reader took Miguel Cabrera with the number 7 pick, with Hanley Ramirez still on the board. This was by design. I feel that Hanley carries some risk heading into this season, and it’s a risk I would rather not take. I had him rated 8th overall and Cabrera 6th overall. On the way back Ryan Braun was still available, but he drafted Carl Crawford instead. His rationale was that he wanted to grab elite speed to balance out his selection of Cabrera in the first. I would have taken Braun here but Crawford is a fine pick.

BJ Upton is a STEAL in the 3rd round, let alone 27th overall. The average may drop into the .280 range but he will threaten 30/30 this season. I was able to land Upton this late in one league but I used a 2nd round pick on him in two other leagues.

This is where the confusion sets in for me: Alfonso Soriano is on the board 34 picks into the draft. Granted, strikeouts are a category and Soriano will accumulate 125+ this year. But a potential 40/40 hitter should not be around this late, and neither should Rios at 47th overall.

Pitchers apparently were flying off the board yet our loyal reader stuck to the plan and waited until Round 6 to grab his first arm. Cole Hamels should thrive in this scoring format, provided he has a healthy season. Corey Hart in the 7th round is incredible value (probably 4 rounds worth). Tejada in the 8th is solid, as is Wagner in the 9th.

Seven of the next eight picks were arms and all are at great values. The only pick that I would not have made in this sequence was Adam Wainwright. I am a little nervous about his innings jump last year (127 inning increase from 2006 to 2007). I probably would have taken Lilly at this spot and Dustin McGowan later on.

Pedroia and Kouzmanoff will probably not start too many games for this squad. I would probably drop Pedroia right away and grab Manny Parra (whom I know is still available). Kouzmanoff is in for a nice year but it would be impossible to start him over Hart in the Util spot or Cabrera at 3B. I would consider dropping him for another arm.

Part of the plan I devised revolved around the two DL spots. The reader correctly made sure to grab two guys that were DL bound (Gallardo and Johnson). This allowed him to pick up both Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez after the draft. I probably would have taken Parra over Volquez but that is just splitting hairs.

Overall this will be a top 3 team. Strikeouts (on the offensive side) are the only apparent weakness. Since I have a vested interest in this team’s performance I will be monitoring the progress all season. Hopefully this one will be a contender.

NL Only Auction League - Part II

2008-03-30T22:17:00.003-04:00

For all of us who’ve gone from having one fantasy team to someone who is in more leagues than we can keep track of, our first experience in fantasy sports will always be something memorable. Whether you were one of the trendsetters who were doing this when the commissioner had to tally up stats by hand every Sunday or you came to the party a bit later, one thing is for sure……. you are now hooked. My first fantasy league was an 8 team, NL only auction league. That league is still going strong with the same basic core of 8 owners that have made fantasy sports more than just a passing hobby. While the league has lost a few owners, we’ve added some passionate ones that have kept the competition at a nice level. Our draft was last Friday, and as expected with any auction draft, there were a few surprises.

Here are the basic rules – it’s a head to head points league with an extra OF, MI & CI slot. There’s a $330 salary cap that gets you 24 players. Included in this is 1 keeper from the prior year at the price you paid to acquire them ($1 for pickups and carry-over price in trades). We start 5 SPs, 1 RP & 1 P. The scoring structure is as follows:

Scoring for Batting Categories
1B – Singles 1 point
2B – Doubles 2 points
3B – Triples 3 points
BB - Walks (Batters) 1 point
CYC - Hitting for the Cycle 10 points
GSHR - Grand Slam Home Runs 4 points
HP - Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR - Home Runs 4 points
KO - Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
R – Runs 1 point
RBI - Runs Batted In 1 point
SB - Stolen Bases 1.25 points

Scoring for Pitching Categories
BBI - Walks Issued (Pitchers) -0.5 points
BS - Blown Saves -2 points
CG - Complete Games 5 points
ER - Earned Runs -1 point
HA - Hits Allowed -0.25 points
HB - Hit Batsmen -0.25 points
INN – Innings 1 point
K - Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1.25 points
L – Losses -5 points
NH - No-Hitters 10 points
PG - Perfect Games 15 points
QS - Quality Starts 2 points
S – Saves 5 points
SO – Shutouts 10 points
W – Wins 10 points

As Chris mentioned in his post-draft analysis, a hot pitcher can easily win a week for you with this point structure. The holy grail in this league is a CGSO, which can get you 40 or more points in a league where 280 is typically enough to win a week.

Going into an auction draft, the best strategy to have is to not have a strict strategy at all and to be flexible. Anything can happen & you have to make sure to adjust your budgets based on what’s taken place. It’s hard to let an opponent get someone you want, but there comes a time when you have to just let it go and move on to the next player. There’s so much psychology in an auction draft and reading your opponents can be just as important as knowing your stats.

On to the analysis. We all know the stats by now, so I’ll tackle this analysis from a salary cap perspective. To start, I had a tough choice with my keeper decision. I narrowed my choices to James Loney for $1 or Brandon Phillips for $25. I figured Phillips would go in the mid $30s while Loney would be had for something in the low $20s. Based on these projected inflation numbers, I decided to go with Loney. $1 down....$329 to go.

The first player to go in the draft was Prince Fielder for $45. People in this league tend to call out the big names first, so the dollar amounts for these players is sometimes skewed higher because people will spend a bit recklessly when they have their entire cap in front of them. However, just 3 players deep, someone called out Bengie Molina. I hate spending money on catchers. Especially this year in an NL only league. While everyone was saving their cash for the impact guys, I was happy to swoop in and grab Molina for $6. I would not have gone a dollar higher though.

The names you’d expect all went next and their prices were scary to me. I’m always reluctant to spend big early and it got me in trouble this year. 22 picks in and the only money I’d spent was $6 for Bengie Molina. There were only a few big names left – David Wright, Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday & Brandon Webb. I knew Wright would be too much for my budget (there are a few Met fans in the league) so at that point, I decided that I would not let all of those guys get past me and come out with at least one. Howard was called next & I ponied up $49 to get him. While I’m not a huge fan of him in this league, he should be a top 10 offensive player. His Ks are certainly a detriment, but his power numbers will more than make up for it. In his MVP year of 2006, he was the 5th best offensive player in the league. Last year, in his down year, he was 18th.

The next player I grabbed was Aramis Ramirez for $37. Again, I wasn’t necessarily targeting him, but when the bidding seemed to slow down around $35, I couldn’t resist. His production (should be 300-25-100) in a dangerous Cubs lineup makes him a $40 player. Having kept Loney, I had my 1B, 3B & CI slot already occupied with some big names.

As Chris pointed out in his analysis, there is a common misconception in this league that big power, big strikeout guys are not valuable because of the negative points for striking out. Simply put, that’s a narrow view on the stats and that logic will get you in trouble. I grabbed Adam Dunn next for $27 and was pretty happy about it. You can pretty much guarantee 40 HRs from Dunn and a ton of Ks. But, his 100+ walks a year balance out his high K rate. Dunn is about as low-risk as it gets in this league. He’s not going to be much better than last year (if he’s even better at all), but you know he’s not going to be much worse.

I tend to spend a lot on pitching in this league. Whether or not this works is still up for debate. But, I came in 2nd 2 years ago and won the league last year with this strategy, so I’m sticking with it. I had 5 big guys targeted that I was willing to spend on. They were Webb, Hamels, Chris Young, Brett Myers & John Smoltz. I knew Santana would go for over $50, & I wanted no part of that. Not that he won’t be worth it, but I just didn’t want to tie that much up in 1 pitcher. Webb went for $50, which was higher than I thought he’d go for. I assumed mid $40s would be where he’d go, but the owner who wanted him sort of tipped his hand that he was willing to break the bank and another astute league member seized the opportunity to bid him up. So that left me with the next 4 pitchers on my list. I set a budget of $100 to get 3 of them. Chris Young was the first of the group called, & I grabbed him for $30. Young can’t finish his own games, but his high K/9 rate combined with his home in a great pitcher’s park will provide me with an excellent start to my pitching staff. And for only $30.

Hamels was the next player called and I was willing to go up in the $40s to get him. Luckily, it didn’t get that far and he was mine for $39. I love how Hamels improved last year and built himself into a bona fide stud. He gets a lot of Ks and pitches on a team that will win a lot of games for him, even when he’s not on. Citizens Bank Park is somewhat of a detriment, but that he plays on one of the league’s best teams easily washes out that concern for me.

Continuing the spending spree, I dropped $10 on the next player called, Brad Lidge. You can’t win in this league without 2 reliable closers to run out there every week. There just isn’t enough depth at starting pitching to be able to get consistent production from 6 guys every week. Utilizing that flex pitching spot with a second closer gives you a much better chance to win. Lidge might not be the definition of “reliable,” but a new start in Philadelphia and a healthy year should set him up for a nice year. His spring training knee surgery does not seem to be an issue. Unfortunately, I have to bench him in week 1 since Philly seems to be cautious in handling his return.

I took a bit of a break, and waited to spend until John Smoltz was called out 15 picks after Lidge. I was already $69 into my budget of $100 for my top 3 pitchers, so with Myers still available, I wouldn’t have gone past $30 to get Smoltz. That’s exactly what it took to get him & I had my top 3 with $1 to spare. Not too long after I dropped money on Smoltz, news broke that he was experiencing arm troubles. With any 40 year old pitcher, this is definitely cause for concern. It sounds like he is fine & that the Braves are just taking it easy with him, but it’s another pitcher that I can’t start in week one. Myers was actually called next and went for the same $30.

Who doesn’t love Cory Hart? I guess the rest of the people in my league because I was able to get the darling of fantasy baseball for just $22. Granted, his numbers are better suited for a roto league, but I couldn’t pass this one up at that price. An improving player on an improving team should provide me with some stability as my 2nd outfielder.

Along with my pitching strategy that was successful the past couple of years, I’ve always been a big believer in spending money on quality middle infielders in this league. I was not alone as all of the top middle infielders went early, and they went for a lot. There’s no doubt I made a huge error in calculating this. Looking back, it might have been better to lock in Brandon Phillips at $25 since he ended up going for $40. Because of this, I was forced to spend money on one player who I never thought I’d draft – Kaz Matsui (and that was before his anal fissure). I had to pay $8 for him, & I was not happy about it. But at this point, I pretty much had no choice as there were no quality 2Bs left. Also, he’s another player I won’t be able to start in week 1.

I was able to get Yuniel Escobar for $11 a bit later. I really like his potential based on the numbers he put up toward the end of last year and the fact that he should hit 2nd in a nice Braves lineup. This is definitely not the potent MI that I was looking for so far though.

The rest of my draft rounded out as follows: The other Chris Young for $20; Hiroki Kuroda for $8; Saito for $7; Mark Reynolds for $3; Chad Tracy for $2; Nick Johnson for $2 (a bargain here, but this was before it was announced that he’d be the every day 1B in Washington); Kyle Kendrick for $1; Willy Tavares for $6; Chris Duncan for $8; Shawn Hill for $1; Carlos Villanueva for $1; & Ian Stewart for $1.

I am pretty set up at the corner spots with Howard, A-Ram, Loney, Nick Johnson, & Chad Tracy/Mark Reynolds. I am definitely weak up the middle, but I know there are other teams that have needs at CI. Although I never like to rely on the needs of others, hopefully I can fill my MI needs with a trade. Knowing now that I could have gotten Hanley Ramirez for the same price as Ryan Howard and still put together a good corner infield rotation frustrates me quite a bit.

My lineup (after some pickups to fill my MI needs) projects as follows:

C – Molina ($6)
1B – Howard ($49)
2B – Matsui (Picked up Loretta to fill in) ($8)
SS – Yuniel Escobar ($11)
3B – Aramis Ramirez ($37)
MI – Eugenio Velez (pickup)
CI – Loney ($1 Keeper)
OF – Dunn ($27)
OF – Hart ($22)
OF – Chris Young ($20)
OF – Chris Duncan/Willy Tavares ($8/$6)

SP – Hamels ($39)
SP – Chris Young ($30)
SP – Smoltz ($30)
SP – Kuroda ($8)
SP – Shawn Hill/Paul Maholm/Carlos Villanueva
RP – Lidge ($10)
RP – Saito ($7)

Thoughts?

Bill James on 60 Minutes

2008-03-29T21:43:00.001-04:00

60 Minutes is airing a piece on the father of Sabermetrics, Bill James, this Sunday. Should be interesting to see a mainstream media portrayal of Mr. James. 60 Minutes.....it's not just for your grandparents anymore.

Swisher to Lead Off

2008-03-27T09:59:00.004-04:00

Manager Ozzie Guillen revealed that he intends to have Swisher lead off and play CF. This should hurt Swisher's RBI total but increase his run total. His overall value remains the same.

Fantasy Baseball Expert League

2008-03-27T00:16:00.008-04:00

On Monday night Mike and I participated in the first annual Greener on the Other Side Expert League. It is a 12 team 5x5 roto league hosted on Yahoo!. The roster size is a bit different than we are accustomed to as there is a fifth OF spot and a second Util spot. We were both excited to be able to draft one more time this spring before the games started to count (this was the 4th league for both of us). The particiapants were Adam Ronis of Newsday, Jordan Frank from Roto Rob, Brad Stewart from MLB Front Office, Geoff Stein from Mock Draft Central, Rudy Gamble from Razzball, Eric Stashin from Roto Professor, Sean Salsbery from Warning Track Power, Jay Sarney and Brett "Ahman" Greenfield from Greener On Other Side, Ken Mathe from Roto Advice, and a "Regular Guy" that that the writers at GOTOS selected from their stable of loyal readers.

Round 1
We were handed the 6th pick in this draft and were really hoping for Holliday to fall to us. Unfortunately, Brett nabbed him with the 5th pick. Rollins was our next highest rated player, so we grabbed him. The party line this year is that Rollins had a career year in 2007 and is likely to regress this season. I agree that he may have had a career year but I see no reason for a big correction/regression this year. We were happy to grab a 25-40 player to anchor our offense.

Round 2
At 19 overall we could not pass up B.J. Upton. He has ended up on all of my mixed-league teams this year. We definitely feel that he can build on his 2007 season of 24 HR and 22 SB. Manager Joe Maddon has been on record suggesting that Upton and Crawford will have the green light all season. A 30-30 season is not out of the question. Our team now has two elite middle infielders that hit for power and have 30+ steal potential. At this point we are very happy with the early goings of the draft.

Round 3
The guys at Greener were at it again. They snatched Rios right out of our queue. Our next highest rated player was Nick Markakis. We surveyed the landscape and felt that there was a chance that he might fall to us in the 4th round if we passed on him. We opted to roll the dice and drafted Magglio Ordonez. There is nothing sexy about this pick – he is an elite hitter in a great offense. The third round is the proper place for him to go.

Round 4
Damn! Markakis went 5 picks later to Rudy over at Razzball. Looking at our board we felt that we should grab another bat and decided to go with Travis Hafner. Adam Dunn was our other option but we chose to bypass the AVG killer and take a chance on a bounce back season from Pronk. Dunn is likely to hit for more power than Hafner, but it wouldn’t be out of the question for each of them to hit 35 to 40 HRs. If Hafner comes close to Dunn’s HR output then he is likely to pace him in AVG as well.

Round 5
At this point we have our SS, 2B, 1 OF and a 1B. The remaining 3B options were not very enticing but we had a back-up plan in the event that we miss out on the top 8. With that in mind we decided to close the book on the best middle infield in the league. We grabbed Robinson Cano. This allowed us to completely ignore the middle infield positions for the rest of the draft – no reaching for Kelly Johnson in the 9th round for this squad. Grabbing another solid .300+ hitter will also allow us to take some chances later on the in the draft (such as a Cust, Swisher or Ankiel).

Round 6
Time to grab an arm. Mike is very high on Chris Young this year so he became the obvious choice. I actually have Gallardo rated higher than Young but we both knew that we could pass on Yovani and still grab him a few rounds later. The knock on Young is that he doesn’t go deep into games which cuts into his potential for wins. It is a valid concern, but we are willing to take the chance that he can average 6+ innings per start this season. If he can ever get close to 200 innings his strikeout total would be a comfortable 185+.

Round 7
As indicated earlier, we had our eyes on some big power, scary batting average guys and Swisher was at the top of the list. The positional flexibility is nice (1B and OF) but our intention was to use him as an OF. This league starts five OFs and the pool is not particularly deep. A 35 HR, .260 AVG season is what we hope to get.

Round 8
After we grabbed Swisher the top tier of closers was exhausted. Our intention heading into the draft was to walk away with 3 closers while ignoring the top tier. If K-Rod or Nathan was available for us in this round we would have taken a long look, but we were happy to see them get taken. We decided to pull the trigger on Jim Thome. He is DH eligible only, but with 2 Util spots we felt like we could not pass up his power. This will not hamstring us because we’ll still have some flexibility with the second Util spot and also with Swisher’s dual eligibility.

Round 9
As planned, Gallardo fell to us in the 9th round. He will finish as a top 10 SP this year. The knee surgery has kept his ADP in check (he typically goes around 120 overall). I have sung his praises enough on this site already so I will spare you the glowing remarks. The only annoyance of this pick is that he will be on the DL for the first two weeks of the season and the league set-up doesn’t include DL spots.

Round 10
We were dead set on taking a closer with this pick. Rivera was our first choice but Rudy was at it again, grabbing him 5 picks before our turn. Valverde was the next closer on our list. Moving on…

Round 11
…let’s grab closer #2. We were debating between Street, Capps and Soria. Mike felt more comfortable taking the established player and I concurred. We grabbed Street, who promptly blew the first save opportunity of the season 10 hours later. Let’s hope it’s not a sign of things to come.

Round 12
We gave our team a once over and realized that we were long on power and light on speed. By taking Rollins and Upton with our first two picks we got lulled into a false sense of SB security, only to completely ignore the category until now. To not fall too far behind we decided to grab Taveras. He will steal 30+ bases and hit around .300. If he can stay healthy all year he has the potential to approach 50 steals, but 30 is our conservative estimate.

Round 13
Our 3B contingency plan falls into place. Kouzmanoff is being undervalued this year, largely because of his slow start to last season and his home park. Kouz is likely to hit 25 HRs this year with a .290 AVG. He is a tremendous value 150 picks into the draft.

Round 14
Part 2 of our contingency plan. We are confident in our Kouzmanoff projection. However, if he doesn’t pan out we wanted to back him up with the 2008 AL ROY: Evan Longoria. We were both aware of his demotion to AAA prior to making this pick. We have the ability to wait for him to be called up in June and then reap the benefits thereafter. A 15-10 second half is certainly within his grasp.

Round 15
With our infield largely set (except at CI) we decided to grab our fourth OF. Many pundits are anticipating big things from Milledge this year. A 20-20 campaign would be nice (and certainly feasible), but with Manny Acta’s anti-SB philosophy we might have to temper the speed projections. We think 20-15 is attainable.

Round 16
The plan for this pick was to grab our third and final closer. We had both Wood and Sherrill queued up. When Wood was selected a few spots ahead of us we grabbed Sherrill and didn’t look back.

Round 17
Randy Johnson – Mike and I were debating whether or not to select him since the 14th round. I have RJ safely in my top 25 SP rankings this year while Mike does not. However, at this point in the draft there aren’t too many starters out there that can strike out a batter per inning. The big question with Johnson is health. If he can make 20+ starts then we will get proper value out of this selection.

Round 18
Our second big power, batting average disaster pick goes to Jack Cust. There’s not too much to say here other than he will likely end up with 30 HRs and 200+ strikeouts. Hopefully the A’s don’t have a quick hook with him this year. The Japan series did not go well for Cust (0-3 with a walk and three strikeouts). We are not ready to panic just yet.

Round 19
We felt like we needed some more speed here so we took Theriot. If he can remain at the top of the order (which seems increasingly likely now that a Brian Roberts deal is off the table) he will be able to pile up runs and SBs.

Round 20
If Mike were running this draft solo I’m sure he would have taken Tom Gorzelanny by now. Fortunately for me (I’m not high on Tom G. this year) Gorzelanny was taken right before our turn in the 20th. We decided to take a chance with the Reds’ Edinson Volquez. His rotation spot is locked up. Hopefully he can find some better command while maintaining a high K rate.

Round 21
This was our most boring pick of the draft. Mark Teahen will probably end up with a 15-10, .285 line. He gives us positional flexibility (1B and OF) and a steady stat line that fills all of the categories.

Round 22
Our strategy over the next few picks was to fill out our pitching staff. We wanted to have at least three arms on our bench so the idea was to walk away from this draft with 9 SPs. To continue our trend of selection pitchers who have trouble racking up innings we selected Randy Wolf. A high K rate and a spacious new home ballpark were the motivators here.

Round 23
Greg Maddux is the model of consistency. He doesn’t strike out many batters but he seems to find a way to win double-digit games every year. Our staff already includes a lot of risky, big strikeout pitchers so we felt that we could afford the hit in K’s with this pick.

Round 24
Ervin Santana has locked up a rotation spot with the injuries to Lackey and Escobar. His home/road splits have dominated any discussion of Santana throughout his career. We will likely start him at home initially and monitor his progress on the road.

Round 25
My sleeper pick of the year, whom I’ve taken in every draft thus far, is Mark Prior. No one doubts his ability. If he can make 22 starts this year he will put up some very interesting numbers. That ballpark will only help his cause. He will likely not take the mound until late-May, and without having the ability to put him on the DL it makes this pick a little risky. We just felt that we needed to take some big chances with our pitching staff.

Round 26
Manny Parra is another selection in the mold of Edinson Volquez. A young, big upside big K SP on a team with a good offense. Hopefully he can stick with the team all year even when Gallardo comes off the DL.

Round 27
We finally filled our catcher slot with Carlos Ruiz. Our plan was to take either him or Chris Snyder (monster spring) in the last round. Given that there was no one compelling on the board this late we grabbed Ruiz one round earlier than expected.

Round 28
Is this draft over yet? We decided to take a shot on Chris Denorfia. There wasn’t much to this pick – we’ll likely drop him as soon as we spot someone in free agency that can help us.

Here is the final product (HR-SB projections):

C: Carlos Ruiz (15-5)
1B: Travis Hafner (35-0)
2B: B.J. Upton (30-30)
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff (25-0)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (25-40)
CI: Mark Teahen (15-10)
MI: Robinson Cano (20-0)
OF: Magglio Ordonez (25-0)
OF: Nick Swisher (35-0)
OF: Willy Taveras (0-35)
OF: Lastings Milledge (20-15)
OF: Jack Cust (35-0)
Util: Jim Thome (35-0)
Util: Ryan Theriot (0-25)
BN: Evan Longoria
BN: Chris Denorfia

P: Chris Young
P: Yovani Gallardo
P: Randy Johnson
P: Edinson Volquez
P: Randy Wolf
P: Greg Maddux
P: Jose Valverde
P: Huston Street
P: George Sherrill
BN: Manny Parra
BN: Mark Prior
BN: Ervin Santana

Based on our projections we will end up with roughly 315 HRs and 160 SBs. Those totals should put us in the top 4 teams in those categories. We will closely monitor the team as the season moves along and will keep you updated on any transactions. The full results of the draft can be found here.

Do you think we can contend?

The Holy Trinity of Fantasy Baseball

2008-03-26T14:45:00.006-04:00

I've never been a religious man. In fact, most people would that say I'm the furthest thing from it. But recently, I have been witness to something that could only be described as divine. I call it the Holy Trinity of Fantasy Baseball. How does one become a witness? Easy - here's how:

1. Sign yourself up for the MLB Extra Innings Package (for your home TV, not the internet version).
2. Get yourself a Slingbox.
3. Make sure that you have a compatible phone or PDA.

That's all you have to do to worship at the feet of the Fantasy Baseball Gods. With all three of these in place, you can now watch almost every baseball game at any time either at home on your TV or on the go with your phone. I don't have to explain to the common fantasy junkie how life changing this is, but just imagine you are stuck at your Aunt's 80th birthday party at the same time you have Tim Lincecum pitching. You could keep hitting the refresh button on your phone's internet browser. Or, you could just watch the game live while everyone else is watching a video retrospective of your Aunt's life. The choice is yours.

The Top 50 over the next 5 Years (Real Baseball)

2008-03-26T12:01:00.004-04:00

Rob Neyer put together a list of the top 50 major leaguers for the next five years. It is an interesting read and I'm sure most people will have strong arguments against some of his picks (Johnny Peralta at no. 21?). One thing is certain - he nailed the #1 choice. Important to consider that Neyer is looking at this from a real baseball perspective and not considering fantasy value. Let us know who you think are the top five players over the next five years (real and fantasy).

Wood to Close

2008-03-24T14:14:00.002-04:00

Cubs Manager Lou Piniella has named Kerry Wood the closer. Wood certainly has the potential to post a good K rate and a high save total if he can stay on the mound this season. I would definitely draft Wood as a #3 closer in mixed leagues.

Fantasy Baseball Expert League

2008-03-24T13:26:00.005-04:00

A Quick Note: We will be particpating in the first annual Fantasy Baseball Expert League sponsored by Greener on the Other Side. It is a standard 5x5 roto league with 12 teams. There are 11 experts and one 'regular guy' chosen by our friends at Greener. We will have a draft re-cap posted later on this week.

Going Once, Going Twice…

2008-03-24T00:38:00.006-04:00

Sold! Prince Fielder for $45. That was how the draft started on Friday night. This is an 8 team NL only, H2H points league hosted on CBS. The auction style draft presents numerous challenge and opportunities for the astute fantasy owner to capitalize on (and the unprepared fantasy owner to fail).

We have a $330 salary cap and one keeper heading into each season. An owner can only keep a player for one year which means it is more important to have someone that can help you right now rather than 3 years down the road. Heading into the season I kept Jake Peavy at $33. At only 10% of my budget Peavy is a steal. I was able to acquire Peavy at a discount in last year’s draft because of his down year in 2006. Peavy was my #2 ranked starter behind Carpenter and I was thrilled to get him at such a price (I was willing to go up to $41 for him). I am fully expecting Peavy to put up numbers similar to last year’s line. Another 19 win season might be asking too much, but as long as he keeps his K rate up and wins at least 15 I’ll be happy.

My strategy heading into the draft was to spend roughly $215 on hitting and $115 on pitching. This was merely a guideline. The reason for the slightly higher pitching allocation (most owners stick to a 25% - 30% pitching budget) is that this league setup favors top starters. A pitcher, on a good week, can carry you to a victory. With Peavy already locked up at $33 I had roughly $80 more to spend. I was hoping to grab another top tier starter, two closers, and round out the rest of my staff with high upside, high k rate pitchers who play on teams with good offenses.

On the hitting side I generally eschew the big time bats that go for penthouse prices. I’d prefer to spread out my budget on quite a few $20-$35 hitters rather than break the bank for the Prince Fielder’s of the world. Also, I focus on power over speed. The home run is king, especially in points leagues. A couple of homers from one of your outfielders will more than compensate for their 0-3 days with 2 strikeouts (a negative category in this league).

This actually brings up a good strategy point – know your league rules and how they actually apply to the ultimate scoring product. This league penalizes a player 1 point for every strikeout. Most of the other owners in this league completely misinterpret the effect of this rule and end up avoiding/undervaluing some very valuable hitters. For instance, I was able to snag Adam Dunn last year for $21 while players like Garret Atkins, who finished with only 20 more fantasy points than Dunn, went for $40+. The key is to assess a players overall value relative to the scoring system. Dunn struck out 165 times last year. However, he hit 40 HRs (HRs are king) and walked 101 times. I’ll gladly take the bad (KOs) with the good (massive power and discipline).

Now onto the draft. It didn’t take long for me to dive in. When Carlos Beltran’s price stalled in the mid thirties I had to chime in with a bid. It held up and I grabbed my first player for $36. Beltran was one of my hitting anchors last year when I paid $44 for him. Although he wasn’t specifically on my radar this year I was glad to get him at what I deemed a fair price.

My next grab was Rickie Weeks for $18. This league places a premium on quality infielders, especially those up the middle. If you wait too long to grab them then you can wind up in a bidding war for a Freddy Sanchez type and end up spending $20 on a slap-hitter with no power or speed. Weeks has the potential for a 20-20 season and I’m happy to let him achieve that on my squad. I’d rather have Weeks at $18 then Uggla at $25.

The next name I grabbed was Matt Capps for $6. Last year numerous closers went for double digit prices so I felt that Capps for $6 was a steal. As the draft went on it became clear that all of the owners were gun shy with their closer bids and many of the better closers (Valverde, F. Cordero) eventually went for less than Capps. With that said, Capps is coming off of a nice season and I expect more of the same in 2008.

My next two picks were Miguel Tejada for $28 and Mark Teixeira for $41. Tejada provides me with some pop up the middle. The big three shortstops all went for prices north of $50. I am not comfortable spending top dollar for hitters, especially those that aren’t huge power sources. Tejeada has the chance of having the most HRs amongst NL shortstops and I got him for less than half the price of Jose Reyes ($58). Teixeira is a nice bet to approach 40 HRs with healthy Run and RBI totals. It is a contract year for him and he is auditioning himself for the Mets and Yankees to get into a real life bidding war for his services.

Another big bat comes my way next in the form of Carlos Lee ($39). Lee is a power hitter in a good lineup and should produce a season statistically similar to his 2007. At this point I have two OF’s and a 1B that will each hit around 35 HRs and two MI’s that will each hit around 20 HRs each. That is a nice core to build around.

I have yet to secure my #2 SP at this point and that is because the going rate for pitchers was a little steep. Santana went for $56 which isn’t out of line for this league. However, Webb ($50), Zambrano ($40), Haren ($32) and Maine ($30) all seem like poor bets to earn those prices. Having Peavy at $33 is a real advantage.

My number 2 SP slot is finally filled when I draft Gallardo for $20. I already indicated in my War Room draft re-cap that I feel Yovani is in for a monster season so I will not repeat myself.

Next I grabbed Kouzmanoff for $13. His park limits his power output but over the last few months of 2007 he really put things together. Those 11 post-break HRs are a sign of a big power spike for 2008.

Almost 30 players were called out and sold before I grabbed my next two bats back to back. Jorge Cantu for $4 is a good gamble. Earlier in the day I saw on Rotoworld that the Marlins waived Castillo, clearing the way for Cantu to open the season as the everyday 3B. Here’s hoping that his big spring carries over into the regular season. Hermida at $10 is highway robbery. You’ll notice a theme between this roster and the one I drafted in my War Room league. There are 11 overlapping players, and Hermida is one of them.

My next few picks were low cost, high upside plays: McClouth for $2, Kerry Wood for $1 (my second closer) and Milledge for $4. Both of these OFs will be reserves for me. I was hoping for a potential 20-20 season for Lastings this year but it seems as if Manny Acta is not a friend of the stolen base.

My 3 SP ended up being Randy Wolf. I called out his name for a $1 and you could here a pin drop. I guess all of the injuries have turned people off. However, he generally has a healthy K rate and now he pitches in an extremely favorable park. I like this gamble.

Here is how my final roster came together:

C: Chris Snyder ($3)
1B: Mark Teixeira ($41)
2B: Rickie Weeks ($18)
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff ($13)
SS: Miguel Tejada ($28)
CI: Adrian Gonzalez ($26)
MI: Tad Iguchi ($5)
OF: Carlos Beltran ($36)
OF: Carlos Lee ($39)
OF: Jeremy Hermida ($10)
OF: Pat Burrell ($14)
BN: Lastings Milledge ($4)
BN: Nate McClouth ($2)
BN: Chase Headley ($1)
BN: Jorge Cantu ($4)
BN: Scott Hairston (Supplemental)
BN: Nomar Garciaparra (Supplemental)
BN: Jeff Baker (Supplemental)

SP: Jake Peavy ($33 Keeper)
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($20)
SP: Randy Wolf ($1)
SP: Mark Prior ($1)
SP: Manny Parra ($1)
SP: Johnny Cueto ($2)
SP: Edinson Volquez ($1)
RP: Matt Capps ($6)
RP: Kerry Wood ($1)
BN: Wandy Rodriguez (Supplemental)

Total Hitting Spent: $244 ($29 over my budgeted allowance)
Total Pitching Spent: $66 ($49 under my budgeted allowance)

That’s right – I left $20 on the table. In hindsight I would have liked to have grabbed either Cain or Lincecum with that extra money. Both of those guys went for $15. Aside from that blunder, I also severely underspent on pitching. The reason for this development was that I kept finding bargains on the hitting side. Going into the first few weeks of the season I am in rough shape on the pitching side of the ledger. Gallardo and Prior are hurt and my young trio (Parra, Cueto, and Volquez) are unproven. I need at least one of them to step up and come out of the gate throwing smoke. If my bats can keep me competitive until my arms get healthy then I think I can be a force beginning mid-May.

The complete results of the draft will be posted later on this week after Mike writes his analysis. Feel free to chime in and let me know your thoughts.

Anatamoy of a Draft – War Room, Part II

2008-03-23T22:28:00.008-04:00

Here’s a look at the same draft from another perspective…..mine. Based on random order selection, I was given the first overall pick. I tend to favor having the first or last pick in a snake draft. It allows me to avoid guessing what will happen between my picks and just go for what I really want because my next pick is so far away.

Going in, I had some very basic and loose strategies. I typically don’t like to obsess on a particular strategy because you can easily lose sight of putting together the best team by ignoring what’s taken place and adamantly adhering to your pre-draft strategies. You can mock all you want, but you’ll never be able to predict exactly what’s going to happen. If you don’t adjust, you are susceptible to making some mistakes. That being said, I knew that I wanted to load up on closers and, wherever possible, give slightly more value to players with multiple position eligibility. I learned the hard way last year that in a daily transactions league like this, you need at least 3 closers (and that’s probably still on the low side). So there you have it, my 2 basic goals in this draft – closers and position flexibility.

Round 1 – Alex Rodriguez
It’s hard to imagine A-Rod having a better season than last year, but even his down years are worthy of a #1 overall pick. While some might disagree, I think last year was the perfect storm (in a good way) for him. The potential opt-out fueled his entire season. It was a win-win situation for him regardless of how well he performed. Have a down year & you still have the remainder of the richest contract in baseball history. Have a tremendous year & negotiate a new, record setting deal. That, combined with his ridiculously hot start, made for a dream season. Another quick start will be key to putting up monster numbers again. At least he won’t have to deal with fickle Yankee fans booing him every time he doesn’t go yard. He gets a free pass for at least a month.

Rounds 2 & 3 – Jake Peavy & Carl Crawford
The draft pretty much went as expected for the remainder of the first 2 rounds. The only mild surprises could be Pujols going #6 overall (which is pretty early given the concern about his elbow) and Ryan Braun going 12th overall in a non-keeper league.
I had 2 pitchers worthy of being selected with my 2/3 pick – Santana & Peavy. If both were gone, I would have passed on pitching altogether. Santana went 14th overall, so I was holding out hope that people wouldn’t panic on the pitching front and grab Peavy in the next 5 picks. Peavy led the league in ERA (2.54) & strikeouts last year (240). He’s a legitimate triple-crown threat. With him, I am setting a good base for W, K, ERA & WHIP.
I thought I’d be able to get BJ Upton with my 2/3 pick. Guess I wasn’t the only one intrigued by his eligibility at second base. That left me with a choice between Beltran, Crawford & Carlos Lee. I like the idea of getting a top SB guy without sacrificing every other category. I’m going to take a hit in the power department with this pick, but between A-rod’s 15-20 SBs & Crawford’s 50, I don’t have to worry about the category and waste a pick on a “cheap” steals guy who gives you nothing else.

Rounds 4 & 5 – Brian Roberts & Carlos Guillen
Now I definitely don’t have to worry about steals. Roberts is another guy who gives you tremendous help in that category while still being productive in AVG, R & TB. The Orioles lineup scares me, but the prospect of seeing him in a Cubs lineup (which sounds almost like a given, at this point) was too much to pass on. The disparity between 1st & 2nd tier 2nd baseman is pretty vast, and that second tier starts after Cano. In hindsight, I probably could have waited and grabbed Cano with my 6/7 since I already have a nice advantage in steals. I didn’t think he’d last, but he did. While this pick definitely sets me up in steals, I am taking a hit in the power departments. Cano could have provided some help there.
Guillen might have been a slight reach here. Again, I was right at the cusp of falling into the next tier at SS. Reyes, Hanley Ramirez & Rollins are in a tier all their own. After that, you’re looking at Jeter, Tulowitzki, Guillen & Young. Jeter was gone, & because I needed power, it was between Tulowizki & Guillen. The dual position eligibility for Guillen and a potent Detroit lineup gave him an edge. Plus, Tulo might have more of an upside, but there is more risk in assuming his production off of only one full year. Guillen’s .300, 20, 90, 10 is a nice supplement to my lineup so far.

Rounds 6 & 7 – JJ Putz & Francisco Rodriguez
The psychology of a draft – it’s a beautiful thing. I don’t fancy myself as some kind of genius, so I knew that I wasn’t alone in my strategy to load up on closers. 59 picks in and no closers had been taken. My objective here was two-fold – get 2 elite closers and start a run on the position. Believe it or not, it actually worked. 3 of the next 6 picks were closers. Putz & K-Rod top my list of closers. I was happy to get them here knowing that there would be some kind of closer run, whether or not it was started by me, in the 7th & 8th rounds.

Rounds 8 & 9 – Chris Young & Chris Young!!
How often do you get to draft the same name with back-to-back picks? I’ve always been a fan of (the pitcher) Chris Young’s potential since his days in Texas. Combine that with San Diego’s spacious Petco Park and it was a match made in fantasy heaven for me. Our friends at Greener on the Other Side have a nice piece about this being a break out season for him. I won’t repeat the numbers, but a healthy Chris Young can produce at a level worthy being called a top tier pitcher. It’s a big if, but I’m drinking the Kool-Aid and in the 8th/9th round, I’m more than willing to take the risk.
I still need power. Looking at who was still available, I couldn’t pass up on Chris Young (the outfielder) here. His rookie season produced 32 HRs and 27 SBs, but a mind-numbingly low .237 average & only 68 RBIs. It’s hard for me to compute how someone with 32 HRs can only drive in 68 RBIs, but it happened. As his contact rate increases in his second full year, he should produce similar power #s and a slightly better average. I’m sacrificing AVG quite a bit here, but I really was targeting HRs. And, to repeat an already recurring theme, I do not have to even consider SBs any more.

Rounds 10 & 11 – James Loney & Felix Hernandez
The only position I did not have anyone yet was 1B. I really wanted Swisher here because of his dual position eligibility, but he was taken right before I was up. Loney was next up on my list of first basemen. Once a regular in L.A., he put up a line of .331, 15, 67, and a 919 OPS. He’s produced at every level along his trip to the majors (although his mysterious lack of HRs in Triple-A last year are a bit concerning), so expecting him to improve on last year’s fine numbers aren’t much of a reach.
I’m pretty much in best player available mode from here on out. And there, staring me right in the face, was King Felix. With 2+ years of MLB experience underneath him, the 21 year old is facing a season where his production must finally catch up to the hype. The Wins, Ks and ERA will be there, but the WHIP could be a problem. It would be more of a problem if I took him earlier than the 11th round though. Hernandez and his potential here were just too much to pass up.

Rounds 12 & 13 Javier Vazquez & Manny Corpas
Vazquez quietly put together one of the best seasons of his career last year, leading his team in Wins & Ks. I don’t expect much more than what he did in 2007, but in this spot, I’ll gladly take his 2007 numbers.
Closers, closers, closers. Corpas was the best closer available at this point. The job is his and he’s done it before. A lot of my closer decisions are based on job security, past performance & injury history. The position is so fickle that it doesn’t take much to cause a team to switch closers midway through the season. Typically, I prefer to take closers with less variables than someone with better potential.

Rounds 14 & 15 Howie Kendrick & Johnny Damon
Adding to my stable of young players, I went after Kendrick. He’s not going to help where I need it the most in HRs & RBIs, but his production this late in the draft was hard to pass up. With the exception of Chris Young (the outfielder), I have players who should give me a clear edge in average every week. This pick definitely adds to it.
I wouldn’t call this much of a strategy, but I came into the draft wanting to make sure that I had all of the infield positions filled with at least 1 player by the 10th round. I felt that there were plenty of mid-tier outfielders that would be available late and the disparity between the top and the bottom of this tier isn’t as noticeable as it is for all of the other positions. I stuck to that, but now I had to start filling my outfield slots. Damon’s past performance and the fact that he is in one of the league’s best lineups probably skew his value a bit the wrong way. The fact is, he’s been a pretty monumental failure since arriving in New York. Surprisingly, he’s been able to fly under the radar. I don’t think playing time will be an issue, so it’s safe to say that he will score close to 100 runs. Looking back, Josh Hamilton would have been the better pick for me here given my needs for a power hitting outfielder.

Rounds 16 & 17 – Kosuke Fukudome & Raul Ibanez
Filling my outfield need was a priority with these 2 picks. At the time of the draft, Fukudome looked like he had the 2nd spot in a nice Cubs lineup locked up. However, since then it has been revealed that he will bat fifth to break up the righties in the lineup. While his overall production might have been better in the 2 spot, this could turn out to be a blessing for me since I need RBIs. Plus, he’s got a pretty sweet name.
Ibanez quietly & consistently produces seasons that hover around 285, 20, 85. That’s exactly what I needed at this point in the draft.

Rounds 18 & 19 – Edwin Encarnacion & Phil Hughes
Any owner of Encarnacion the past 2 years can tell you how frustrating of a player he is to own. His streakiness combined with management’s apparent lack of patience with him makes it hard to tolerate him being on your roster. But, it’s also hard to ignore his production after being recalled from the minors in the middle of last year. He put up a line of .309, 10, 40 after the lesson. I’m hoping the new regime in Cincinnati shows a bit more patience and he provides me some much needed power numbers.
Having watched pretty much all of Phil Hughes’ major league starts last year, it was clear that he was not the same pitcher after he came back from his hamstring & ankle injury. The arm strength and control were just not there. Still, opponents hit just .232 against him. He came on strong toward the end of last year as he got closer to full strength and even pitched well in a relief role in the playoffs. Completely healthy this year, Hughes will make big steps toward becoming the future ace that the franchise is banking on.

Rounds 20 & 21 – Stephen Drew & Kevin Gregg
What good is position flexibility if you don’t have any other alternatives at the position? I drafted Guillen as a SS & 1B, but without a quality SS behind him, I would be eliminating the possibility of using him at first. Drew’s terrible 2007 average of .238 is a huge turnoff, but his potential combined with his strong post-season showing made him worthy of a pick here. I would have preferred Yuniel Escobar, but he was taken a few picks earlier.
Back to closers. I was deciding between Kerry Wood & Kevin Gregg here. As mentioned earlier, I prefer closers with few variables. Gregg is productive and isn’t facing any job security issues. The biggest question is whether he’ll be dealt to a contender later in the year. I’ll take the trade risk and ride him for 4 months over Wood getting injured yet again. Plus, as I was making this pick, the Duke/Belmot game was in the final seconds & admittedly, it was hard for me to concentrate. I couldn’t get Wood’s injury history out of my head as Duke held on to win.

Rounds 22 & 23 – Ubaldo Jimenez & Hiroki Kuroda
Two potential picks here…..sort of. Kuroda projects to be a middle of the rotation starter in L.A. His groundball tendencies fit well with Dodger Stadium, & I’m a big believer in established Japanese pitchers coming here and performing over their true potential because they are unknown. The league eventually catches up, but I’m expecting some early success.

Rounds 24 & 25 – Jon Lester & Andre Ethier
Lester provides potential to give me some cheap wins. He isn’t as highly regarded as some of the other young arms in the AL East, but the fact is, he is on a winning team that will score a lot of runs behind him.
Ethier’s biggest problems is a crowded Dodger outfield. Couple that with Joe Torre’s love of veteran players (Juan Pierre) and he is forced to take a backseat to Matt Kemp to start. I’m hoping that the Dodgers either trade Pierre or that his lack of production outshines his contract and Ethier gets a chance to play.

Rounds 26, 27 & 28 – Ty Wigginton, Bengie Molina & Aaron Cook

After all is said and done, I will be running the following team out there:

1B – Loney
2B – Roberts
3B – Alex Rodriguez
SS – Carlos Guillen
CI – Edwin Encarnacion
MI – Howie Kendrick
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Chris Young
RF – Fukudome
OF – Damon
OF – Ibanez
UT – Stephen Drew/Wigginton/Ethier

SP – Peavy
SP – Chris Yong
SP – Felix Hernandez
SP – Javier Vazquez
SP – Phil Hughes
RP – Putz
RP – Felix Rodriguez
RP – Manny Corpas
2 Pitching Spots – Kevin Gregg, Kuroda, Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jon Lester

Overall, while I’m lacking a bit in HRs, most of my offensive players are not one dimensional and should provide me with a balanced attack. I really like how my pitching staff came together. I have nice flexibility with 4 closers and a lot of strike out potential. Let me know how you think I did. Complete draft results can be found in the following post.

Anatamoy of a Draft – War Room, Part I

2008-03-21T23:45:00.003-04:00

Thursday March 20th was the annual War Room draft. This is a 10 team 7x7 H2H league held on Yahoo! with the following categories: (R, HR, RBI, SB, TB, AVG., OPS – W, L, K, SV, TBA, ERA, WHIP). Some other things to consider in this league are roster size/composition (28 spots, a DL spot, and specific OF spots), lineup change frequency (daily) and competition (above average to astute).

Heading into the draft I knew I had the 3rd pick overall. That knowledge didn’t really affect my strategy at all, but it is not an ideal place to be this year. In this league (and most others) A-Rod is the clear-cut top choice. After that any of seven players can go next. In that type of scenario I’d rather have a later pick, such as the 8th slot. But in the end it doesn’t matter – one should be able to construct a winning team regardless of draft position, especially in a 10 team league.

Rounds 1 and 2
With the 3rd overall pick I chose David Wright. I actually have him ranked #2 behind A-Rod so I was pleased that he fell to me. Wright provides me elite production across all 7 hitting categories. He also is an elite 3B, which is important because the position, although top-heavy, is not deep. Here is how the first 20 picks played out:

1) Team 1: Alex Rodriguez
2) Team 2: Hanley Ramirez
3) Chris' Team: David Wright
4) Team 4: Jose Reyes
5) Team 5: Jimmy Rollins
6) Team 6: Albert Pujols
7) Team 7: Matt Holliday
8) Team 8: Chase Utley
9) Team 9: Miguel Cabrera
10) Team 10: Alfonso Soriano
11) Team 10: Grady Sizemore
12) Team 9: Ryan Braun
13) Team 8: Ryan Howard
14) Team 7: Johan Santana
15) Team 6: Prince Fielder
16) Team 5: David Ortiz
17) Team 4: Vladimir Guerrero
18) Chris' Team: B.J. Upton
19) Team 2: Brandon Phillips
20) Team 1: Jake Peavy

I think that the first questionable pick is Pujols at #6 overall. His lingering injuries might limit his upside this season. The Cardinals also might opt to shut him down after the All-Star Break if they are clearly out of contention which would prohibit Pujols from providing anything close to first round value. Holliday, Utely and Cabrera are all great values at 7, 8 and 9. I personally have them ranked 4, 5 and 6.
David Ortiz at #16 is a tremendous value. With 1B eligibility he should provide top 10 value. There was absolutely no chance that he would get past me at #18, and Bones War knew it. My pick of B.J. Upton has to do with his ability to help me across all hitting categories and also because of his positional eligibility (2B and CF). Peavy at #20 is a great value as well. He could arguably finish as the #1 pitcher and should have probably went off the board about 5 picks earlier.

Rounds 3 and 4
I am still going best available player in these rounds. I have a list of my top 28 players and I work off of those rankings until they are cleared. Carlos Lee is a big stick and he plays the weakest OF position for fantasy purposes this year (LF). If Peavy was available I would have taken him but I was please to continue my strategy of grabbing the best available players regardless of position.

In round 4 I was able to grab Nick Markakis whom I expect to give me 30/20 line this year. With a 7x7 league it is important to grab as many stat fillers as possible. Through 4 rounds I have 4 players that will provide me with production in all 7 hitting categories.

21) Team 1: Carl Crawford
22) Team 2: Carlos Beltran
23) Chris' Team: Carlos Lee
24) Team 4: Magglio Ordonez
25) Team 5: Curtis Granderson
26) Team 6: Ichiro Suzuki
27) Team 7: Carlos Pena
28) Team 8: Brandon Webb
29) Team 9: Alex Rios
30) Team 10: Lance Berkman
31) Team 10: C.C. Sabathia
32) Team 9: Chone Figgins
33) Team 8 Victor Martinez
34) Team 7: Derek Jeter
35) Team 6: Mark Teixeira
36) Team 5: Aramis Ramirez
37) Team 4: Bobby Abreu
38) Chris' Team: Nick Markakis
39) Team 2: Derrek Lee
40) Team 1: Brian Roberts

Carlos Pena at #27 could either be proper value or a complete waste of a pick. He usually lasts another 30 picks so I think it was quite a reach to grab him in round 3. All the other picks seem fine, although I wouldn’t touch Ichiro or Granderson in round 3 in this league either.

Round 5
Corey Hart – Its 43 picks into the draft yet I was still able to pull someone off of my top 28 list. Hart is another 7 category filler and he also has CF eligibility. I actually had Adam Dunn rated one spot higher on my board but Hart’s CF eligibility was too good to pass up at that spot.

Round 6
Dunn did not make his way back to me – he went 2 picks before me. At this point my Top 28 list is now completely exhausted. Looking at my roster I have five 7 category studs at 2B, 3B, LF, CF and RF. My draft sheet says that my 2nd tier of 1B is running out so I grab Adrian Gonzalez. I know that Petco zaps some of his power but he still went 30-100 last year and I expect the same this year.

Round 7
I finally take my first pitcher – John Smoltz. I actually have him as my sixth most valuable SP. I was hoping that Cole Hamels would fall to me here but he was grabbed right after I took Gonzalez. Smoltz should provide me with double-digit wins and a healthy K rate and I am happy with him as my staff ace.

In this league the daily transactions allow an owner to stream pitchers – which is extremely effective in this format. With this knowledge my plan was to wait until at least the 7th round before grabbing a pitcher (unless Peavy fell to me in the 3rd). Also, I know that my SP rankings are much different than those of the other owners in this league. That gives me the ability to focus more on hitting and RPs early while still giving me the opportunity to grab pitchers in my top 25 in the middle rounds.

Round 8
Rafael Furcal – This is a slight reach but SS is very weak this year after the big 3 are off the board. I wanted to avoid missing out on the Tier 2 SS so I grabbed Furcal. He is off to a nice Spring and I expect him to reach the 35 SB plateau this year, provided he avoids the DL.

Round 9
Mariano Rivera – I finally take a closer. My plan was to wait for the Tier 1 closers to leave the board before I took one. Rivera was the 7th closer taken. In this league I generally carry 3-5 closers. This allows me to win the Save category in most weeks and it doesn’t prevent me from competing in the Wins and Ks categories either because of the daily lineup changes. I can keep up to five closers active (3 RP slots and 2 P slots) while sliding my starters in and out of the lineup (5 active SP slots) depending on when they pitch.

Round 10
Francisco Liriano – This was my first “reach” pick of the draft. There were six pitchers still on the board that I ranked higher than Liriano but I thought that at least 2 of them would still be on the board in the next few rounds (and luckily they were). This is a pure speculative pick. Regardless of how his ratios end up he should provide me with a high K rate. As you can tell, that is the one pitching attribute that I value the most as it is the best predictor of success.

Round 11
Yovani Gallardo – It may be aggressive, but I have Yovani as my 10th ranked SP in 2008. I am not worried about his knee and I am not a believer in the “sophomore slump” theory. Last year Gallardo was dominant, striking out 101 in 110.1 innings. I expect that healthy K rate to continue. Also, the Brewers are much better defensively this year with Cameron in CF and Braun no longer butchering the hot corner. Those two moves alone should directly help the Milwaukee pitchers keep their ERA’s down and their win totals up.

Round 12
Rickie Weeks – This pick was all about position scarcity. We start a 2B, SS and MI in this league and I didn’t want to reach into the Tier 3 SS to fill this position. Luckily there were still a few Tier 2 second basemen still on board and I found one that should provide me with a healthy dose of power and speed (15-25 as a baseline projection).

Round 13
Matt Capps – Time to grab my second closer. I do not factor the strength of a team when I create my closer rankings. The idea of a closer having more save opportunities if his team has a higher win total is simply incorrect. That knowledge alone draws me to take closers with good skills (read high k rate, low walk rate) versus closers with bad skills who play on good teams (Todd Jones anyone?). Capps fits the bill nicely (I could have easily gone with Soria as well here).

Round 14
Here is the second SP that I figured would still be on the board well after I took Liriano in round 10. The low win total scares people off and the presence of the sexy Tim Lincecum make people forget how good (and unlucky) Cain was last year. He had a solid 7.34 K/9 rate and component ERA of 3.26. I gladly add him as my #4 SP in any league.

Round 15
Closer #3, Brad Lidge. His K/9 rate last year was a healthy 11.82. His new ballpark probably won’t help keep his HR numbers low but I could have done worse for my third closer.

Round 16
Conor Jackson. It was time to fill in my CI slot and Jackson was a hitter that I was targeting heading into the draft. The threat of Tony Clark stealing playing time is no longer present. Jackson also seemingly has the 3rd spot in the batting order locked up to himself. I can see Jackson approaching 20 HRs this year. But if he struggles I would not hesitate to bench/drop him and move in another direction.

Round 17
Ted Lilly becomes the 5th SP that I have taken in the draft. He is my 24th ranked SP which means that we are 163 picks into the draft and I am still able to grab a top 25 pitcher. This confirms that I had a correct strategy heading into this draft: wait on SP as there will be plenty high-quality starters available in the middle rounds. Lilly had a K/9 rate last year of 7.57 and a component ERA of 3.16.

Round 18
Jeremy Hermida. Everyone’s favorite sleeper heading into the 2006 draft is finally being drafted at a reasonable price. I do not think that the speed potential is still there, but his second half batting average of .340 and OPS of .956 suggest that he might be putting it all together.

Round 19
Michael Bourn – This was purely a speed pick (stolen bases and runs). He is set to hit at the top of the Houston lineup. He had a 94.7% stolen base success rate last year in limited ABs.

Round 20
Kevin Kouzmanoff. It was a tale of two seasons for Kouz last year as he struggled mightily before the break but then went on a tear after the break. He hit .317 and bashed 11 HRs after the break.

Rounds 21 & 22
Kerry Wood and C.J. Wilson – both of these guys are supposed to close for their respective clubs. If it looks like either one or both of them will not be closing then I will release them. If they do close then they provide me with a massive edge in Saves on a weekly basis (I have 5 closers on my roster at this point).

Rounds 23 – 25
Manny Parra, Mark Prior and Edinson Volquez – Parra and Volquez are two young pitchers with great K rates. They also have a good chance to be in the rotation at the start of the season. At this point in the draft I am looking for high upside plays and these two fit the bill perfectly.

Mark Prior is also an interesting gamble at this point. No one questions his skills – health has always been the issue. He will start the season on the DL which will allow me to free up a roster spot. That is one strategy that I employ in leagues that allow a DL spot. It is practically incorrect to not draft a player who will be on the DL to start the season in these types of leagues. When Prior returns in mid-May I will simply drop my most undesirable pitcher. If Prior can stay healthy, that new park should do wonders for his peripherals.

Round 26
Going back to the well once again I grab Austin Kearns. He has been a staple (disappointment?) on many of my squads over the years. However, his power potential this late in the draft needed to be snatched up. If he starts out slow or loses the job then I will cut and run.

Round 27
This was a pick I didn’t want to make but was absolutely necessary. Brandon Lyon was still on the board. A closer should not be available this late in the draft. This makes 6 closers on my squad which is at least 1 too many. I will simply attempt to deal Lyon (either by himself or in a package) to try and upgrade elsewhere, ideally on offense. My target team will be the one that grabbed Tony Pena in round 22.

Round 28
My strategy going into the draft was to take my catcher in the last round. In a 10 team, 1 catcher league this strategy is quite effective. This year I am willing to speculate on Carlos Ruiz, Chris Snyder and Mike Napoli. In my two drafts this year I have been able to grab Ruiz in the last round. If he produces then I’m happy. If not I will drop him for either Snyder or Napoli (both undrafted as expected). I used this strategy in 2004 and grabbed Victor Martinez in the last round of all of my drafts. I am not expect that magnitude of success but I’m sure I can get top 10 catcher value while still waiting until the endgame to grab my starter.

Concluding Thoughts
So here is my final squad:

C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: B.J. Upton
3B: David Wright
SS: Rafael Furcal
CI: Conor Jackson
MI: Rickie Weeks
LF: Carlos Lee
CF: Corey Hart
RF: Nick Markakis
OF: Jeremy Hermida
OF: Michael Bourn
Util: Kevin Kouzmanoff
BN: Austin Kearns

SP: John Smoltz
SP: Francisco Liriano
SP: Yovani Gallardo
SP: Matt Cain
SP: Ted Lilly
RP: Mariano Rivera
RP: Matt Capps
RP: Brad Lidge
P: Kerry Wood
P: C.J. Wilson
BN: Brandon Lyon
BN: Manny Parra
BN: Mark Prior
BN: Edinson Volquez

I should be fine with speed. My strategy for tackling speed in this format is to walk away with at least 100 projected SBs and to have them spread out as much as possible. My first 5 picks should provide me with roughly 45 SBs while the likes of Weeks, Furcal and Bourn should bring that total past 110. My power is solid but unspectacular. I have quite a few 30 HR guys (or potential 30 HR guys). OPS might be a slight problem but that was not a category that I focused on pre-draft.

On the pitching side I feel like I should dominate K, SV, ERA and WHIP. That alone should give me an edge on a weekly basis (4 out of 7 categories). All in all I am please with how this draft unfolded. Let me know your thoughts.